8 ms·

Watch how fast people are upgrading to iOS 7

126 points by suhail 13y ago

kalleboo 13y ago
Cool! I'll be staring at this all night :) Countdown until it hits 45%... <HN overly negative nitpicky mode> Times with no timezones are really useless. I'm not quite sure if this graph has been broken for the past 8 hours or if if the 0% areas are time that hasn't passed. Logic says the former, but in that case, I can't even figure out what timezone this is supposed to be. Hawaii? </nitpick>
- suhail 13y ago
  Sorry, we raced to get this out (decided to today) and don't usually report hourly numbers. The timezone is UTC.
  - kalleboo 13y ago
    It's definitely not 11 AM in UTC right now, I can see that out my window :)
brownBananas 13y ago
Where is this data coming from?
- suhail 13y ago
  We aggregate data across tons of our customers (anonymously, of course) - Mixpanel.com
- andrewcooke 13y ago
  people without ghostery installed.
- ramenmeal 13y ago
  I don't know but I don't believe the data. Apparently in the last couple hours people have been downgrading to iOS 5 or lower.
  - piggity 13y ago
    Could be that the active user base of mixpanel has dropped slightly while people are offline to upgrade. Would depend on exactly how their metrics are being gathered. None-the-less I find it amazing that ~20% of their sample base is already upgraded.
  - megablast 13y ago
    This could mean more people were logging in to those particular apps from old iOs5 phones.
Aldo_MX 13y ago
I was going to tell that the website didn't work but I figured I had to tell Ghostery to whitelist Mixpanel on mixpanel.com
calvin_c 13y ago
It took me a moment to realize that the data defaulted to 0%, and I thought that something drastic had happened in the last hour.
- adestefan 13y ago
  It looks like it broke around 1600 and 1700. I just thought it was because there was just no data past that (it's currently 1600 EDT,) but the post above said the times are UTC.
- celoyd 13y ago
  I took a break from dealing with an in-band null problem in image data to check HN, and here’s this. Oof. Don’t represent missing data with a value in the same domain as real data. Maybe I’m just grumpy, but that seems like a clear, persuasive, and generally realistic goal. In cases where you’re constrained to break that rule, at least approximate it. For example, if you’re stuck using strictly floats for a percentage like this one – without recourse to an undefined/null/none type – you can still use -1.0 or Inf or NaN and not draw the lines.
  - wonderzombie 13y ago
    You're not just grumpy. I think this is a good practice in general. Or maybe it's just you and I; when someone does not do this, I go cross-eyed. It does introduce the null reference problem, but that's what it's there for and if you're not going to invent a nil-object, let's not try to paper it over. IMHO it's better to make it explicit. I think this graph is awesome, BTW; I just liked your comment. I sympathize with folks putting something together quickly, for fun, and of course we've all written bugs into our programs. I also enjoy discussing programming philosophy.
JoeCortopassi 13y ago
For reference, JellyBean 4.2 is still at 8.6% a year after release[1] [1] http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html
- eknkc 13y ago
  When Android came along as a strong competitor to iOS, I remember reading about OTA updates and thinking "How come we are still updating via freaking iTunes? I hate this shit from Apple..". At some point I got an Android, had to root and install CM to upgrade after waiting a long time for OTA update. Then I got a Lumia 920 last year to see the development opportunity on WP8, had to wait for an update (Portico?) to roll out on my carrier for months after it's US release. Got rid of it sometime later. My iPhone 5 is downloading the iOS 7 update right now.
  - Osiris 13y ago
    I have never owned an iOS device, but this is the one area that competitors have not been able to match, and I don't fully understand why. Google tried with the Handset Alliance but that basically didn't work at all. Microsoft tried to make carriers allow them to release updates directly but they couldn't get that to work either. It seems like only Apple has enough money-making power for carriers to tell the carrier to go screw themselves.
    - ianstormtaylor 13y ago
      True. Apple didn't always offer the stream the updates over the air, and they've always been good about getting the new OS pushed out. I think another part of it is that iPhone users are more likely (or at least were) to plug their phones into their computers, use iTunes, and be prompted to update their phones. That part didn't deal with the carriers at all.
    - TheEskimo 13y ago
      > I don't fully understand why It's pretty simple - Apple owns the hardware and software they're pushing updates for. Sure, they don't own the carriers, but that's not the problem. In Google's case they neither own the hardware nor all the software because each third party phone manufacturer slaps in its own stuff and maintains its own fork of android. Microsoft might own the software, but they don't fully own the hardware. Microsoft is a lot closer to managing it than Google though. This isn't that Apple has more power over carriers and it isn't hard to understand - it's simply that they have more ownership of all the devices and there are far fewer types of devices (very limited set of software/hardware combinations).
Arnor 13y ago
~ 3 hours after release iOS7 adoption rate ~ 10% > 1 year after release Windoze 8 adoption rate ~ 7%
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- Recoil42 13y ago
  Windows 8 is a paid update. Comparing the two is ludicrous.
- RobAtticus 13y ago
  Pretty disingenuous comparison. One is a smartphone OS, the other is a desktop OS which makes up the majority of enterprise systems.
  - alayne 13y ago
    I read stats somewhere that Windows 7 is less than half of all Windows installs. XP is still very common.
    - fancyketchup 13y ago
      Windows XP checking in, and I know of at least one other lab still using 2000 (for, IIRC, a thermogravimetric analysis machine). The problem is drivers: Lots of very spendy equipment (test, measurement, fabrication, etc) needs a host PC to run, and often needs a specific OS version because the manufacturer decided to EOL the product. It is not unusual for a $50 OS upgrade to necessitate hundreds of thousands of dollars of software and hardware upgrades. So we just don't upgrade the OS.
    - RobAtticus 13y ago
      Looks like XP is the 2nd most common variant of Windows according to this page on Wikipedia[1]. I'm sure there are ways to criticize/pick apart the different sampling techniques used, but none have XP above 7 anymore. Certainly not a non-trivial amount of XP machines out there though. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system_usage_share https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system_usage_share
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
jobu 13y ago
I've had the update downloaded for a few hours now, but it keeps failing on "Verifying update..." After a couple minutes of spinning, it says "Software Update Unavailable".
- calvin_c 13y ago
  The servers are down. It could be a few hours before the problems are fixed.
- xutopia 13y ago
  I had that a few times as well... kept retrying and it worked only when I unplugged from laptop. Not sure if it's related or not.
  - Zakuzaa 13y ago
    It appears to be related as after reading your comment I unplugged and tried again. It worked.
hnriot 13y ago
I wish I'd stayed on iOS6, the animations can't be turned off and make me nauseous. Thankfully the floaty parallax nonsense can be turned off. This mixpanal page never got passed the loading data display, but I also saw a bunch of errors in the dwev console too.
- colmvp 13y ago
  What annoys me is that it feels unpolished. The system options screen, app buttons with stock looking icons placed on ultra vibrant gradients, poorly spaced typography... it's flat taken too far.
Aloisius 13y ago
Interesting. Mixpanel reports that iOS 7 adoption was at 3% before the release. 3% of iOS users are developers? That's pretty crazy if true.
- vor_ 13y ago
  The GM also leaked on torrent sites and other sources.
- kalleboo 13y ago
  You could buy developer account device slots for $5-10 for people who just wanted to try the beta and look cool among their peers.
  - statictype 13y ago
    You could buy developer account device slots for $5-10 Sorry? how does that work? When you get a developer account (for $100) you can distribute to up to 10 devices right? Are you saying you can pay extra for more devices? Is that possible?
    - kalleboo 13y ago
      Each developer account can register 100 devices. People would sign up for a developer account, then go on eBay etc and sell "get iOS 7 beta for $10!", register the customer's UDID on their dev account, and send them a copy of the ipfw.
- pohl 13y ago
  My impression, from following some tags like #ios7beta4 on Twitter, is that there's some unofficial way to obtain the images and install them.
- zuppy 13y ago
  It was possible to install the betas on non developer iphones by using the upgrade button in itunes (it doesn't require activation). Also, the GM doesn't require activation.
kalleboo 13y ago
Looks like Apple's activation servers are down now from all the people updating at once. My girlfriend had to reset her phone for the iOS 7 update, and now it won't activate. She needs it for work today, bad timing... Twitter is full of similar stories. And on my end, the whole iTunes store seems down. iTunes desktop will load pages after a minute or two, but on the phone it just times out.
pooriaazimi 13y ago
There's also David Smith's stats (he's added an hourly widget): http://david-smith.org/iosversionstats/ http://david-smith.org/iosversionstats/ Currently iOS 7 is at 4.6%
stevenspasbo 13y ago
My company just had to block the apple servers because so many people were trying to update it hosed our network.
- jusben1369 13y ago
  Funny. I believe it.
gokulk 13y ago
0.5% reverted back to iOS6 at the end of the day ?

126 points by suhail 13y ago

Cool! I'll be staring at this all night :) Countdown until it hits 45%... <HN overly negative nitpicky mode> Times with no timezones are really useless. I'm not quite sure if this graph has been broken for the past 8 hours or if if the 0% areas are time that hasn't passed. Logic says the former, but in that case, I can't even figure out what timezone this is supposed to be. Hawaii? </nitpick>

suhail 13y ago
Sorry, we raced to get this out (decided to today) and don't usually report hourly numbers. The timezone is UTC.
- kalleboo 13y ago
  It's definitely not 11 AM in UTC right now, I can see that out my window :)

brownBananas 13y ago

Where is this data coming from?

suhail 13y ago
We aggregate data across tons of our customers (anonymously, of course) - Mixpanel.com
andrewcooke 13y ago
people without ghostery installed.
ramenmeal 13y ago
I don't know but I don't believe the data. Apparently in the last couple hours people have been downgrading to iOS 5 or lower.
- piggity 13y ago
  Could be that the active user base of mixpanel has dropped slightly while people are offline to upgrade. Would depend on exactly how their metrics are being gathered. None-the-less I find it amazing that ~20% of their sample base is already upgraded.
- megablast 13y ago
  This could mean more people were logging in to those particular apps from old iOs5 phones.

Aldo_MX 13y ago

I was going to tell that the website didn't work but I figured I had to tell Ghostery to whitelist Mixpanel on mixpanel.com

calvin_c 13y ago

It took me a moment to realize that the data defaulted to 0%, and I thought that something drastic had happened in the last hour.

adestefan 13y ago
It looks like it broke around 1600 and 1700. I just thought it was because there was just no data past that (it's currently 1600 EDT,) but the post above said the times are UTC.
celoyd 13y ago
I took a break from dealing with an in-band null problem in image data to check HN, and here’s this. Oof. Don’t represent missing data with a value in the same domain as real data. Maybe I’m just grumpy, but that seems like a clear, persuasive, and generally realistic goal. In cases where you’re constrained to break that rule, at least approximate it. For example, if you’re stuck using strictly floats for a percentage like this one – without recourse to an undefined/null/none type – you can still use -1.0 or Inf or NaN and not draw the lines.
- wonderzombie 13y ago
  You're not just grumpy. I think this is a good practice in general. Or maybe it's just you and I; when someone does not do this, I go cross-eyed. It does introduce the null reference problem, but that's what it's there for and if you're not going to invent a nil-object, let's not try to paper it over. IMHO it's better to make it explicit. I think this graph is awesome, BTW; I just liked your comment. I sympathize with folks putting something together quickly, for fun, and of course we've all written bugs into our programs. I also enjoy discussing programming philosophy.

JoeCortopassi 13y ago

For reference, JellyBean 4.2 is still at 8.6% a year after release[1] [1] http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html

eknkc 13y ago
When Android came along as a strong competitor to iOS, I remember reading about OTA updates and thinking "How come we are still updating via freaking iTunes? I hate this shit from Apple..". At some point I got an Android, had to root and install CM to upgrade after waiting a long time for OTA update. Then I got a Lumia 920 last year to see the development opportunity on WP8, had to wait for an update (Portico?) to roll out on my carrier for months after it's US release. Got rid of it sometime later. My iPhone 5 is downloading the iOS 7 update right now.
- Osiris 13y ago
  I have never owned an iOS device, but this is the one area that competitors have not been able to match, and I don't fully understand why. Google tried with the Handset Alliance but that basically didn't work at all. Microsoft tried to make carriers allow them to release updates directly but they couldn't get that to work either. It seems like only Apple has enough money-making power for carriers to tell the carrier to go screw themselves.
  - ianstormtaylor 13y ago
    True. Apple didn't always offer the stream the updates over the air, and they've always been good about getting the new OS pushed out. I think another part of it is that iPhone users are more likely (or at least were) to plug their phones into their computers, use iTunes, and be prompted to update their phones. That part didn't deal with the carriers at all.
  - TheEskimo 13y ago
    > I don't fully understand why It's pretty simple - Apple owns the hardware and software they're pushing updates for. Sure, they don't own the carriers, but that's not the problem. In Google's case they neither own the hardware nor all the software because each third party phone manufacturer slaps in its own stuff and maintains its own fork of android. Microsoft might own the software, but they don't fully own the hardware. Microsoft is a lot closer to managing it than Google though. This isn't that Apple has more power over carriers and it isn't hard to understand - it's simply that they have more ownership of all the devices and there are far fewer types of devices (very limited set of software/hardware combinations).

Arnor 13y ago

~ 3 hours after release iOS7 adoption rate ~ 10% > 1 year after release Windoze 8 adoption rate ~ 7%

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
Recoil42 13y ago
Windows 8 is a paid update. Comparing the two is ludicrous.
RobAtticus 13y ago
Pretty disingenuous comparison. One is a smartphone OS, the other is a desktop OS which makes up the majority of enterprise systems.
- alayne 13y ago
  I read stats somewhere that Windows 7 is less than half of all Windows installs. XP is still very common.
  - fancyketchup 13y ago
    Windows XP checking in, and I know of at least one other lab still using 2000 (for, IIRC, a thermogravimetric analysis machine). The problem is drivers: Lots of very spendy equipment (test, measurement, fabrication, etc) needs a host PC to run, and often needs a specific OS version because the manufacturer decided to EOL the product. It is not unusual for a $50 OS upgrade to necessitate hundreds of thousands of dollars of software and hardware upgrades. So we just don't upgrade the OS.
  - RobAtticus 13y ago
    Looks like XP is the 2nd most common variant of Windows according to this page on Wikipedia[1]. I'm sure there are ways to criticize/pick apart the different sampling techniques used, but none have XP above 7 anymore. Certainly not a non-trivial amount of XP machines out there though. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system_usage_share https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system_usage_share

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

jobu 13y ago

I've had the update downloaded for a few hours now, but it keeps failing on "Verifying update..." After a couple minutes of spinning, it says "Software Update Unavailable".

calvin_c 13y ago
The servers are down. It could be a few hours before the problems are fixed.
xutopia 13y ago
I had that a few times as well... kept retrying and it worked only when I unplugged from laptop. Not sure if it's related or not.
- Zakuzaa 13y ago
  It appears to be related as after reading your comment I unplugged and tried again. It worked.

hnriot 13y ago

I wish I'd stayed on iOS6, the animations can't be turned off and make me nauseous. Thankfully the floaty parallax nonsense can be turned off. This mixpanal page never got passed the loading data display, but I also saw a bunch of errors in the dwev console too.

colmvp 13y ago
What annoys me is that it feels unpolished. The system options screen, app buttons with stock looking icons placed on ultra vibrant gradients, poorly spaced typography... it's flat taken too far.

Aloisius 13y ago

Interesting. Mixpanel reports that iOS 7 adoption was at 3% before the release. 3% of iOS users are developers? That's pretty crazy if true.

vor_ 13y ago
The GM also leaked on torrent sites and other sources.
kalleboo 13y ago
You could buy developer account device slots for $5-10 for people who just wanted to try the beta and look cool among their peers.
- statictype 13y ago
  You could buy developer account device slots for $5-10 Sorry? how does that work? When you get a developer account (for $100) you can distribute to up to 10 devices right? Are you saying you can pay extra for more devices? Is that possible?
  - kalleboo 13y ago
    Each developer account can register 100 devices. People would sign up for a developer account, then go on eBay etc and sell "get iOS 7 beta for $10!", register the customer's UDID on their dev account, and send them a copy of the ipfw.
pohl 13y ago
My impression, from following some tags like #ios7beta4 on Twitter, is that there's some unofficial way to obtain the images and install them.
zuppy 13y ago
It was possible to install the betas on non developer iphones by using the upgrade button in itunes (it doesn't require activation). Also, the GM doesn't require activation.

kalleboo 13y ago

Looks like Apple's activation servers are down now from all the people updating at once. My girlfriend had to reset her phone for the iOS 7 update, and now it won't activate. She needs it for work today, bad timing... Twitter is full of similar stories. And on my end, the whole iTunes store seems down. iTunes desktop will load pages after a minute or two, but on the phone it just times out.

pooriaazimi 13y ago

There's also David Smith's stats (he's added an hourly widget): http://david-smith.org/iosversionstats/ http://david-smith.org/iosversionstats/ Currently iOS 7 is at 4.6%

stevenspasbo 13y ago

My company just had to block the apple servers because so many people were trying to update it hosed our network.

jusben1369 13y ago
Funny. I believe it.

gokulk 13y ago

0.5% reverted back to iOS6 at the end of the day ?