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Apple’s “Windows 95″ Problem
- saturdaysaint 13y agoThis has been the reaction to every iPhone announcement after the inital iPhone - "Meh, it's like the last iPhone with 2 new features". Remember the reaction to the first iPad? Yep, "Meh". These reactions are noise.
- ambirex 13y agoI doubt the market sell off yesterday had anything to do with how well the products will sell (I'm guessing we will soon hear that it is "The best selling iPhone ever"). Rather, it is more likely to do with downward pressure on profit margins of the iPhone. Sure the plastic cover of the 5c will help, but there are still a bunch of expensive components inside.
- binxbolling 13y agoIt's bizarre to lump Win XP in with duds like Me and Vista. Isn't XP, by most measures, an unmitigated success? (You might not think it's great personally, but it's certainly not the case that MS has had no blockbusters since Win 95.)
- purephase 13y agoI'd say that Windows 7 was an unmitigated success. As for XP, without a doubt. Considering it still holds the second largest market share (behind Win7). Impressive given that it is 12 years old now.
- probablyfiction 13y agoXP was the first decent Windows release since Windows 95, and consumers adopted it en masse. However, it was riddled with security flaws and that makes it less attractive when looking at it in hindsight.
- masklinn 13y ago> XP was the first decent Windows release since Windows 95 I'm sure you mean "2000" not "XP".
- probablyfiction 13y agoWhat I should have said was that XP was the first decent consumer-focused release since Windows 95. 2000 had a good codebase, but an abysmal adoption rate.
- masklinn 13y ago> 2000 had a good codebase, but an abysmal adoption rate. Yes, which kinda-sorta was expected as it was still considered part of the NT-line and not a consumer OS, and WinME was released after it. Still, it was a perfectly good consumer OS (IIRC, 2000 was the original merge point of the NT and 9x lines, then the building base for Project Neptune which fell through and ultimately lead to Whistler after 2000's release), much better than WinME could ever be, and I only reluctantly switched to WinXP (to try AoE III which refused to install on 2000, of all things)
- pjmlp 13y agoActually NT 4 was already quite good. As soon as I got access to Windows NT 4 Workstation, it became my Windows default install, alongside Mandrake Linux back in the day.
- aluhut 13y agoI liked 2k pretty much. I was good for their time and I wish MS would have continued to make operating systems for people who just need an operating system.
- rbanffy 13y agoXP was the first consumer OS with the NT kernel. It was a success but it was never recognized as very innovative. Which it wasn't. Even Microsoft gave it a point release (5.1) on top of Windows 2000 (5.0)
- 3825 13y agoAnecdotal but when I upgraded from Windows 2000 to Windows XP, I actually noticed faster boot time. It still took over three minutes on my old machine though.
- Cthulhu_ 13y agoIt wasn't innovative if you were looking at the basic features, but for consumers, it was the first update from Windows 95 or 98, and bringing them an (at the time) fresh and new OS built on top of a new (for them) kernel with a bunch of features that made it that much better. Of course, I'd say XP wasn't 'done' until SP 2, given how it quickly became the primary target for virusses and whatnot.
- JonnieCache 13y agoI heard that the sell off was due to the lack of a deal with China Telecom which the markets were expecting to be announced, and had already priced in.
- gutnor 13y agoPeople fail to realise that traders also use all the Apple rumors to make their purchase decision. The market value of Apple before the keynote reflect (to some extend) the value of Apple if all the rumors were true. There was a lot of positive hype that did not concretize during the keynote: no deal with China, expensive iPhone5C, no iWatch. The adjustment we see today has little to do with actual Apple offering. Not much that can be concluded from it either.
- rbanffy 13y agoActually, Apple did catch a lot of these "once in a lifetime" waves. It's true they don't have a Steve Jobs, but it's also true nobody else has.
- S_A_P 13y agoIt is very similar to the problem they faced against Windows 95 with the macintosh. Microsoft was focusing on building a commodity OS and not worried about the hardware while commodity hardware vendors were able to focus on their strengths without having to fuss to much about hardware. Apple, being so vertically integrated will probably lag behind somewhat. Its just way more complex to design end to end, even if the final product is better integrated and more "finished". However, I am not really sure that the Android or Windows Phones are really all that more innovative. Sure they can throw in a 50 core chip and a 15" screen, but in the end there is little real differentiation between phones right now. I think apple should allow for larger screens, as my hands are larger than the average person so I can still use one hand on a Galaxy, for example.(but just barely) This is really everyones "windows 95" problem. The market is pretty mature and at this point there is only room for iterative improvement. In fact many of the latest mobile innovations seem to have frightening privacy and security concerns- mobile payments, NFC, location context are difficult to do well and securely.
- notatoad 13y agohas there ever been an apple product announcement that didn't cause the stock to dip immediately afterwards?
- gavinlynch 13y agoSince when has "the market" had any clue about innovation?
- sambeau 13y agoThe stock pretty much always falls after Apple announce something. I assume the reasons are complex — anything new is a risk, anything old is a lower-margin version. Historically, you cannot make any accurate predictions of Apple's success or failure based on The Market's reaction to a keynote. That leaves the other point: "Meh". Yes, I'm sure everyone wants Apple to announce something groundbreaking and industry defining. I'm sure Apple do too. Maybe they will again or maybe they won't. Either way I'm sure Tim Cook has a better idea of how to do it than the bloggersphere.
- JoelSutherland 13y agoApple stock has been up 4/7 times the day after the announcement of an iPhone.
- vor_ 13y agoWhat are the numbers when counting non-iPhone announcements? Apple's stock dropping after a keynote isn't uncommon.
- badman_ting 13y agoUsing the stock market as a judge is tricky. I agree that the price of AAPL is a poor indicator of how their products will perform in the market is folly. However, Steve Ballmer not moving MSFT in ten years really was a problem. It is not unprecedented for Apple to release what appears to be an incremental revision of a product (or even a "worse" one) to great commercial success, and that is probably what will happen with the 5C. This tends to happen when the product in question is not "for" the pundit class, who in their write-ups see the product's value proposition differently than the people who end up buying it in droves. To put it diplomatically. I guess what I'm saying is, if you've been around long enough, you have seen many people portend Apple's doom. Sometimes they even have arguments that make a lot of sense, which is nice. But you learn to ignore it, because none of it has come true so far.
- jinushaun 13y agoWith the right marketing, the C in 5C doesn't stand for cheap. Most likely, only tech nerds will make that comparison. Regular consumers will probably focus on the fun colors instead. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple spend more money marketing the 5C than the 5S to train consumers to think that way. They did that successfully with the Shuffle –no screen!!! It's safe to assume they'll be as successful with the 5C.
- TruthSHIFT 13y agoWhy is iOS 7 being perceived as "not innovative?" If your innovations are only in software, do they not count?
- noir_lord 13y ago> Apple in time will need to move away from the iPhone and iPad, as they will become a commodity. As someone who already owns a Nexus 4 and a 1st gen Nexus 7 they are already a commodity, I bought my N4 for half what an iPhone 5 costs. The only thing that keeps Apple even remotely price comparable on the iPhone is that people mostly buy a smart phone on contract so they see roughly the same price per month (but the carrier takes a much bigger cut with Android). For someone old enough to just remember the 80's and the Mac vs PC wars it's like watching history repeat itself again, the completely backwards commodity platform vs the well engineered but more costly platform except this time Google is in IBM's place and they aren't doing it by accident like IBM did they know exactly what they are doing (look at the nexus line, top of the line hardware, always the newest version of the software and price that hurts other companies using Android, they risk hurting their own suppliers to drive the price of high end hardware down as rapidly as possible) the problem is that the commodity platform gained ground very very quickly and something like the Nexus 4 at 200 quid with Android 4.3 is now the equal of the iPhone 5 at 500 quid. The next 5 years is going to be fun to watch whichever side of the divide you are on.
- alayne 13y agoGoogle doesn't make any money off their Nexus devices. They sell them close to cost. Unless Apple is planning to convert itself into an advertising company (like Google), I don't think holding out the Nexus branded devices as an example to follow is reasonable. Samsung is really the only player making significant money in the Android space. I think it makes more sense to look at what they are doing.
- hazov 13y agoIt's now written on the wall for everyone to see that devices will fall in price in the next decade and with it will go profit margins, money will be made by volume of sales, Samsung is just where like Nokia once was in this place, Google just want to accelerate that because it makes business sense to them. Apple already realized that as their recent announcement demonstrated.
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- grandalf 13y agoKeep in mind what Apple has been doing with the proceeds of its amazing cash cow: - smart moves to economize the supply chain - attempting to simplify/unify its various OSes. - hinting at a lower price point future (inevitable). - focusing on patented industrial design (lightning connector, new mac pro, etc.) - taking away carrier margins (iMessage) - notably ignoring "enterprise users" and focusing on making consumers happy. In the next year or two I expect Apple to start gunning for market share. It's amazing how much Android has lagged, and Apple has decided to err on the side of profits while Android has blundered along releasing phones with 4 hour battery life and jittery screens. Apple envisions a future in which you can seamlessly move between mobile, web (iCloud), and desktop/laptop experiences and you get the same high quality experience. I expect Apple to push boldly into the gaming market as well as (somewhat ironically) into web or web-enabled app ecosystem.
- JonFish85 13y agoI agree with your bullet points, but my take on the future is that they'll move towards an integrated TV/cable box. I imagine that the content providers are next on Apple's target list. It's an area rife for a takeover--it's stuck in the 1950's model and to me that's where Apple does great work. Now they may use the gaming market to get there. Just as a mind-experiment, I've wondered what would happen if Apple bought Nintendo, to get a living room presence.
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- untog 13y agoAndroid has blundered along releasing phones with 4 hour battery life and jittery screens. If that's the reason, then I suspect Apple have waited too long. Android phones (and the OS itself) has gone on a long, long way in the last year or two. It has a coherent UI and great performance now.
- grandalf 13y agoYou might be right about that. My impression is that the IOS experience is still qualitatively better, so it'll be interesting to see if a lower price point iPhone impacts market share shifts...
- Shorel 13y agoThat's how marketing people think. I care more about the closed nature of the platform. I want to change many things without having to root the device. A more open platform in technical terms would be awesome. More peripherals, more software, more freedom.
- mkhalil 13y agoIt used to be I bought Apple products at a premium price to be ahead of the curve in technology. For instance, Retina Screens on Phones, Thunderbolt ports, lightweight quad core notebooks. Now I find myself waiting for Apple to play catch up and release NFC on an iPhone, or HASWELL MACBOOK PROS/Retina (that I can't believe we don't have yet). The Macbook Pros used to be the first of popular laptops to use the latest processors. Now what am I paying the premium price for again?
- mkhalil 13y agoSadly the answer to this question is iOS development for many people.
- derefr 13y agoIf Apple haven't released NFC by now, they're not gonna. They might throw up a slide at some point in a year or two pointing out how little Android users actually use NFC, right before announcing that they've managed to get extremely-low-power Bluetooth autonegotiation with auth-token-push on thumbprint-confirmation working, or something.
- mason240 13y ago>Retina Screens on Phones There was actually several android phones a better screen resolution than a Retina display when it came out, they just didn't have a marketing term attached to them.
- Cthulhu_ 13y ago> Now what am I paying the premium price for again? The current-generation Macbooks? * High performance * Retina display * Tiny package * OSX * Status I'm not a fanboy, but I'm looking forward to being allowed to pick out a new macbook late this year or early next. Will probably wait for the new batch, this 2011 model I work with atm is still awesome. My previous dev machine (at an assignment) was a Core I7, 32 GB monster... but it ran on Ubuntu and didn't feel as nippy or awesome as this macbook. The OS does make an important difference. But I digress / ramble.
- Roboprog 13y agoWindows 95 problem? Did Apple make an overhyped system that was a steaming, crashing, pile? You remember: "Start me up! ... You'd make a grown man cry----y!" I guess 95 sold, but man it was awful. I switched to Linux about 6 months earlier. The real innovation for MS was earlier in NT, but MS wasn't pushing that to consumers. Comparing iOS to Win95 just seems like a totally off comparison. Maybe comparing iOS to XBox would be a better comparison from a tech standpoint, but I'm not sure MS made so much money from XBox. XBox grew quite a bit at first, but now seems stalled on dubious increments. That seems a better parallel for iOS to me.
- samspenc 13y agoBut it was a smash hit and a better product, compared to Windows 3.11. ;)
- superuser2 13y agoI have yet to see a "commodity" smartphone or tablet that was nearly as stable or reliable as an iOS device, didn't have the UX destroyed by manufacturer customization, and wasn't abandoned by its manufacturer and never updated again just a few months into the two-year upgrade cycle. Has the Android ecosystem actually solved these problems yet?
- general_failure 13y agoOnly one way to find out.
- hacknat 13y agoI love how a 4 hour sell-off somehow means "the market" has uttered its final pronouncement on Apple's latest product lineup.
- brudgers 13y agoApple's challenge is that they have been iterating by adding features to the iPod for more than a decade. Adding a phone, and touch, and software and a bigger screen have worked because they have found a way to do so profitably and at scale. They sold because they provided new kinds of uses. But in the end, it's the electronics industry and the efficiency of supply and manufacturing pipelines is increasing faster than Apple's demand - i.e. the companies which make up the pipeline are growing their businesses beyond meeting Apple's demands and Apple's competitors are able to utilize that capacity to make their operations more efficient. The seed change is that Apple is increasingly marketing their products on specifications rather than differences of kind. Retina was the first example of "now with more of what we already have." Adding a quad-core processor is just a faster horse not an airplane.
- kybernetyk 13y ago> The market is telling Apple that it is not innovative enough Which market? The smart phone market? Because I think the new iPhones will sell as well as the prior models. Or does the author mean the 'stock market' ... which to me is more a casino than a real market. If people buy iPhones and Apple makes truckloads of money then ... well ... fuck the stock market gamblers.
- nsxwolf 13y ago"The market is telling Apple that it is not innovative enough and that its need to do much more" The stock market might be saying that but the "people who buy phones" market seems to be pretty happy with what Apple is doing.
- vor_ 13y agoApple stock dropping after a keynote is not uncommon. I hear this dismissal of Apple products from techies nearly every time they announce anything. It's such a common phenomena that John Gruber calls it "claim chowder". People at one time thought the iPod mini was too expensive and that nobody would want it, and they considered the iPad little more than a "big iPod touch" that sounded like a feminine hygiene product (seriously). Apple is pretty good at understanding what regular people want, and techies tend not to be so understanding. The claim that reaction to the presentation was a "collective meh" is unfounded.
- mattkevan 13y agoI don't understand why people expect Apple to release a market-shaking new product every year and are actively disappointed and say things like 'Apple are done innovating' when it doesn't happen. This is not how it works. Firstly, products that go to new places take a long time to get right. Apple worked on the iPhone and iPad for years before they were released. In fact Apple started on the iPad before the iPhone. Secondly, if there's too many changes too quickly any impact each may have is lessened. If in 2007 after releasing the iPhone Apple's management said 'Right, we've done this touch screen stuff. Let's come up with a different interface method', the iPhone (and touchscreen computing in general) would not be the force it is today. Implications of each change need time to sink in and be explored properly. Thirdly, it's not how Apple works. They come up with a new product category once or twice a decade and iterate on it annually year until it becomes mature. Fourthly, who knows what else Apple's been working on over the last few years? The attitude assumes that there's nothing more going on, that some of the world's brightest people with practically unlimited resources are just watching cat videos all day. Now Apple may well be done innovating, but for the author to say that without any actual knowledge seems hasty, and more like he's disappointed he didn't get a pony.