4 ms·

Luck is not a Factor

25 points by duggieawesome 13y ago

Fuzzwah 13y ago
"The more you know, the more luck you have." http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/ http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/
mpyne 13y ago
While I firmly believe that one helps 'make their own luck', saying that chance/luck/fate/what-have-you plays no role is silly at best. At worst, it tends to convince 'winners' that they had almost everything to do with their victories, and correspondingly that the 'losers' also bear almost all of the blame for their defeats. It's easy to say that someone should have simply worked harder when you didn't notice that they had to work hard simply to escape the grasp of bad luck and circumstance to limp to the starting line...
gcatalfamo 13y ago
I loved the storytelling, but I won't comment to avoid spoilers! well done sir
auggierose 13y ago
You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith. Choose your poison.
- lutusp 13y ago
  > You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith. That's called a false choice, but I think you knew that. :)
- auggierose 13y ago
  I actually meant Fate, not Faith :-)
iamwil 13y ago
So the OP says that a lot of little experiences add up to being able to divine the tiger in the brush. My question is, how do you get that sixth sense? As far as I can tell, there's no shortcut. You have to do a lot of things, and see a lot of different scenarios, and get burned along the way. The only one I can think of is to talk in confidence with people more experienced than you in a particular arena as scenarios arise. Has anyone else found another way to build or harness a sixth sense that the OP is talking about?
- marcosdumay 13y ago
  From my experience, whatching people around me, there is no shortcut, but most people take needless long paths, doing lots of circles and going back from time to time. Just telling them that it is worth something to go forward is a huge help.
- narag 13y ago
  IME there is some kind of resistance mechanism that prevents me from seeing truth, specially if it is unfavourable, but not only. The ability to overcome that resistance counts as a sixth sense for me.
AznHisoka 13y ago
Luck is not a factor.. except when it comes to getting hired by your dream company, getting venture capital, getting acquired, and getting a hot girl to say "Yes".
- outworlder 13y ago
  And is any of that... "luck"? What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream company? What skills and networking have you had previously before being able to convince VCs? If that hot girl said "yes", doesn't it mean you had to approach her first and manage to convince her? There are thousands of opportunities passing us by every year. But we are only prepared to recognize a handful and even less prepared to take advantage of them. Now, the specific circunstances that lead to, say, Instagram's acquisition can be called "luck", in hindsight. But they were in a position to take advantage of the deal, it is not as if they just found a lottery ticket on the street.
  - AznHisoka 13y ago
    Of course, luck isn't the sole factor, but it's a factor, and a major one. Luck was a factor for you being alive right here and now, and for Earth to be a hospitable place to live. It's everywhere.
  - mpyne 13y ago
    > What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream company? Qualifications (and really, all the stuff you mention) simply punch you a ticket to the race. But those things don't give you victory, and you often don't even know or get a chance to compete on many of the other factors that get you chosen (consciously or unconsciously). E.g. the 'hot girl', if you're 5'8" and she prefers a guy who is 6'2", good luck "working hard" to overcome that. The same applies in reverse, how many girls have been rejected because they are flat-chested or have the 'wrong' hair color? How many otherwise qualified candidates have been rejected because they didn't have the right 'intangibles'? How many people have screwed up networking because they ordered the wrong kind of drink? How many pitches have gone awry because a carefully-rehearsed presentation team had the pitchman get sick in the hotel? Sure, you could wear an anti-microbial mask to try to prevent that, but at some point luck will track you down. Operational Risk Management isn't about eliminating chance, it's about mitigating it. But in the end you're still crossing your fingers, and that applies everywhere in life.
presidentender 13y ago
I really want to read Rodney's blog post.

25 points by duggieawesome 13y ago

"The more you know, the more luck you have." http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/ http://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/07/14/luck/

mpyne 13y ago

While I firmly believe that one helps 'make their own luck', saying that chance/luck/fate/what-have-you plays no role is silly at best. At worst, it tends to convince 'winners' that they had almost everything to do with their victories, and correspondingly that the 'losers' also bear almost all of the blame for their defeats. It's easy to say that someone should have simply worked harder when you didn't notice that they had to work hard simply to escape the grasp of bad luck and circumstance to limp to the starting line...

gcatalfamo 13y ago

I loved the storytelling, but I won't comment to avoid spoilers! well done sir

auggierose 13y ago

You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith. Choose your poison.

lutusp 13y ago
> You have two options: You can either believe in Luck, or in Faith. That's called a false choice, but I think you knew that. :)
auggierose 13y ago
I actually meant Fate, not Faith :-)

iamwil 13y ago

So the OP says that a lot of little experiences add up to being able to divine the tiger in the brush. My question is, how do you get that sixth sense? As far as I can tell, there's no shortcut. You have to do a lot of things, and see a lot of different scenarios, and get burned along the way. The only one I can think of is to talk in confidence with people more experienced than you in a particular arena as scenarios arise. Has anyone else found another way to build or harness a sixth sense that the OP is talking about?

marcosdumay 13y ago
From my experience, whatching people around me, there is no shortcut, but most people take needless long paths, doing lots of circles and going back from time to time. Just telling them that it is worth something to go forward is a huge help.
narag 13y ago
IME there is some kind of resistance mechanism that prevents me from seeing truth, specially if it is unfavourable, but not only. The ability to overcome that resistance counts as a sixth sense for me.

AznHisoka 13y ago

Luck is not a factor.. except when it comes to getting hired by your dream company, getting venture capital, getting acquired, and getting a hot girl to say "Yes".

outworlder 13y ago
And is any of that... "luck"? What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream company? What skills and networking have you had previously before being able to convince VCs? If that hot girl said "yes", doesn't it mean you had to approach her first and manage to convince her? There are thousands of opportunities passing us by every year. But we are only prepared to recognize a handful and even less prepared to take advantage of them. Now, the specific circunstances that lead to, say, Instagram's acquisition can be called "luck", in hindsight. But they were in a position to take advantage of the deal, it is not as if they just found a lottery ticket on the street.
- AznHisoka 13y ago
  Of course, luck isn't the sole factor, but it's a factor, and a major one. Luck was a factor for you being alive right here and now, and for Earth to be a hospitable place to live. It's everywhere.
- mpyne 13y ago
  > What about the qualifications you had in order to be hired by the dream company? Qualifications (and really, all the stuff you mention) simply punch you a ticket to the race. But those things don't give you victory, and you often don't even know or get a chance to compete on many of the other factors that get you chosen (consciously or unconsciously). E.g. the 'hot girl', if you're 5'8" and she prefers a guy who is 6'2", good luck "working hard" to overcome that. The same applies in reverse, how many girls have been rejected because they are flat-chested or have the 'wrong' hair color? How many otherwise qualified candidates have been rejected because they didn't have the right 'intangibles'? How many people have screwed up networking because they ordered the wrong kind of drink? How many pitches have gone awry because a carefully-rehearsed presentation team had the pitchman get sick in the hotel? Sure, you could wear an anti-microbial mask to try to prevent that, but at some point luck will track you down. Operational Risk Management isn't about eliminating chance, it's about mitigating it. But in the end you're still crossing your fingers, and that applies everywhere in life.

presidentender 13y ago

I really want to read Rodney's blog post.