15 ms·

Let me gently remind everyone that one success or failure is not completely deterministic. A single business failure or short-term success doesn't say much abo

Let me gently remind everyone that one success or failure is not completely deterministic. A single business failure or short-term success doesn't say much about someone as a founder. That his/her interest and drive can be made to fit the current market conditions plus still more relatively intangible luck in other areas factor heavily in any end result. Founders who have successfully built and sold, say at least three companies for millions each over a period of years would tell me this person has a genuine talent for entrepreneurship. Best to go for it, and if it takes off get all you can while it's there to be had, setting aside an untouchable personal nest egg as soon as you can. You should have a feel for the business so if a good offer comes along when your gut tell you that it has perhaps plateaued or peaked take that as an exit sign. If it doesn't take off don't be discouraged, know when to make that exit too.

rgbrenner 13y ago
"Founders who have successfully built and sold, say at least three companies for millions each over a period of years would tell me this person has a genuine talent for entrepreneurship." No.. it tells you this person is a lower risk than someone without a track record or a worse track record. History is filled with people and companies who had a string of successes followed by failures. Those people weren't talented one day, and untalented the next.
- OldSchool 13y ago
  Good point, financial and even hierarchical corporate success prior to any entering into any new venture changes at least a person's level of hunger and drive in most cases.
- Dylan16807 13y ago
  Don't get so excited to point out bad statistics that you bias yourself in the opposite direction. You need the number of founders of this kind of company, and the overall success ratio, before you can start judging skill vs. luck with any certainty.

rgbrenner 13y ago

"Founders who have successfully built and sold, say at least three companies for millions each over a period of years would tell me this person has a genuine talent for entrepreneurship." No.. it tells you this person is a lower risk than someone without a track record or a worse track record. History is filled with people and companies who had a string of successes followed by failures. Those people weren't talented one day, and untalented the next.

OldSchool 13y ago
Good point, financial and even hierarchical corporate success prior to any entering into any new venture changes at least a person's level of hunger and drive in most cases.
Dylan16807 13y ago
Don't get so excited to point out bad statistics that you bias yourself in the opposite direction. You need the number of founders of this kind of company, and the overall success ratio, before you can start judging skill vs. luck with any certainty.