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Car analogies don't really work because cars don't have the same powerful network effects that hardware + software ecosystems do. Once you're down to < %20 mark

Car analogies don't really work because cars don't have the same powerful network effects that hardware + software ecosystems do. Once you're down to < %20 market share you lose a lot of your ability to drive tech your way. The analogy also fails because the public increasingly perceives the premium Android handsets to be equal to or better than the iPhone. This is particularly serious when, like Apple, you refuse to make your key services cross-platform. For example, I can't really use iMessage because at this point very few of the people I correspond with use iPhones. So at exactly what point should Apple start to worry enough about being relegated to niche status to start addressing the middle segment of the market more seriously?

seanmcdirmid 13y ago
So you mean, the android app ecosystem is so much healthier than apple's given their larger market share? Does reality mean anything here?
- cageface 13y ago
  What's with the rudeness? "Reality" is that indie devs are struggling on both platforms, big game makers are doing well on both platforms, and the apps that matter the most on both platforms are increasingly those made by Google itself. Apple's sliding market share means their proprietary ecosystem is increasingly irrelevant to even iOS users.
  - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
    You made some big claims that network effects should be hurting iOS already, when its obvious opposite is still true (iOS is a healthier ecosystem than Android in spite of its lower marketshare). According to your explanation, given how phones are not like cars, the iPhone ecosystem should already be in decay. Whether its tough for indies or not is irrelevant; there is much more money to be made for app developers in iOS than Android. It is not obvious that Apple could win, or even survive, by going after the low end, or by being more general. Apple is great as a premium brand, but as a shoddy value brand like Samsung? Their attempt at getting a majority of phone profit share would wind up killing their brand and destroy the money they make in non-phone products. This is especially true in Asian countries like China where the iPhone is still a must have for the high end; where Google also happens to be less relevant (for better or worse). How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Just install WeChat and forget about it.
    - cageface 13y ago
      You made some big claims that network effects should be hurting iOS already, when its obvious opposite is still true (iOS is a healthier ecosystem than Android in spite of its lower marketshare). I've made no such claim. My claim is that the network effects which have previously helped Apple (iTunes, iCloud, iMessage, exclusive apps etc) depend on a non-niche market share and inter-product synergy. They're approaching a dangerous tipping point here, IMO. How many iPhone users no longer sync to iTunes, for example? It is not obvious that Apple could win, or even survive, by going after the low end, or by being more general. Apple is great as a premium brand, but as a shoddy value brand like Samsung? They've done nothing but lose ground since Jobs died. The time to try alternative strategies is now. Plus, there's a lot of livable room between a premium brand and junk brand. Apple can continue to charge a premium over Android, IMO, but not the extreme premium they've enjoyed since 2007. How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Just install WeChat and forget about it. Apple should care about this because it's one fewer thing keeping people from easily switching to another brand. More and more the apps people care about are available on other platforms and that shifts the debate to cost and/or other features like screen size, stylus support etc.
    - rdouble 13y ago
      How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Over 250 million. 2 billion iMessages are sent per day.
      - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
        WeChat is much bigger than that.
        rdouble 13y ago
        WeChat has 300 million users according to Wikipedia.

seanmcdirmid 13y ago

So you mean, the android app ecosystem is so much healthier than apple's given their larger market share? Does reality mean anything here?

cageface 13y ago
What's with the rudeness? "Reality" is that indie devs are struggling on both platforms, big game makers are doing well on both platforms, and the apps that matter the most on both platforms are increasingly those made by Google itself. Apple's sliding market share means their proprietary ecosystem is increasingly irrelevant to even iOS users.
- seanmcdirmid 13y ago
  You made some big claims that network effects should be hurting iOS already, when its obvious opposite is still true (iOS is a healthier ecosystem than Android in spite of its lower marketshare). According to your explanation, given how phones are not like cars, the iPhone ecosystem should already be in decay. Whether its tough for indies or not is irrelevant; there is much more money to be made for app developers in iOS than Android. It is not obvious that Apple could win, or even survive, by going after the low end, or by being more general. Apple is great as a premium brand, but as a shoddy value brand like Samsung? Their attempt at getting a majority of phone profit share would wind up killing their brand and destroy the money they make in non-phone products. This is especially true in Asian countries like China where the iPhone is still a must have for the high end; where Google also happens to be less relevant (for better or worse). How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Just install WeChat and forget about it.
  - cageface 13y ago
    You made some big claims that network effects should be hurting iOS already, when its obvious opposite is still true (iOS is a healthier ecosystem than Android in spite of its lower marketshare). I've made no such claim. My claim is that the network effects which have previously helped Apple (iTunes, iCloud, iMessage, exclusive apps etc) depend on a non-niche market share and inter-product synergy. They're approaching a dangerous tipping point here, IMO. How many iPhone users no longer sync to iTunes, for example? It is not obvious that Apple could win, or even survive, by going after the low end, or by being more general. Apple is great as a premium brand, but as a shoddy value brand like Samsung? They've done nothing but lose ground since Jobs died. The time to try alternative strategies is now. Plus, there's a lot of livable room between a premium brand and junk brand. Apple can continue to charge a premium over Android, IMO, but not the extreme premium they've enjoyed since 2007. How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Just install WeChat and forget about it. Apple should care about this because it's one fewer thing keeping people from easily switching to another brand. More and more the apps people care about are available on other platforms and that shifts the debate to cost and/or other features like screen size, stylus support etc.
  - rdouble 13y ago
    How many iOS users even bother with iMessage? Over 250 million. 2 billion iMessages are sent per day.
    - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
      WeChat is much bigger than that.
      - rdouble 13y ago
        WeChat has 300 million users according to Wikipedia.