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The graph accompanying the article doesn't show a gradual change in the pro-life direction. The proportion calling themselves "pro-life" stayed in the mid-fort

by sethg 17y ago

The graph accompanying the article doesn't show a gradual change in the pro-life direction. The proportion calling themselves "pro-life" stayed in the mid-forties through 2001-2008 and then spiked this year. And your model of different reproductive rates for blue-state vs. red-state people assumes that children have the same values as their parents. I know quite a few folks who were raised in red states and fled them.

tjic 17y ago
> And your model of different reproductive rates for blue-state vs. red-state people assumes that children have the same values as their parents. I know quite a few folks who were raised in red states and fled them. Anecdote != data. There are "defections" in both directions. Even if kids have the same values as their parents 51% of the time, you'll see the effect.
- sethg 17y ago
  Yes, but is the defection rate in both directions equal? If conservative parents have been having more children than liberal parents for the past few decades, then why hasn't the voting population become more conservative since Reagan was president?
  - mtinkerhess 17y ago
    This sounds like a question for Wolfram: ((birth rate of pro-life families) * (rate of (children of pro-life families) that are pro-life)) vs. ((birth rate of pro-choice families) * (rate of (children of pro-choice families) that are pro-choice))
  - jimbokun 17y ago
    "If conservative parents have been having more children than liberal parents for the past few decades, then why hasn't the voting population become more conservative since Reagan was president?" Is this a joke? We just finished one of the most pronounced conservative swings in American history, with all 3 branches of federal government and many local governments all under Republican control. How much more conservative did it have to get to convince you? The Republicans really had to do massive amounts of damage to get Obama elected and break the trend. His election does not, in and of itself, prove that the U.S. has decisively shifted away from conservatism. If he is perceived to have some success, it might, but it is still to early to say for sure.

by sethg 17y ago

tjic 17y ago

> And your model of different reproductive rates for blue-state vs. red-state people assumes that children have the same values as their parents. I know quite a few folks who were raised in red states and fled them. Anecdote != data. There are "defections" in both directions. Even if kids have the same values as their parents 51% of the time, you'll see the effect.

sethg 17y ago
Yes, but is the defection rate in both directions equal? If conservative parents have been having more children than liberal parents for the past few decades, then why hasn't the voting population become more conservative since Reagan was president?
- mtinkerhess 17y ago
  This sounds like a question for Wolfram: ((birth rate of pro-life families) * (rate of (children of pro-life families) that are pro-life)) vs. ((birth rate of pro-choice families) * (rate of (children of pro-choice families) that are pro-choice))
- jimbokun 17y ago
  "If conservative parents have been having more children than liberal parents for the past few decades, then why hasn't the voting population become more conservative since Reagan was president?" Is this a joke? We just finished one of the most pronounced conservative swings in American history, with all 3 branches of federal government and many local governments all under Republican control. How much more conservative did it have to get to convince you? The Republicans really had to do massive amounts of damage to get Obama elected and break the trend. His election does not, in and of itself, prove that the U.S. has decisively shifted away from conservatism. If he is perceived to have some success, it might, but it is still to early to say for sure.