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This seems an overly simplistic discussion of a single chart. Is it ethnic Russians leaving these countries? Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to r

This seems an overly simplistic discussion of a single chart. Is it ethnic Russians leaving these countries? Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions?

gruseom 13y ago
A blog post will inevitably oversimplify a demographic chart involving millions of people. It's still an interesting chart. The sudden drop in one year, as the article points out, was likely because of the economic crisis. As for whether it's ethnic Russians leaving the country, it's not obvious to me why that is the first thing that matters; most discussions on population and economics don't immediately leap to ethnicity, do they?
- seanmcdirmid 13y ago
  Of course ethnicity matters. If most of the outflow is Russian, then to intentionally ignore that connection is intellectually dishonest.
  - gruseom 13y ago
    Of course there's no question of intentionally ignoring anything. My question is about the economics. Presumably, the economic significance of population decline has to do with its effect on GDP, growth, and the like. It's not obvious (is it?) which of these questions have answers that change depending on the ethnicity of who comes or goes. There's also the question of whether the outflow does in fact consist mostly of Russians. Is there data on this? No one has presented any here, and the various comments in the thread contradict one another.
    - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
      It would be extremely useful to know if the outflow are a lot of say "aging Russians" or "young Estonian/Latvians", as each would have extremely different implications. The fact that the information is missing in the article means we can only speculate. Perhaps the information is obscured or those statistics aren't collected, but without knowing, it is much more difficult to find the cause and ultimately come up with a solution.
throwaway_yy2Di 13y ago
Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions? That seems to be the case. This is from the same source as these population figures (Eurostat): http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Crude_rates_of_population_change,_2009-2011_(per_1_000_inhabitants).png&filetimestamp=20130129110717 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.... In footnote (3) it says emigration figures for Lithuania -- the largest of the Baltics -- are overstated in 2010 and 2011. Those years include emigrants who had left in previous years but hadn't been counted.

This seems an overly simplistic discussion of a single chart. Is it ethnic Russians leaving these countries? Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions?

gruseom 13y ago

A blog post will inevitably oversimplify a demographic chart involving millions of people. It's still an interesting chart. The sudden drop in one year, as the article points out, was likely because of the economic crisis. As for whether it's ethnic Russians leaving the country, it's not obvious to me why that is the first thing that matters; most discussions on population and economics don't immediately leap to ethnicity, do they?

seanmcdirmid 13y ago
Of course ethnicity matters. If most of the outflow is Russian, then to intentionally ignore that connection is intellectually dishonest.
- gruseom 13y ago
  Of course there's no question of intentionally ignoring anything. My question is about the economics. Presumably, the economic significance of population decline has to do with its effect on GDP, growth, and the like. It's not obvious (is it?) which of these questions have answers that change depending on the ethnicity of who comes or goes. There's also the question of whether the outflow does in fact consist mostly of Russians. Is there data on this? No one has presented any here, and the various comments in the thread contradict one another.
  - seanmcdirmid 13y ago
    It would be extremely useful to know if the outflow are a lot of say "aging Russians" or "young Estonian/Latvians", as each would have extremely different implications. The fact that the information is missing in the article means we can only speculate. Perhaps the information is obscured or those statistics aren't collected, but without knowing, it is much more difficult to find the cause and ultimately come up with a solution.

throwaway_yy2Di 13y ago

Why the sudden drop in one year, which seems to represent a change of definitions? That seems to be the case. This is from the same source as these population figures (Eurostat): http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Crude_rates_of_population_change,_2009-2011_(per_1_000_inhabitants).png&filetimestamp=20130129110717 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.... In footnote (3) it says emigration figures for Lithuania -- the largest of the Baltics -- are overstated in 2010 and 2011. Those years include emigrants who had left in previous years but hadn't been counted.