7 ms·

Of course, you still need someone to actually make the delivery; even a self-driving car can't really give a person a package. At least, not yet.

cinquemb 13y ago
That is true. I guess it just made me wonder since he was going over how much trouble incorporating the human element into the equations is, and maybe trying to do without might be more practical (or maybe more predictable) going forward.
gizmo686 13y ago
For consumer deliveries at least. However, (I suspect) much of the trucker industry goes to businesses, which would be much more willing to have an employee unload the truck when it arrives.
- saosebastiao 13y ago
  Truck drivers don't get commercial licenses so they can drive a truck across the country on a highway. They get them to prove that they can back a truck up, turn around tight corners, not run over pedestrians, and most importantly, to be able to navigate an unpredictable, and sometimes rapidly changing world...one where a loading dock might be underground, or it might be around back in that tight alley that doesn't look an inch over 9ft wide...and where your route may go as planned, but it may also require a detour at moments notice because the Highway Patrol is hurredly moving cars off the road so they can set a spike strip to catch a vehicle in a high speed chase. That isn't to glamorize nor humanize the profession...merely to show the obstacles that truck drivers deal with that are still too fringe to be modeled correctly or trusted in a non-supervised environment. There may be a not-so-distant future where driverless trucks take over long haul drives, with actual drivers handling the last mile. But don't expect the trucker to die quite so quickly.
  - lostlogin 13y ago
    Watching a 16+ wheeler go down a winding driveway backwards when its only got about 1 foot of space on each side is far more entertaining and impressive than half the events at the Olympics. I could watch this all day.
  - gizmo686 13y ago
    Are any of those problems substantially more difficult for a computer to handle than they are with a normal car?
    - sp332 13y ago
      Trucks are larger and heavier. That means they take a lot longer to stop, so you have predict things around you further ahead. Also, you can't jackknife a car - I'm guessing the physics of driving a Mac truck with a heavy trailer and 18 wheels is a lot more complex.
      - cinquemb 13y ago
        But the physics (mass of the load/center of mass of the truck load system, their moments of inertia, N on each of the tires , etc) can be factored into the equations and solved in real time, no? How far is the line of sight for google self-driving cars?
  - alanctgardner2 13y ago
    Shouldn't it be possible to build stations where self-driving trucks can easily stop, and drivers can take over for the "last mile"? This eliminates the dangerous, boring part, allows drivers much more stable lives, but doesn't eliminate them entirely
  - alooPotato 13y ago
    I wonder if we'll even need trucks. Instead of large trucks carrying lots of goods, what about having more vehicles each carrying less stuff. Something like a cargo van. I wonder if the reason we use large trucks is so that we can have only one driver and not pay for more. I wonder if having multiple vans instead of a single truck uses a similar amount of fuel (per pound of cargo).
NicoJuicy 13y ago
Actually, delivering a package is nothing more then someone who walks in the truck and using a QR-Code (smartphone) as authentication. Or just let them put a NFC sticker on their smartphone to automate it more.. (Explanation is simple, execution is something else though) PS. The only problem i really see, is making deliveries in snow (can't detect the road).
- shawabawa3 13y ago
  > The only problem i really see, is making deliveries in snow (can't detect the road). Surely they can use sonar/radar to see the road through the snow?
  - NicoJuicy 13y ago
    Not really, it's one of the problems (so i've read) Google's automated car is still struggling to handle. Road, Bicycle part of the road, road marks, ...
chiph 13y ago
How would a pneumatic cannon that launched my package from the truck at the curb be any different from the current driver who slings it from the driveway onto my doorstep?
- mikeash 13y ago
  UPS would no longer be able to deny that this is what happens!

cinquemb 13y ago

That is true. I guess it just made me wonder since he was going over how much trouble incorporating the human element into the equations is, and maybe trying to do without might be more practical (or maybe more predictable) going forward.

gizmo686 13y ago

For consumer deliveries at least. However, (I suspect) much of the trucker industry goes to businesses, which would be much more willing to have an employee unload the truck when it arrives.

saosebastiao 13y ago
Truck drivers don't get commercial licenses so they can drive a truck across the country on a highway. They get them to prove that they can back a truck up, turn around tight corners, not run over pedestrians, and most importantly, to be able to navigate an unpredictable, and sometimes rapidly changing world...one where a loading dock might be underground, or it might be around back in that tight alley that doesn't look an inch over 9ft wide...and where your route may go as planned, but it may also require a detour at moments notice because the Highway Patrol is hurredly moving cars off the road so they can set a spike strip to catch a vehicle in a high speed chase. That isn't to glamorize nor humanize the profession...merely to show the obstacles that truck drivers deal with that are still too fringe to be modeled correctly or trusted in a non-supervised environment. There may be a not-so-distant future where driverless trucks take over long haul drives, with actual drivers handling the last mile. But don't expect the trucker to die quite so quickly.
- lostlogin 13y ago
  Watching a 16+ wheeler go down a winding driveway backwards when its only got about 1 foot of space on each side is far more entertaining and impressive than half the events at the Olympics. I could watch this all day.
- gizmo686 13y ago
  Are any of those problems substantially more difficult for a computer to handle than they are with a normal car?
  - sp332 13y ago
    Trucks are larger and heavier. That means they take a lot longer to stop, so you have predict things around you further ahead. Also, you can't jackknife a car - I'm guessing the physics of driving a Mac truck with a heavy trailer and 18 wheels is a lot more complex.
    - cinquemb 13y ago
      But the physics (mass of the load/center of mass of the truck load system, their moments of inertia, N on each of the tires , etc) can be factored into the equations and solved in real time, no? How far is the line of sight for google self-driving cars?
- alanctgardner2 13y ago
  Shouldn't it be possible to build stations where self-driving trucks can easily stop, and drivers can take over for the "last mile"? This eliminates the dangerous, boring part, allows drivers much more stable lives, but doesn't eliminate them entirely
- alooPotato 13y ago
  I wonder if we'll even need trucks. Instead of large trucks carrying lots of goods, what about having more vehicles each carrying less stuff. Something like a cargo van. I wonder if the reason we use large trucks is so that we can have only one driver and not pay for more. I wonder if having multiple vans instead of a single truck uses a similar amount of fuel (per pound of cargo).

NicoJuicy 13y ago

Actually, delivering a package is nothing more then someone who walks in the truck and using a QR-Code (smartphone) as authentication. Or just let them put a NFC sticker on their smartphone to automate it more.. (Explanation is simple, execution is something else though) PS. The only problem i really see, is making deliveries in snow (can't detect the road).

shawabawa3 13y ago
> The only problem i really see, is making deliveries in snow (can't detect the road). Surely they can use sonar/radar to see the road through the snow?
- NicoJuicy 13y ago
  Not really, it's one of the problems (so i've read) Google's automated car is still struggling to handle. Road, Bicycle part of the road, road marks, ...

chiph 13y ago

How would a pneumatic cannon that launched my package from the truck at the curb be any different from the current driver who slings it from the driveway onto my doorstep?

mikeash 13y ago
UPS would no longer be able to deny that this is what happens!