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Number of US public companies in 1997: 8800. Number today: 4100. Total stock market index fund return adjusted for inflation between 1997 and today: 0%.
by pmarca 13y ago
Number of US public companies in 1997: 8800. Number today: 4100. Total stock market index fund return adjusted for inflation between 1997 and today: 0%.
- _delirium 13y agoAnd if you add the year 2003 to those two cherry-picked years, do you still see a correlation between total stock-market returns and number of public companies?
- muzz 13y agoAgreed. Here's the data in chart form, it looks nothing like total stock-market return (the 2008 collapse and subsequent rebound is nowhere to be found, etc): http://blogs-images.forbes.com/sageworks/files/2012/05/PublicCompanies1990_2011.png http://blogs-images.forbes.com/sageworks/files/2012/05/Publi...
- cj 13y agoHow do you figure 0%? S&P 500 has increased 124% since 1997, not adjusted for inflation. Google finance graph: http://bit.ly/1d7JXnm http://bit.ly/1d7JXnm
- _delirium 13y agoTotal returns would actually be almost double that, since that graph doesn't include dividends, which historically account for just under half of total returns.
- adventured 13y agoA 2% dividend wouldn't even remotely come close to doubling the 124%x S&P return since 1997. It's a nice booster shot, nothing more.
- adventured 13y agoMost common price measurements have increased by 100%+ since 1997 (in many cases a lot more), from housing to commodities. There's a very strong case to be made that the real rate of inflation has just about wiped out all stock market returns since the mid to late 1990s. I don't know if it's 0%, but even 20% inflation adjusted over 16 years is a very bad return.
- hga 13y agoAnd let's not forget you pay taxes on those nominal dollar capital gains.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]