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Hong Kong Banking System Outlook Cut by Moody’s on China Risks

29 points by lignuist 13y ago

kybernetyk 13y ago
I'm sure this has nothing to do with Snowden.
- gasull 13y ago
  Is this sarcasm? The new rating is probably right. Maybe the timing looks suspicious, but the new rating would have come sooner or later. There's a collusion of US Government and big corporations, but rating agencies have been pissing off Washington, so I don't think in this case there is collusion.
  - adventured 13y ago
    The S&P pissed off Washington with a downgrade (shortly after which they got charged with fraud and sued for $5 billion by the Feds), but I'm not aware that Moody's has done anything to really piss off Washington.
    - thenewkid 13y ago
      Don't forget Egan-Jones! "The trouble for the firm started on July 16, 2011, when Egan-Jones downgraded the U.S.’s sovereign debt by one notch, to AA+ from AAA... Two days later, the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations contacted the firm seeking information about its rating decision... on Oct. 12, Egan-Jones received a call from the SEC notifying the firm of a Wells Notice, an indication that it was being investigated. On April 5 of this year, Egan-Jones again downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt, to AA from AA+. On April 19, leaks started emanating from the SEC that it had voted to start an “administrative law proceeding” against the firm. And on April 24, the SEC filed its complaint." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/sec-sues-the-one-rating-firm-not-on-wall-street-s-take.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/sec-sues-the-one-ra...
- contingencies 13y ago
  Exactly what I was thinking. Moodys is headquartered in the World Trade Center and is about as establishment socio-political-economic world order as you can poke a stick at.
- hga 13y ago
  Try this search, china credit four winds, e.g. https://www.google.com/search?q=china+credit+four+winds https://www.google.com/search?q=china+credit+four+winds, to learn about what appears to be a Maoist style top down credit crunch. E.g. from the U.K. Financial Times (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c2f126c-d982-11e2-bab1-00144feab7de.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c2f126c-d982-11e2-bab1-00144...): "Echoes of Mao in China cash crunch By Simon Rabinovitch in Shanghai ©AFP As China’s credit crunch takes a turn for the worse, the question of why the central bank has permitted market conditions to deteriorate so suddenly and so sharply looms ever larger. [ Details on the credit crunch and possible causes. ] But in the midst of the extreme market stress, a statement issued late Wednesday by the central bank raised the possibility that politics are also playing an important role. [...] the People’s Bank of China ordered a thorough implementation of the new “mass line education” campaign launched this week by President Xi Jinping – a campaign that in its propaganda-style and potential scope carries echoes of the Mao era. The Communist party cadres that run the central bank were told to attack the "four winds" of “formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism and extravagance”, as demanded by Mr Xi...." It appears the purge of Bo Xilai and company did not signal this sort of thing would stay in the past. ADDED: Mass Line according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_line http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_line): "The Mass Line (from the Chinese qunzhong luxian) is the political, organizational and leadership method developed by Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Chinese revolution. As described in a Revolutionary Communist Party USA pamphlet, it is the "concentrate[d] .. correct ideas that the masses gain in everyday life", as gathered and published by the party. Mao developed it into a coherent organizing methodology that encompasses philosophy, strategy, tactics, leadership and organizational theory that has been applied by many Communists subsequent to the Chinese revolution. Chinese communist leaders generally attribute their conquest of power to the faithful pursuit of effective "mass line" tactics, and a "correct" mass line is supposed to be the essential prerequisite for the full consolidation of power. According to Frederick Teiwes, Emeritus Professor at the University of Sydney, the "mass line" was related to the CCP's mass organizations. "Fundamentally, for all the CCP rhetoric concerning the 'mass line,' the unions and other mass organizations functioned more as Stalinist "transmission belts" in laying down the party line and extending the reach of the state," he wrote." New leaders, new party line ... we'll see.
  - 13y ago
- SeanLuke 13y ago
  It does not.
  - blueprint 13y ago
    What is the evidence of your claim?
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
    - notahacker 13y ago
      Didn't Moody's actually upgrade Ecuador's sovereign debt rating shortly after they offered Assange asylum? I don't have the highest regard for the independence or accuracy of the ratings agencies, but I somehow doubt they care particularly either way about whether a nation's policies on extradition suit US interests. And placing the burden of providing evidence on someone arguing against tinfoilhattery is just silly.
      - r00fus 13y ago
        I agree this downgrade is likely coincidental with Snowden's HK departure However, consider that Assange is neutralized as long as he's trapped in the Ecuadoran embassy, whereas Snowden is "at large". Slight difference there.
    - SystemOut 13y ago
      And what evidence is there of the claim that this has anything to do with Snowden?
      - blueprint 13y ago
        That is a good and valid question, but I have doubts about your willingness to confirm its answer.
    - SkyMarshal 13y ago
      China's credit crunch has been brewing long before Snowden hit the scene. Just coincidence it's coming to a head now, nothing to do with Snowden.
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

29 points by lignuist 13y ago

kybernetyk 13y ago

I'm sure this has nothing to do with Snowden.

gasull 13y ago
Is this sarcasm? The new rating is probably right. Maybe the timing looks suspicious, but the new rating would have come sooner or later. There's a collusion of US Government and big corporations, but rating agencies have been pissing off Washington, so I don't think in this case there is collusion.
- adventured 13y ago
  The S&P pissed off Washington with a downgrade (shortly after which they got charged with fraud and sued for $5 billion by the Feds), but I'm not aware that Moody's has done anything to really piss off Washington.
  - thenewkid 13y ago
    Don't forget Egan-Jones! "The trouble for the firm started on July 16, 2011, when Egan-Jones downgraded the U.S.’s sovereign debt by one notch, to AA+ from AAA... Two days later, the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations contacted the firm seeking information about its rating decision... on Oct. 12, Egan-Jones received a call from the SEC notifying the firm of a Wells Notice, an indication that it was being investigated. On April 5 of this year, Egan-Jones again downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt, to AA from AA+. On April 19, leaks started emanating from the SEC that it had voted to start an “administrative law proceeding” against the firm. And on April 24, the SEC filed its complaint." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/sec-sues-the-one-rating-firm-not-on-wall-street-s-take.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-30/sec-sues-the-one-ra...
contingencies 13y ago
Exactly what I was thinking. Moodys is headquartered in the World Trade Center and is about as establishment socio-political-economic world order as you can poke a stick at.
hga 13y ago
Try this search, china credit four winds, e.g. https://www.google.com/search?q=china+credit+four+winds https://www.google.com/search?q=china+credit+four+winds, to learn about what appears to be a Maoist style top down credit crunch. E.g. from the U.K. Financial Times (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c2f126c-d982-11e2-bab1-00144feab7de.html http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c2f126c-d982-11e2-bab1-00144...): "Echoes of Mao in China cash crunch By Simon Rabinovitch in Shanghai ©AFP As China’s credit crunch takes a turn for the worse, the question of why the central bank has permitted market conditions to deteriorate so suddenly and so sharply looms ever larger. [ Details on the credit crunch and possible causes. ] But in the midst of the extreme market stress, a statement issued late Wednesday by the central bank raised the possibility that politics are also playing an important role. [...] the People’s Bank of China ordered a thorough implementation of the new “mass line education” campaign launched this week by President Xi Jinping – a campaign that in its propaganda-style and potential scope carries echoes of the Mao era. The Communist party cadres that run the central bank were told to attack the "four winds" of “formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism and extravagance”, as demanded by Mr Xi...." It appears the purge of Bo Xilai and company did not signal this sort of thing would stay in the past. ADDED: Mass Line according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_line http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_line): "The Mass Line (from the Chinese qunzhong luxian) is the political, organizational and leadership method developed by Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Chinese revolution. As described in a Revolutionary Communist Party USA pamphlet, it is the "concentrate[d] .. correct ideas that the masses gain in everyday life", as gathered and published by the party. Mao developed it into a coherent organizing methodology that encompasses philosophy, strategy, tactics, leadership and organizational theory that has been applied by many Communists subsequent to the Chinese revolution. Chinese communist leaders generally attribute their conquest of power to the faithful pursuit of effective "mass line" tactics, and a "correct" mass line is supposed to be the essential prerequisite for the full consolidation of power. According to Frederick Teiwes, Emeritus Professor at the University of Sydney, the "mass line" was related to the CCP's mass organizations. "Fundamentally, for all the CCP rhetoric concerning the 'mass line,' the unions and other mass organizations functioned more as Stalinist "transmission belts" in laying down the party line and extending the reach of the state," he wrote." New leaders, new party line ... we'll see.
- 13y ago
SeanLuke 13y ago
It does not.
- blueprint 13y ago
  What is the evidence of your claim?
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - notahacker 13y ago
    Didn't Moody's actually upgrade Ecuador's sovereign debt rating shortly after they offered Assange asylum? I don't have the highest regard for the independence or accuracy of the ratings agencies, but I somehow doubt they care particularly either way about whether a nation's policies on extradition suit US interests. And placing the burden of providing evidence on someone arguing against tinfoilhattery is just silly.
    - r00fus 13y ago
      I agree this downgrade is likely coincidental with Snowden's HK departure However, consider that Assange is neutralized as long as he's trapped in the Ecuadoran embassy, whereas Snowden is "at large". Slight difference there.
  - SystemOut 13y ago
    And what evidence is there of the claim that this has anything to do with Snowden?
    - blueprint 13y ago
      That is a good and valid question, but I have doubts about your willingness to confirm its answer.
  - SkyMarshal 13y ago
    China's credit crunch has been brewing long before Snowden hit the scene. Just coincidence it's coming to a head now, nothing to do with Snowden.

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]