4 ms·

Jeremy Rifkin - 1995 - The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Work

by jerrya 13y ago

Jeremy Rifkin - 1995 - The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Work http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Work In 1995, Rifkin contended that worldwide unemployment would increase as information technology eliminated tens of millions of jobs in the manufacturing, agricultural and service sectors. He predicted devastating impact of automation on blue-collar, retail and wholesale employees. While a small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers would reap the benefits of the high-tech world economy, the American middle class would continue to shrink and the workplace become ever more stressful. As the market economy and public sector decline, Rifkin predicted the growth of a third sector—voluntary and community-based service organizations—that would create new jobs with government support to rebuild decaying neighborhoods and provide social services. To finance this enterprise, he advocated scaling down the military budget, enacting a value added tax on nonessential goods and services and redirecting federal and state funds to provide a "social wage" in lieu of welfare payments to third-sector workers. -------------- Jeremy Rifkin - 2005 http://www.foet.org/press/interviews/Spiegel-%20August%203%202005.pdf http://www.foet.org/press/interviews/Spiegel-%20August%203%2... European politicians often like to blame outsourcing for the disappearance of jobs. But in reality the work isn't going to the Chinese --it's going to the robots.

kenster07 13y ago
In the future, even this small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers (to which I belong) may not be needed either, as computers will become self-deterministic. What will be the real long-term solution when the value of a person to society can no longer even be roughly approximated by his income?
- cclogg 13y ago
  Maybe the future of the planet involves no humans (ie we all die off eventually)... just robots that can create themselves. Or maybe we stay on board, reaching a point where technology lets us live forever, and we just sun-tan all day with robots massaging us.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- rjtavares 13y ago
  Why would we need a solution? I find it tragic that the lack of need for forced labor is seen as a problem...
  - phryk 13y ago
    My thought exactly. Fuck work, we can have a lifestyle driven by curiosity and cooperation, full of open research and celebration; Imagine constantly living like you do at hacker cons and camps. When talking about this I often encounter people going "BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE FAT LAZY SLOBS WHO WON'T DO ANYTHING?!1!?" to which I can only reply: What about them? So a few people will sit around and do nothing. What's so bad about that if their labor isn't needed? It's not like a few lazy people will bring about the end of our civilization…
    - m0nty 13y ago
      > THOSE FAT LAZY SLOBS WHO WON'T DO ANYTHING To the people who hold that view (not you, clearly) I would say, I have never met anyone who doesn't do anything; the hopelessly unemployable people I've met have usually been a really poor match to the workplace. They don't like the 9-5, they don't like being told what to do, they don't like hierarchy. They tend to invest heavily in their hobbies and non-work interests. This is probably something which hackers and entrepreneurs can relate to, btw. Of course, it makes no sense to people who feel comfortable and warm inside a hierarchy, like to know their place, and like being told what to do (and, hopefully, acquiring a coterie which they in turn can tell what to do). Personally I share your vision of a more interesting and stimulating future free from the shackles of mandatory work and based around willing collaboration. I'm not sure it will happen though, if a small group of people with wealth can opt out of society altogether, except for using it as a source of greater wealth, on which they refuse to pay any tax. I'm not opposed to capitalism, btw, I just feel it should serve everyone, not just the few.
      - phryk 13y ago
        I'm not opposed to capitalism, btw, I just feel it should serve everyone, not just the few. Then that wouldn't be capitalism. Sounds like you want some sort of democratic economy. I personally am against capitalism, I think we don't even need money in the long run. I'm pretty sure we could obsolete it within the next few decades. Just distribute goods according to need…
- JoshTriplett 13y ago
  > In the future, even this small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers (to which I belong) may not be needed either, as computers will become self-deterministic. If that ever happens (and I hope that it does), the solution space will look more like "post-scarcity non-monetary economy" rather than "basic income".
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - netcan 13y ago
    egalitarian, classless & stateless society?
- iSnow 13y ago
  >as computers will become self-deterministic [citation needed] Also, the most problematic will be the transition phase, where 50% don't find work at all, most others only find low-paying jobs and a small elite has the highly-payed jobs and has to either support the others or emigrate.
  - levosmetalo 13y ago
    Do we really need these [citation needed] comments? It's clearly that someone expresses his own opinion, and thus needs no citation. Btw, you forgot the provide citation that in the transition phase 50% will not be able to find work at all.
kokey 13y ago
When this topic comes up, I tend to refer people to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment Rifkin's work also gets a mention there. What I find weird about the article posted here is that it treats it as a new thing, as if this time is so different that the only time it can be compared to is the industrial revolution.
Joeri 13y ago
They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened. Looking at the unemployment statistics for the past century, the trend line seems very weak: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1890-2011.gif http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1890-2011.... The history of technological innovation is that new job categories are created faster than old ones are lost. There are many job categories which will be opened up as a result of automation. We will see a shift to creative / performance jobs instead of mechanistic / routine jobs. Demand will be artificially created for the products of these new categories, just like it has been for more than a century (without artificially created demand the economy would collapse, as we consume a multiple of what we need). The demand will be focused on "unique", on products tailored by a human for an audience of one, but produced using mass-production technologies. The more renowned the bespoke designer, the higher the price tag will be. Still, if the singularity does happen and we end up in a true post-production society, I imagine it will look like the Culture (Iain M. Banks). Or at least, I hope it will.
- Sven7 13y ago
  Take a look at state government employees most of whom are middle class. A major portion of this labor force is involved in managing data. Rough guess ~30000 * 50 states=1500000. Pretty sure its a much bigger number. Facebook can manage the data of a billion people with 5000 employees.
- ThomPete 13y ago
  And yet slowly it has happened. It's the underlying reason why we haven't yet recovered from the financial bubble. A shift to creative/performance means talent an even more scarse resource than people with high education. Less jobs are created than lost. It is a real problem and can't just be brushed of this time.
- aaron695 13y ago
  > They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened. We have replaced jobs by consuming more. This concept growth is infinite is not practical(Or mathematically possible), and it's probably not linear either, when it hits and growth stops being able to replace lost jobs it could be sudden. Bespoke is interesting, but I'll probably only visit 1000 different houses in my lifetime etc 'Bespoke-esque' products will be able to be mass produced and appear unique, currently they are limited by space time, small markets overseas trips will have little meaning to goods in the future. Once 3D printers/scanners work well I can copy anything that an artist creates why would I buy it off them personally, especially since I'll probably be unemployed myself. Sure I'll go to a fancy humans serve me restaurant every now and again, probably when I'm young and hip, but normally I'll do what everyone else will do, get a excellent, cheap hassle free meal made to order served by automatons. Building and driving are dangerous jobs, it won't take many lawsuits before they get shut down for humans. More of a dystopian fan myself.

by jerrya 13y ago

kenster07 13y ago

In the future, even this small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers (to which I belong) may not be needed either, as computers will become self-deterministic. What will be the real long-term solution when the value of a person to society can no longer even be roughly approximated by his income?

cclogg 13y ago
Maybe the future of the planet involves no humans (ie we all die off eventually)... just robots that can create themselves. Or maybe we stay on board, reaching a point where technology lets us live forever, and we just sun-tan all day with robots massaging us.
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
rjtavares 13y ago
Why would we need a solution? I find it tragic that the lack of need for forced labor is seen as a problem...
- phryk 13y ago
  My thought exactly. Fuck work, we can have a lifestyle driven by curiosity and cooperation, full of open research and celebration; Imagine constantly living like you do at hacker cons and camps. When talking about this I often encounter people going "BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE FAT LAZY SLOBS WHO WON'T DO ANYTHING?!1!?" to which I can only reply: What about them? So a few people will sit around and do nothing. What's so bad about that if their labor isn't needed? It's not like a few lazy people will bring about the end of our civilization…
  - m0nty 13y ago
    > THOSE FAT LAZY SLOBS WHO WON'T DO ANYTHING To the people who hold that view (not you, clearly) I would say, I have never met anyone who doesn't do anything; the hopelessly unemployable people I've met have usually been a really poor match to the workplace. They don't like the 9-5, they don't like being told what to do, they don't like hierarchy. They tend to invest heavily in their hobbies and non-work interests. This is probably something which hackers and entrepreneurs can relate to, btw. Of course, it makes no sense to people who feel comfortable and warm inside a hierarchy, like to know their place, and like being told what to do (and, hopefully, acquiring a coterie which they in turn can tell what to do). Personally I share your vision of a more interesting and stimulating future free from the shackles of mandatory work and based around willing collaboration. I'm not sure it will happen though, if a small group of people with wealth can opt out of society altogether, except for using it as a source of greater wealth, on which they refuse to pay any tax. I'm not opposed to capitalism, btw, I just feel it should serve everyone, not just the few.
    - phryk 13y ago
      I'm not opposed to capitalism, btw, I just feel it should serve everyone, not just the few. Then that wouldn't be capitalism. Sounds like you want some sort of democratic economy. I personally am against capitalism, I think we don't even need money in the long run. I'm pretty sure we could obsolete it within the next few decades. Just distribute goods according to need…
JoshTriplett 13y ago
> In the future, even this small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers (to which I belong) may not be needed either, as computers will become self-deterministic. If that ever happens (and I hope that it does), the solution space will look more like "post-scarcity non-monetary economy" rather than "basic income".
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- netcan 13y ago
  egalitarian, classless & stateless society?
iSnow 13y ago
>as computers will become self-deterministic [citation needed] Also, the most problematic will be the transition phase, where 50% don't find work at all, most others only find low-paying jobs and a small elite has the highly-payed jobs and has to either support the others or emigrate.
- levosmetalo 13y ago
  Do we really need these [citation needed] comments? It's clearly that someone expresses his own opinion, and thus needs no citation. Btw, you forgot the provide citation that in the transition phase 50% will not be able to find work at all.

kokey 13y ago

When this topic comes up, I tend to refer people to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_unemployment Rifkin's work also gets a mention there. What I find weird about the article posted here is that it treats it as a new thing, as if this time is so different that the only time it can be compared to is the industrial revolution.

Joeri 13y ago

They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened. Looking at the unemployment statistics for the past century, the trend line seems very weak: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1890-2011.gif http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1890-2011.... The history of technological innovation is that new job categories are created faster than old ones are lost. There are many job categories which will be opened up as a result of automation. We will see a shift to creative / performance jobs instead of mechanistic / routine jobs. Demand will be artificially created for the products of these new categories, just like it has been for more than a century (without artificially created demand the economy would collapse, as we consume a multiple of what we need). The demand will be focused on "unique", on products tailored by a human for an audience of one, but produced using mass-production technologies. The more renowned the bespoke designer, the higher the price tag will be. Still, if the singularity does happen and we end up in a true post-production society, I imagine it will look like the Culture (Iain M. Banks). Or at least, I hope it will.

Sven7 13y ago
Take a look at state government employees most of whom are middle class. A major portion of this labor force is involved in managing data. Rough guess ~30000 * 50 states=1500000. Pretty sure its a much bigger number. Facebook can manage the data of a billion people with 5000 employees.
ThomPete 13y ago
And yet slowly it has happened. It's the underlying reason why we haven't yet recovered from the financial bubble. A shift to creative/performance means talent an even more scarse resource than people with high education. Less jobs are created than lost. It is a real problem and can't just be brushed of this time.
aaron695 13y ago
> They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened. We have replaced jobs by consuming more. This concept growth is infinite is not practical(Or mathematically possible), and it's probably not linear either, when it hits and growth stops being able to replace lost jobs it could be sudden. Bespoke is interesting, but I'll probably only visit 1000 different houses in my lifetime etc 'Bespoke-esque' products will be able to be mass produced and appear unique, currently they are limited by space time, small markets overseas trips will have little meaning to goods in the future. Once 3D printers/scanners work well I can copy anything that an artist creates why would I buy it off them personally, especially since I'll probably be unemployed myself. Sure I'll go to a fancy humans serve me restaurant every now and again, probably when I'm young and hip, but normally I'll do what everyone else will do, get a excellent, cheap hassle free meal made to order served by automatons. Building and driving are dangerous jobs, it won't take many lawsuits before they get shut down for humans. More of a dystopian fan myself.