7 ms·

It's not fragmentation. Within a year, the vast majority of iOS users will be on iOS 7. It's evolution.

by chasing 13y ago

btipling 13y ago
Except for all those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever.
- melling 13y ago
  That would be the 3Gs. I had mine for 3 years before I upgraded to the 5. It felt like a pretty old phone. What are the odds that people who have a 3-4 year old smart phone, really want to use a lot of apps?
  - sunnybythesea 13y ago
    I have a 3GS. And even though I've had it for so long, it still doesn't feel dated to me. Apple did a good job with the hardware and the software support. It is finally starting to feel a bit sluggish after almost 4 years of very heavy use. Compare that with my old phones which I essentially threw away after a year or so and never missed them...and the crappy Razr that died after a year.
  - fpgeek 13y ago
    The 3GS was on sale as recently as last September (maybe a bit later in some emerging markets).
    - jamesaguilar 13y ago
      At least it was never sold with an previous-version installed OS like half of Android phones.
- lostlogin 13y ago
  With each suggestive generation selling more than all previous generations combined, it's not a big issue for long. Obviously this pattern can't last and I'm not sure if it hold for the iPhone 5 even, but its a big factor in the equation. Edit: removed bad link to old article. I can't find the Asymco graph I'm after, sorry... Maybe it was someone else's?
- forrestthewoods 13y ago
  You mean the four year old non-retina iphone 3gs? I think it's safe to take that device behind the barn to retire forever. Few tears will be shed.
  - jmduke 13y ago
    I don't like the idea that four years is a prohibitively long time for a device that I spend hundreds of dollars on.
    - sosuke 13y ago
      Is there another company that is updating 4 year old phones? Is there an Android phone released with 2.2 that can run 4.2? I think Apple's backwards compatibility track record is the best there is, but here's to hoping for better!
      - jeswin 13y ago
        Not exactly a Google update, but the open source nature of Android makes efforts like CyanogenMod possible. They support many old devices. My Motorola Defy came with 2.1 Eclair. Runs 4.2 as of now, thanks to Cyanogen. I keep it because it's built like a tank; all phones should have IP67 certification.
    - dimensionmedia 13y ago
      Seriously? Four years is quite a long time in today's tech world. Think if you had a four year Android or Windows (whoops) phone if that was a reasonable thought. Bottom line - if you think 4 years ISN'T a long time for a hundreds of dollar device then there's not much hope for you.
    - jamesaguilar 13y ago
      OK, but we're talking about reality here. Four years is an astoundingly long lifetime for a device to stay updated in this industry.
    - ghshephard 13y ago
- Samuel_Michon 13y ago
  > those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever. Of all the devices supported by iOS 6, only the iPhone 3G S and the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade. The iPads that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. The iPhone 4 has been out for 3 years and will be able to run iOS 7 when it is released later this year. How many 3 year old Android, Blackberry and Windows Phone models do you know of that can run the newest version of the OS? (This post was edited to reflect that the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade to iOS 7. The ‘iPod touch 16GB’ was listed on iOS 7’s page, I understood that to mean the 4th gen model, which also came in 16GB capacity.)
  - joezydeco 13y ago
    The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. My fourth generation iPod Touch runs iOS 6 but does not qualify for iOS 7. Fifth gen only.
  - ben1040 13y ago
    >The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. Not quite, at least as far as the iPod Touch goes. iOS 7 will only run on the 5th generation iPod Touch (see http://www.apple.com/ios/ios7/features/ http://www.apple.com/ios/ios7/features/ - bottom of the page), the version with the 4-inch screen. Apple was selling the 4th generation device up until May 30 of this year. In other words, there's people who bought this thing two weeks ago who will not be able to upgrade to iOS 7.
  - myko 13y ago
    This is mostly a good point, but is missing an important difference. A lot of important Android APIs are provided as part of Google Play services and made available back to Android 2.3, whereas an iPhone 4 running iOS 7 still will be unable to use Siri.
    - Samuel_Michon 13y ago
      I understand your point, and it’s a good one, but iPhone 4 isn’t allowed to run Siri because of hardware reasons, not API support. The noise reduction in newer models is a lot better than on iPhone 4. Hackers have managed to get Siri running on iPhone 4, it just doesn’t work as well. http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/05/apple_iphone_4s_a5_chip_incorporates_audience_earsmart_noise_reduction_tech_for_siri.html http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/05/apple_iphone_4s_a5...
dannyr 13y ago
So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year? I guess we're moving the goal posts again.
- ghshephard 13y ago
  How many hours/days will it take to get 10%, 25% and 50% of the iOS platform on to iOS 7? I'm betting over 50% installed base will be on iOS 7 in less than a month.
  - jamesaguilar 13y ago
    It took two weeks to hit 45% when iOS 6 was released. http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios6update.png http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios... Wow-level context: Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-Up-Nearly-ThreeFold-Since-Beginning-of-Year/ http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-U...
    - ghshephard 13y ago
      Also, keep in mind iOS 6 was (somewhat) held back in terms of adoption because google hadn't released maps for the platform yet.
      - FireBeyond 13y ago
        That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal. I think blaming Google for iOS 6 adoption not being (even) quicker is grasping at straws that in all likelihood don't exist.
        seabee 13y ago
        Given I've also known a few unrelated people do this, I believe your blanket dismissal foolish when it's simple to falsify the thesis: check iOS 6 adoption after Google Maps was released.
bane 13y ago
and up pops a perfect examplar
tlrobinson 13y ago
I suppose it's not a coincidence Apple showed off how many users are running the latest version of iOS vs the latest version of Android.

It's not fragmentation. Within a year, the vast majority of iOS users will be on iOS 7. It's evolution.

by chasing 13y ago

It's not fragmentation. Within a year, the vast majority of iOS users will be on iOS 7. It's evolution.

btipling 13y ago

Except for all those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever.

melling 13y ago
That would be the 3Gs. I had mine for 3 years before I upgraded to the 5. It felt like a pretty old phone. What are the odds that people who have a 3-4 year old smart phone, really want to use a lot of apps?
- sunnybythesea 13y ago
  I have a 3GS. And even though I've had it for so long, it still doesn't feel dated to me. Apple did a good job with the hardware and the software support. It is finally starting to feel a bit sluggish after almost 4 years of very heavy use. Compare that with my old phones which I essentially threw away after a year or so and never missed them...and the crappy Razr that died after a year.
- fpgeek 13y ago
  The 3GS was on sale as recently as last September (maybe a bit later in some emerging markets).
  - jamesaguilar 13y ago
    At least it was never sold with an previous-version installed OS like half of Android phones.
lostlogin 13y ago
With each suggestive generation selling more than all previous generations combined, it's not a big issue for long. Obviously this pattern can't last and I'm not sure if it hold for the iPhone 5 even, but its a big factor in the equation. Edit: removed bad link to old article. I can't find the Asymco graph I'm after, sorry... Maybe it was someone else's?
forrestthewoods 13y ago
You mean the four year old non-retina iphone 3gs? I think it's safe to take that device behind the barn to retire forever. Few tears will be shed.
- jmduke 13y ago
  I don't like the idea that four years is a prohibitively long time for a device that I spend hundreds of dollars on.
  - sosuke 13y ago
    Is there another company that is updating 4 year old phones? Is there an Android phone released with 2.2 that can run 4.2? I think Apple's backwards compatibility track record is the best there is, but here's to hoping for better!
    - jeswin 13y ago
      Not exactly a Google update, but the open source nature of Android makes efforts like CyanogenMod possible. They support many old devices. My Motorola Defy came with 2.1 Eclair. Runs 4.2 as of now, thanks to Cyanogen. I keep it because it's built like a tank; all phones should have IP67 certification.
  - dimensionmedia 13y ago
    Seriously? Four years is quite a long time in today's tech world. Think if you had a four year Android or Windows (whoops) phone if that was a reasonable thought. Bottom line - if you think 4 years ISN'T a long time for a hundreds of dollar device then there's not much hope for you.
  - jamesaguilar 13y ago
    OK, but we're talking about reality here. Four years is an astoundingly long lifetime for a device to stay updated in this industry.
  - ghshephard 13y ago
Samuel_Michon 13y ago
> those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever. Of all the devices supported by iOS 6, only the iPhone 3G S and the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade. The iPads that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. The iPhone 4 has been out for 3 years and will be able to run iOS 7 when it is released later this year. How many 3 year old Android, Blackberry and Windows Phone models do you know of that can run the newest version of the OS? (This post was edited to reflect that the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade to iOS 7. The ‘iPod touch 16GB’ was listed on iOS 7’s page, I understood that to mean the 4th gen model, which also came in 16GB capacity.)
- joezydeco 13y ago
  The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. My fourth generation iPod Touch runs iOS 6 but does not qualify for iOS 7. Fifth gen only.
- ben1040 13y ago
  >The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7. Not quite, at least as far as the iPod Touch goes. iOS 7 will only run on the 5th generation iPod Touch (see http://www.apple.com/ios/ios7/features/ http://www.apple.com/ios/ios7/features/ - bottom of the page), the version with the 4-inch screen. Apple was selling the 4th generation device up until May 30 of this year. In other words, there's people who bought this thing two weeks ago who will not be able to upgrade to iOS 7.
- myko 13y ago
  This is mostly a good point, but is missing an important difference. A lot of important Android APIs are provided as part of Google Play services and made available back to Android 2.3, whereas an iPhone 4 running iOS 7 still will be unable to use Siri.
  - Samuel_Michon 13y ago
    I understand your point, and it’s a good one, but iPhone 4 isn’t allowed to run Siri because of hardware reasons, not API support. The noise reduction in newer models is a lot better than on iPhone 4. Hackers have managed to get Siri running on iPhone 4, it just doesn’t work as well. http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/05/apple_iphone_4s_a5_chip_incorporates_audience_earsmart_noise_reduction_tech_for_siri.html http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/05/apple_iphone_4s_a5...

dannyr 13y ago

So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year? I guess we're moving the goal posts again.

ghshephard 13y ago
How many hours/days will it take to get 10%, 25% and 50% of the iOS platform on to iOS 7? I'm betting over 50% installed base will be on iOS 7 in less than a month.
- jamesaguilar 13y ago
  It took two weeks to hit 45% when iOS 6 was released. http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios6update.png http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios... Wow-level context: Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-Up-Nearly-ThreeFold-Since-Beginning-of-Year/ http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-U...
  - ghshephard 13y ago
    Also, keep in mind iOS 6 was (somewhat) held back in terms of adoption because google hadn't released maps for the platform yet.
    - FireBeyond 13y ago
      That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal. I think blaming Google for iOS 6 adoption not being (even) quicker is grasping at straws that in all likelihood don't exist.
      - seabee 13y ago
        Given I've also known a few unrelated people do this, I believe your blanket dismissal foolish when it's simple to falsify the thesis: check iOS 6 adoption after Google Maps was released.

bane 13y ago

and up pops a perfect examplar

tlrobinson 13y ago

I suppose it's not a coincidence Apple showed off how many users are running the latest version of iOS vs the latest version of Android.