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Tech Cycle: 1. Small groups of dedicated technologists create a large step forward in technology. Generally becoming wealthy. 2. People following money all pi

Tech Cycle: 1. Small groups of dedicated technologists create a large step forward in technology. Generally becoming wealthy. 2. People following money all pile in. Pretenders abound; both founders and investors. 3. It becomes impossible to separate the wheat from the chaff. How do you tell the difference between someone who is legitimately experienced and someone who's skill is putting on appearances? 4. Big crash as the pretenders fail to produce similar results. All the crazy money leaves the technology sector. "Who needs an online pet store anyway?" 5. The only people who are left are small groups of people dedicated to technology regardless of the headlines. (return to step one)

stcredzero 13y ago
> How do you tell the difference between someone who is legitimately experienced and someone who's skill is putting on appearances? Those who have legitimate experience can detect their peers. Unfortunately, this is highly contextual. You can be a competent Ruby on Rails guy, but still suffer from Dunning-Krueger when trying to evaluate an iOS developer. You can also go back to first principles. Do people live their lives and engage in conversations in a way that indicates they understand the epistemological stance of scientists? I have a super power in this regard. I exude a field that makes undesirable people prejudge me, to the point where they make factual mistakes.
- api 13y ago
  This applies to business and marketing too. A big problem is that innovators lacking business experience are easy prey for self-promoting douchenozzles who pretend to be able to "accelerate" them. In reality they don't know what they're doing, don't have the connections they claim to have, and just want to entangle themselves with something in the off chance it might turn out to be big.
olalonde 13y ago
Obligatory Wikipedia reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle

stcredzero 13y ago

> How do you tell the difference between someone who is legitimately experienced and someone who's skill is putting on appearances? Those who have legitimate experience can detect their peers. Unfortunately, this is highly contextual. You can be a competent Ruby on Rails guy, but still suffer from Dunning-Krueger when trying to evaluate an iOS developer. You can also go back to first principles. Do people live their lives and engage in conversations in a way that indicates they understand the epistemological stance of scientists? I have a super power in this regard. I exude a field that makes undesirable people prejudge me, to the point where they make factual mistakes.

api 13y ago
This applies to business and marketing too. A big problem is that innovators lacking business experience are easy prey for self-promoting douchenozzles who pretend to be able to "accelerate" them. In reality they don't know what they're doing, don't have the connections they claim to have, and just want to entangle themselves with something in the off chance it might turn out to be big.

olalonde 13y ago

Obligatory Wikipedia reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle