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Tesla: a little bit Apple, a little bit Google, and about to be huge
- dhughes 14y agoI can't help thinking that Tesla as successful as it is for a young company would be more successful in European countries where short driving distances and high fuel prices are common. Canada and the US are lumped into one vehicle market but distances tend to be so much greater compared to Europe and fuel is a bit cheaper. That was mentioned in the article but there's more to it than that. Weather is another problem Europe tends to have milder weather compared to the northern half of the continental US and all Canada. Half the year where I am it's below 0C , snow and snow tires (more aggressive grip) really affects milage my vehicle get practically half the milage I do in summer. Tesla needs to build a vehicle with good ground clearance, a range of at least 400km, rapid charging and cost around $30,000. If not there's no way I would even think of buying one.
- robot 14y ago"So how can Tesla persuade car giants to all work together to improve the world’s electric vehicle infrastructure? By licensing its tech to its competitors, in the same way that Google gives Android away to every phone-maker in the world." Wrong comparison. Google gives away android only to increase its ad spaces and make more money. I don't think licensing technology enables such a platform for Tesla.
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- cromwellian 14y agoGoogle gives away Android as a competitive moat to both a) increase the amount of time spent on Google Services and b) decrease the threat of a mobile monopoly changing the default search engine (Imagine the threat of an Apple with 80% of the market and the negotiating power they'd have for the setting of default mobile search) A fragmented, federated mobile ecosystem with more players results in more people using Google services even if competitors can take Android and strip out the Google-installed services (e.g. Amazon). For Tesla, making electric cars in general a success will increase demand for electric infrastructure investment, and in turn, a robust electric infrastructure, along with cultural normality of electric cars, means increased demand for their own products. Android really hasn't increased ad space all that much. If people use mobile more than desktop, the likely result is mobile is leading to decreased ad spaces, just from the mere fact that the screens are smaller. So if anything, it is a defense against a downward sloping trend.
- venomsnake 14y agoTesla want small slice of huge pie and not huge part of non existent one.
- dreamdu5t 14y agoCould someone explain to me what the big deal is with Tesla cars? I saw one yesterday parked by my office, and I peeked inside. It just seems like a typical luxury car that's electric. Kind of like the Porsche version of the Prius. Why is it going to be huge?
- rheide 14y agoBecause it is a typical luxury car that's electric.
- btilly 14y agoBecause if Elon succeeds, Tesla is the future of the car industry. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5681695 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5681695 for my explanation of why. (Which is just an application of a well-known theory from a well-known book.)
- w1ntermute 14y agoBecause it's all-electric without the usual compromises, other than range (which is supposedly going to be solved in the next few years).
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- andrewtbham 14y agoThe Tesla BlueStar slated for release in 2016 or 2017 will be a $30,000 electric car that competes with Honda Accord and Toyota Camry. Because it's electric, the cost of fuel and maintenance is likely to be significantly lower that gas powered cars.
- jnw2 14y agoWith the level of enthusiasm Consumer Reports showed for the Model S, and the lack of interest in building electric cars on the part of all the legacy automakers, I doubt there is going to be enough production capacity for 200+ mile range electric vehicles in 2017 for Tesla to keep up with demand if they price the car that cheaply.
- friendly_chap 14y agoSuch a pointless title, a real rarity (especially on HN).
- perlpimp 14y agodrove Tesla, it is very nice and nifty. I also liked very much NeXT cube. IMO this is going to be a stepping stone to next wave of car designs from other Car Companies. What bugs me is still unresolved issue of battery disposal dismal performance of the car in cold weather. I think this is a very nice leg up to turning car industry and making it innovate perhaps looking for a better all around technology. I hope that what tesla will do instead of providing a nice "copy" for everyone to parrot. my 2c
- ChuckMcM 14y agoCan you say more about 'battery disposal' ? As far as I can tell the batteries in the Tesla are largely recyclable (for example most, if not all of the material in that batteries can be recovered out of 'dead' batteries).
- jnw2 14y agoI thought the typical landfill in the US is willing to accept lithium batteries, but putting a Tesla battery pack in a landfill is economically dumb compared to selling the used pack to someone interested in recycling the raw materials in the pack.
- ChuckMcM 14y agoI should check but I believe that Tesla buys back the old batteries for just that purpose (to recycle them). Not unlike going to the auto parts store with your old alternator and getting a rebuilt one to replace it. No doubt there will be 'rebuilt' battery packs for folks on a budget.
- jnw2 13y agoElon commented, I think in the Foundations 20 video on Youtube, that the raw metals that go into a battery pack cost about $80/kwh. That means that putting the battery pack from an 85 kwh Model S in a landfill is equivalent to putting a stack of over 300 $20 bills in a landfill. (He was actually trying to make a point about how cheap battery packs might be to buy new in the future, with more efficient techniques for turning the raw materials into battery packs.)
- visualcsharp 14y agoUntil there is a huge leap forward in battery technology, or until cars are powered on some alternative energy source that is energy-positive, Tesla will never be anything more than a boutique car company whose customers consist of rich people looking to get noticed.
- breakyerself 14y agoI think these supercharging stations are sad. I get annoyed at the 5 - 10 minutes that it takes to fill up my gas tank. 30 minutes to fill up would be excruciating. I remember seeing videos a few years ago where they wanted to have a standard for robotic drive throughs that automatically swapped out a cars low battery for a fully charged one. You could have a fresh battery in less than 5 minutes without getting out of the car. Your old batter would get charged and end up in someone else's car later. Why is that not obviously the best solution here?
- andrewtbham 14y agoBatteries degrade overtime so consumers wouldn't want to swap out their battery for one with unknown usage.
- jjoonathan 14y agoI think you have it backwards: if consumers constantly swap out their batteries, they unload the uncertainty of pricing the battery's degradation onto the experts. Charging stations will retire decrepit batteries and replace them with new tech. If today's batteries last 50% longer than expected or 50% shorter than expected, the consumer doesn't have to worry -- they will always have a battery that works OK and they will never get slapped with a massive unplanned repair charge. They won't have to worry about upgrading their batteries or choosing between high capacity and low capacity batteries since they can just do that at the swap station. They also don't have to worry about recycling since the station will handle it for them.
- apapli 14y agoWe have a program like this for BBQ gas bottles in melbourne (possibly nation wide, I've never checked). Works well - you swap your empty bottle with a full one, pay and take it home. No filling up and you know you have a safe bottle that has been checked (in Australia you cannot use one that is older than 10 years). Funnily enough you also get less precious about its "performance" - as long as it works, users tend to lover look the appearance. Car batteries are a different matter but I think there are some valid parallels here.
- codex 14y agoThe author should do more research rather than just blindly copying Tesla ad copy: Tesla's batteries are not the most efficient in the industry. The LEAF is rated at 140 wh/kg [1]. Nissan makes their own batteries. The mid-grade Model S battery is only 120 wh/kg. [1] http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_specs#cite_note-LEAF_spec_final-4 http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_spe...
- toomuchtodo 14y agoEnergy density and efficiency are two different things. Tesla batteries are actively cooled/managed, allowing for moving current in and out of them faster, while Nissan's batteries are air cooled (preventing faster charges/discharges).
- sliverstorm 14y agoI think you're talking about power density.
- larrys 14y ago"The author should do more research" Add: Fawning. This is an article whose intent is to polarize the community of haters and likers by comparing it to Apple. There is really no comparison. The Tesla isn't a better "car" in the sense of how it gets you between a and b than the existing vehicles out there which are mature products that have been improved over time in the features and benefits that people care about. With Tesla you have to worry about distance, batteries, the high cost - I mean who cares if it accelerates as quickly as it does and who cares that there is no noise? The potential market for products in the price category that computers are in is much different from cars. Most people don't buy multiple cars and replacing one is a big decision to make. It's not like adding an ipod and an ipad. Bottom line is what do I get by buying an Electric car exactly even assuming it is the same price as the gas vehicle? How important is the gas savings when you weigh that over the lack of utility in other areas? I mean get real. Stuff like this will be a non-starter to most people: "which will give you 150 miles of power in a 30-minute charge" How many people are going to want to deal with that? People buy cars on emotion not rationality. It's the same reason someone wants 4 wheel drive even though they might only need it a few days per year.
- aresant 14y agoOne of the most interesting long-term plays here is when Tesla builds a truck. The #1 and #2 best selling "cars" by volume are trucks and trucks represent ~4 of the top 10 best selling cars overall. (1) Musk has said that he has "this idea for a really advanced electric truck that has the performance of a sports car but actually more towing power and more carrying capacity than a gasoline or diesel truck of comparable size," Musk said.(2) While this is probably several years out, as it would likely result in an all new wheel-base, etc I think that would be a hugely compelling product line if it can compete on the same stats w/towing / carrying capacity (1) http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2013/02/top-10-best-selling-cars-january-2013.html http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2013/02/top-10-best-selli... (2) http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130410/RETAIL07/130419986/musk-tesla-could-build-second-plant-in-texas#axzz2QAX527DZ http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130410/...
- stcredzero 14y agoFor independent repairmen in the US, this could be a big win. You could have something in a pickup truck form factor, but with potentially much lower operating and maintenance costs. In the US, lots of people are operating a lot more truck than they actually need just to keep up appearances. If such trucks were available for good leasing terms, this could be a goldmine.
- lifeformed 14y agoSince trucks are so popular with small businesses, electric trucks could also be a great type of vehicle for the government to subsidize.
- Shivetya 14y agoFrankly, if you have to subsidize it then it wasn't good for business. The government could set the example by moving their fleets to electric, establishing standards for charging and the like. Get school buses electrified, one county near me puts up some incredible numbers, nearly seventy thousand miles a day. http://www.cobbk12.org/centraloffice/Transportation/ http://www.cobbk12.org/centraloffice/Transportation/ Businesses will move to what works, see how some have moved to natural gas as its more cost efficient. Same will happen with electrics. Don't be so free with money we don't have.
- danielodio 14y agoLike I said 3 months ago (when the stock was at $34): I'm betting on Elon! http://go.DanielOdio.com/elon http://go.DanielOdio.com/elon
- gfodor 14y ago"Betting" is the operative word here. I think Elon is going to be successful, but that doesn't mean I want to gamble on TSLA stock. In other words, TSLA is not an "investment" if you realize you are essentially betting on some future outcome that is far from certain. It's a gamble. It would be great if people made this distinction (not saying you don't)
- danielodio 14y agoYeah agreed; in my blog post & comments I talk about how the stock could definitely go to $0 if the company missteps. But then again, after driving a Model S, I believe it's the best car out there, so as long as the company executes well I'm very bullish on the stock, especial in the medium to long term ( >1 year).
- Luc 14y agoTesla's market cap is currently one and a half times Fiat's. I know it's a rough measure, but that seems a bit excessive.
- ryguytilidie 14y agoStock prices are generally based on the expected future profitability of a company. Tesla's expectations are vastly higher than Fiat...
- jnw2 14y agoOn the other hand, the stock of every legacy automaker could go to $0 if Tesla is successful and the legacy automakers fail to transition to building electric cars (or even just fail to shed the obnoxious dealerships). And the stock of every electric power distribution monopoly could go to $0 if solar panels and batteries get cheap enough that we don't need the grid anymore.
- yoster 14y agoI can't wait until the day everyone drives an electric car. I can't believe after 100 years, we still have these gas guzzling, pollution spewing dinosaurs... These huge conglomerate oil companies are going to end up ruining us all. The auto manufacturers need to look to the future before they become obsolete. Tesla, I salute you!
- zanny 14y ago> The auto manufacturers need to look to the future before they become obsolete. No they don't, the economics of cars is doing exactly what it should. The old dogs don't react fast enough so new tech and ideas like Tesla take over. It is good to have corporate turnover of businesses before they can concentrate power and influence in their niche sphere to capture markets. In the US, the downsizing of Chrysler brings GM / Ford into a duopoly after having bought dozens of brands over the last half century. They desperately needed some competition.
- MisterBastahrd 14y agoHate to break it to you, but the only thing that will happen is that more plants will be converted to burning oil. You won't have car exhaust, but you'll end up burning fossil fuels to power your vehicle all the same.
- ever_upwards 14y agoA cool tshirt of the original Tesla in New York: http://teespring.com/tesla http://teespring.com/tesla
- noonespecial 14y agoThere is a Tesla store, in the mall right down the hall from the apple store my brother works. It looks like an apple store but with really big ithings.
- habosa 14y agoTesla is an incredibly innovative company and I'd bet a lot that they'll be hugely successful in the long run. However I have to warn people on HN against interpreting the recent stock rises (from ~30 to 80) of TSLA as public faith in the company. What happened was a "short squeeze". At one point ~45% of TSLA stock was short, and as the price rose the investors with short positions were forced to buy long in order to cover. The buying drove the price even further up and caused an even bigger "squeeze" on those with short positions. This pattern leads to the astronomical rise you saw. Of course there was a real boost from the good earnings report which caused a 15+ point gain but a lot of the intermediate gain was due to the short squeeze.
- jnw2 14y agoAlso, Consumer Reports has recently had some very positive things to say about the car.
- DanielBMarkham 14y agoMusk seems to be this generation's Howard Hughes, and out of the complete pantheon of internet-famous technical folk, he's the one guy I could consider a hero. Having said all of that, I sincerely hope we keep some sort of sense of detachment about all of this. Having Tesla play the role of Apple while fanboys and an fawing press cover each move does not help the rest of the startup community. We have a million other problems to solve, not just electric cars and cheaper access to space. It's important to see past the fluff pieces to the underlying business decisions in order to harvest tactics than can be used by all. tl;dr: big Musk fan, but let's be careful with the hype. It can obscure important lessons.
- enraged_camel 14y agoI think the interesting thing about electric cars is that they can contribute to the solution of several other issues. They are much cleaner technology, so they would help reduce air pollution as well as slow down global warming. The former also means fewer pollution-related problems like lung cancer and asthma. I know this sounds like grasping at straws, but I'm speaking in the long run (~50 years). I think the effects will be noticeable then.
- ams6110 14y agoI think you're jumping ahead a least a few decades. Most electricity in the USA is generated from coal, though increasingly, natural gas. And we simply do not have the residential electrical infrastructure in place to support significant numbers of households charging one or two cars at night.
- kiba 14y agoCoals and natural gas power plants are still a more efficient source of energy than gasoline.
- enraged_camel 14y agoYeah, Musk talked about this in several interviews. Basically, the average efficiency for energy generation at the power plant is 60%, because the power plant is able to capture a lot of waste and reuse it. Whereas the efficiency of energy generation in an internal combustion engine is about 20%. Therefore, if all cars switched to electric, we would be looking at a 200% increase in efficiency in car transportation.
- quackerhacker 14y agoEveryone knows in tech, the first to market is the defined impression, and if Tesla keeps innovating they remain the titan of the industry. Example: carriers laughed at Steve Jobs when he wanted to introduce a pocket pc highly subsidized by the carrier, understandably the iphone was compared it to Palm Pilots and Blackberry held the market. The iphone was dubbed a "smartphone," by comparison it reflected it's user and the others whom did not own one to having... a "dumbphone." Even though I question Apple's future in a space they initially dominated, it is because lack of innovation. But I have invested my UI experience to iOS and money in apps and videos that will only play on iOS (always remove the drm -.-)....because, like Steve Jobs said "it just works." I don't believe Tesla will be like Google, unorganized and open sourced, but definitely like Apple and their App Store in comparison to tech. Side Note: I started with a Google G1 for Tmobile, tried the Evo4G, then because of coding had to get an iPhone 4 (ohh no closed-source)...judging by my excerpt, I guess I'm a fanboy now (just not big-headed or superior like the other ones :p). -quacker
- sokoloff 14y agoYes, that's why MySpace continues to define social networking, and AltaVista defines web search today. Tesla wasn't even first with an all-electric car, for that matter. First mover advantage isn't nearly as strong in tech when you're looking forward. When you're looking back to explain dominance, survivorship bias clouds many people's analysis.
- quackerhacker 14y agoBy defined impression an example is, when facebook came about, what was it compared to. MySpace failed to innovate other than for their bottom line. This is what I mean by a company must continually innovate on their product. Even Google does this through new products. This may be too general of a statement, but Facebook fatigue, I believe, is spreading. Yet Facebook continues to innovate and acquire new products...Facebook would be better off creating a new method of social networking (is that too strong of a statement?).
- graeme 14y agoCan someone explain the appeal of electric cars to me? (Hear me out) Currently, we power our vehicle fleet using gasoline. The stated appeal of electric cars, as I understand it, is less reliance on gasoline. However, electric cars still require electricity. Currently, most of our electricity is powered by coal and other fossil fuels. While solar and renewables are increasing, they are not increasing very fast. So it seems likely that any massive switch from gasoline to electric would entail a major increase in baseline electricity consumption. This would be powered either by more fossil fuels, or nuclear. Though the latter seems off the table in the West. Possible advantages for electric: 1. Lower consumption of energy relative to gasoline (not sure if this is true) 2. More versatile, as electricity can come from multiple sources. I'm not sure if #1 is true. #2 seems like a fairly small advantage, though it would be useful if oil became scarcer relative to coal. Tesla has generated a lot of positive press. Am I missing something? My intuition is that the electric car simply moves our consumption of energy, but does little to address our issue of mainly relying on non-renewables for energy. (I wouldn't put much stock in any answer that emphasizes renewables, at least in the short term. They have not made a dent in our baseline power consumption, so I fail to see how adding electric cars would change much. In the long run, of course, electric cars offer the potential to power our vehicle fleet via renewables, assuming we can actually deploy them at scale [I'm skeptical on this point])
- adaml_623 14y agoCars stink. And put out pollution all through our urban space. They utilise a compact energy source but cannot utilise wind/solar power. The performance of a Tesla is comparable to a Ferrari!
- gusgordon 14y agoIf Tesla becomes a car company of similar size to, say, Ford, what will its stock price be?
- vecter 14y agoFord's market cap is 55B. TSLA's current market cap is ~9B at a stock price of ~$77. If TSLA's market cap were 55B (~6x greater), then, assuming no stock splits, its stock price would be $462/share.
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- gtirloni 14y agoLost me when said iPad was the cheapest tablet you could buy.