5 ms·

> The important figure (for developers) is not what proportion of pirates would buy the game, but what proportion of possible buyers will pirate instead. There

> The important figure (for developers) is not what proportion of pirates would buy the game, but what proportion of possible buyers will pirate instead. There is also another important figure that is routinely ignored: the number of honest customers who get screwed by or annoyed with DRM and other forms of copyright protection (20 years ago we had to enter words from the game manual, page X line Y word Z, in the middle of the game) and decide to buy fewer games in the future (and possibly pirate them instead to avoid such annoyances).

johnward 14y ago
Many of the people you mentioned will just get grouped into the "pirate" category when sales slow.
tinco 14y ago
There is also another important figure that is routinely ignored: The number of honest customers who get screwed because game companies can not profitably release a big game anymore, so they won't. The CEO of Square Enix was fired because he produced the latest iteration of Tomb Raider, and it arguably is the best iteration of Tomb Raider ever, and plainly didn't make any money. Also your argument about 20 years ago is plain incorrect. 20 years ago DRM was way more strict and customer screwing than it is today. 20 years ago if you wanted to play a top of the line game, you would have to buy a Nintendo Entertainment system. Arguably the most restrictive walled garden system that has ever been in the market.
- winthrowe 14y ago
  You're almost a decade off; 20 years ago Doom was released and the hottest game I knew of. The North American release of the NES was 28 years ago now.
  - tinco 14y ago
    I think the N64 also had this walled garden system :)
    - kbenson 14y ago
      Depending on your definition of "top of the line", I don't think Nintendo has had any sort of monopoly. I would argue that in most terms, the PC has offered a superior gaming experience for most points in the history of gaming. Where it falls down is the supporting needs of gaming, such as system maintenance, game installation, etc. Even so, I think the top of the line title could be said to have been on the PC. But hey, if you want to compare Doom on the PC when it came out in 1993 to Doom on the SNES when it came out three years later, and consider the sub-standard SNES port that's three years late to be a top of the line game, go ahead. Although why Doom was used as an example (not by you, I'm aware), I'm not sure. I don't remember any copy protection on it.
- Delenda 14y ago
  Actually if I recall, the problem with Tomb Raider was an exceptionally bloated budget and unrealistic expectations. In the first month something like 3.4 million copies sold, but they were expecting closer to 7! A well reviewed game that sells millions of copies was still viewed as a failure because the budget that went into the game was downright crazy and the expectations were simply not in line with reality. If you can sell millions of copies of a title and consider it to be a failure then there are some pretty big problems with your business model. http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-04-09-square-enix-thought-tomb-raider-could-sell-nearly-double-its-3-4-million-first-month-sales http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-04-09-square-enix-tho... http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123045-Tomb-Raider-Launch-Best-in-Franchises-History http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123045-Tomb-Raider... http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/7121-Dark-Souls-and-Dark-Sales http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/712...
  - tinco 14y ago
    Thanks a lot for those links, they are very enlightening.
- pyre 14y ago
  Tomb Raider was a 'failure' because Square Enix, in order to have a favourable outlook, had to estimate a huge income on it. Basically they had to inflate their predictions for Tomb Raider and try to hit them, or else admit that their future was bleak, and they would be losing money. Tomb Raider was only a failure because it didn't turn enough profit to save the rest of the company. I think this example has less to do with piracy.
- anonymoushn 14y ago
  My NES continued working when it couldn't contact anyone's always-on DRM servers.
  - Houshalter 14y ago
    So do all console games.
    - chii 14y ago
      not the xbox 720, if the rumour mill is to be believed : http://www.google.com/search?q=xbox+720+always+on+drm&prmd=ivnsu&source=univ&tbm=nws http://www.google.com/search?q=xbox+720+always+on+drm&pr...
      - Houshalter 14y ago
        That's absurd. For many years I used my xbox without connecting it to the internet at all.
        chii 14y ago
        xbox 720 is not released yet.
        Houshalter 14y ago
        I am aware of that.
XorNot 14y ago
Or do buy the game, encounter the DRM, then download the CD-crack or whatever to bypass it. The various piracy figures are incredibly simplistic and just group "downloads" as "total number of pirates".
- LukeShu 14y ago
  Exactly! I have a good number of friends who legitimately own the StarCraft, but have it installed via a crack because it is easier that way. And I've had to use cracks to get games to run in Wine, because the DRM won't work in Wine.

johnward 14y ago

Many of the people you mentioned will just get grouped into the "pirate" category when sales slow.

tinco 14y ago

There is also another important figure that is routinely ignored: The number of honest customers who get screwed because game companies can not profitably release a big game anymore, so they won't. The CEO of Square Enix was fired because he produced the latest iteration of Tomb Raider, and it arguably is the best iteration of Tomb Raider ever, and plainly didn't make any money. Also your argument about 20 years ago is plain incorrect. 20 years ago DRM was way more strict and customer screwing than it is today. 20 years ago if you wanted to play a top of the line game, you would have to buy a Nintendo Entertainment system. Arguably the most restrictive walled garden system that has ever been in the market.

winthrowe 14y ago
You're almost a decade off; 20 years ago Doom was released and the hottest game I knew of. The North American release of the NES was 28 years ago now.
- tinco 14y ago
  I think the N64 also had this walled garden system :)
  - kbenson 14y ago
    Depending on your definition of "top of the line", I don't think Nintendo has had any sort of monopoly. I would argue that in most terms, the PC has offered a superior gaming experience for most points in the history of gaming. Where it falls down is the supporting needs of gaming, such as system maintenance, game installation, etc. Even so, I think the top of the line title could be said to have been on the PC. But hey, if you want to compare Doom on the PC when it came out in 1993 to Doom on the SNES when it came out three years later, and consider the sub-standard SNES port that's three years late to be a top of the line game, go ahead. Although why Doom was used as an example (not by you, I'm aware), I'm not sure. I don't remember any copy protection on it.
Delenda 14y ago
Actually if I recall, the problem with Tomb Raider was an exceptionally bloated budget and unrealistic expectations. In the first month something like 3.4 million copies sold, but they were expecting closer to 7! A well reviewed game that sells millions of copies was still viewed as a failure because the budget that went into the game was downright crazy and the expectations were simply not in line with reality. If you can sell millions of copies of a title and consider it to be a failure then there are some pretty big problems with your business model. http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-04-09-square-enix-thought-tomb-raider-could-sell-nearly-double-its-3-4-million-first-month-sales http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-04-09-square-enix-tho... http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123045-Tomb-Raider-Launch-Best-in-Franchises-History http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/123045-Tomb-Raider... http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/7121-Dark-Souls-and-Dark-Sales http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/712...
- tinco 14y ago
  Thanks a lot for those links, they are very enlightening.
pyre 14y ago
Tomb Raider was a 'failure' because Square Enix, in order to have a favourable outlook, had to estimate a huge income on it. Basically they had to inflate their predictions for Tomb Raider and try to hit them, or else admit that their future was bleak, and they would be losing money. Tomb Raider was only a failure because it didn't turn enough profit to save the rest of the company. I think this example has less to do with piracy.
anonymoushn 14y ago
My NES continued working when it couldn't contact anyone's always-on DRM servers.
- Houshalter 14y ago
  So do all console games.
  - chii 14y ago
    not the xbox 720, if the rumour mill is to be believed : http://www.google.com/search?q=xbox+720+always+on+drm&prmd=ivnsu&source=univ&tbm=nws http://www.google.com/search?q=xbox+720+always+on+drm&pr...
    - Houshalter 14y ago
      That's absurd. For many years I used my xbox without connecting it to the internet at all.
      - chii 14y ago
        xbox 720 is not released yet.
        Houshalter 14y ago
        I am aware of that.

XorNot 14y ago

Or do buy the game, encounter the DRM, then download the CD-crack or whatever to bypass it. The various piracy figures are incredibly simplistic and just group "downloads" as "total number of pirates".

LukeShu 14y ago
Exactly! I have a good number of friends who legitimately own the StarCraft, but have it installed via a crack because it is easier that way. And I've had to use cracks to get games to run in Wine, because the DRM won't work in Wine.