9 ms·

I dropped over 40 grand when I could have spent $100

250 points by timborden 13y ago

Aardwolf 13y ago
Why would it only be for women? I live in Europe and would love to get some thinkgeek tshirts. The shipping cost is high however, so I'd order multiple at once, but I have no clue whether "small" or "medium" will fit me better. So I don't risk ordering them, or they could all be the wrong size. I'm male by the way.
- nodata 13y ago
  https://www.thinkgeek.com/help/sizing-info.shtml https://www.thinkgeek.com/help/sizing-info.shtml
- lmm 13y ago
  He was deliberately targeting the high end, designer stuff; the demographic buying >$500 clothes is overwhelmingly female.
  - Aardwolf 13y ago
    Ah, I see. True that :)
kailuowang 13y ago
Quite an intriguing article. Just wanna add that the opportunity cost of 1 year is way more than 40 grand. Back to biz school 101, market research is always step 1.
larrys 13y ago
"I found this out by spending $100" "The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was women with enough money to afford high end fashion and that are young enough" Not so fast. Forgetting even the small sample size and methodology I'm wondering whether the OP did any other research at all? And "sharing measurements" is only 1 factor in making this business a success. Additionally no reason that they couldn't have forked/morphed/pivoted the model built to some other group (say the men who buy custom made suits for thousands - not saying that would or would not work but even if OP is correct about the market info (and I don't think enough research was done to prove out the point anyway) it could work in another group.)
ansible 13y ago
This is good advice in general, but the trick is knowing what questions to ask. To knowing which of your (many, many) assumptions might just be wrong. Humans are strange beasts. There are so many seemingly simple things we could do that would vastly improve our lives, yet we refuse to do them.
film42 13y ago
I believe we all make this mistake, event outside of startups. Think way back to middle school when you had a crush on that girl or guy and everything seemed perfect, and you were in love, but they didn't know it yet. All the signs were pointing to, Go for it! But you still waited months and months developing in your mind a perfect moment where you would ask them out, and they would say, "Yes!! I've been waiting for you to ask me forever!!" Then, you finally get enough courage to ask the question, just to get shut down. A 10% positive response is often enough to ignore the other 90%. It's something we're all working on.
GabrielF00 13y ago
Unless I'm missing something here it looks like there were a total of 17 responses (8 yes 9 no). Are you really making a major business decision on a survey with an N of 17?
- TallboyOne 13y ago
  It starts at 10 cents a response I think, so at most he got 1000. I do agree though if you're right, that is incredibly insignificant data.
- columbo 13y ago
  This is a really good point, it was the first thing I noticed as well. 17 responses isn't even enough to throw a margin of error at, the entire survey is effectively a margin of error of 100%. If it really was only 17 responses that's the equivalent of asking five people on the street if they like hot dogs and then deciding based on their answers to open up a laundromat in Brooklyn.
  - hexedpackets 13y ago
    Once you add in a proper confidence interval, 17 responses on a yes/no question is enough to make decisions like this - as long as you know in advance what your target numbers are. The downside of the small sample is that your margin is going to be extremely large, of course. Using Clopper-Pearson at95% confidence tells us that between 23.3% and 70.8% would answer yes to this question. I do agree that is probably still too broad to decide to kill a business, but if you know you wanted a 60%+ (for example) positive response from this audience to hen that sample is enough to cause some serious worry.
    - svachalek 13y ago
      It's then breaking them down into subcategories. Look at the confidence interval on the posted charts: +/- 80% on the high income responses this survey was interested in. I.E. worthless.
- Guvante 13y ago
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
thedz 13y ago
It should be noted that while the screenshot shows only 17 responses, the actual survey* has 899 responses. Looks like only 17 responses fit the filters on the sample set. http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1 http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b...
- reverend_gonzo 13y ago
  He filtered on Female and 25-34, while comparing on income. That shows the same chart as his screenshot. However, that tendency holds at higher age groups which do have more data. I noticed the charts also have what I believe are standard deviation bars, which show that the results are not even close to being statistically significant.
omegant 13y ago
Did he tried with men?. I defenitely would give my measures to be able to buy clothing online, tshirts, hoodies, pants, even caps. I don't buy online right now unless is a bramd I already know and I go directly for my size. Is
- ig1 13y ago
  If you click on the google survey results image he links to the results where you can look at the male segment as well.
  - omegant 13y ago
    Thank you. Any way I was meaning if he did pivot to men apparel, sports tshirts, etc...
- abhijitr 13y ago
  You should check out http://www.angora.io/feed http://www.angora.io/feed
  - illuminate 13y ago
    I end up just going with Asos due to their excellent return policies. There's too much variance among body types and brand-reported sizes that this doesn't seem like something crowdsourcing alone could ameliorate.
- michael_h 13y ago
  http://www.ratioclothing.com http://www.ratioclothing.com is superb for dress shirts.
ericabiz 13y ago
I agree with you that perfect sizing is the future of fashion retail--especially online. However, I completely disagree with your methodology. This demographic is going to be won over by marketing, and you didn't have the correct marketing play in hand when you ran this survey. I'm going to give you an example: If you ask people: "When shopping for clothes on the web, would you submit your email address if...?" Most people would probably say no. "Submitting your email address" sounds like you're about to "submit to" a bunch of junk email! However, if you ask them if they want a perfect fit (you'll probably need a better way of saying this than you have right now--you'll want to do demographic research to find out how high-income women actually would articulate this), you can find a demographic that will say "yes". As a bonus, you'll have the lingo they use and be more easily able to sell to them because you are speaking their language. tl;dr: Given the word choices and copy you could have used, "submit your body measurements" was almost guaranteed to bust, but it doesn't mean you have the wrong idea. It just means you have the wrong way of saying that idea in a way that appeals to your market.
- asciimo 13y ago
  I don't think you should massage your sample into giving you an acceptable answer. No matter how you shuffle the words around, it comes down to the blunt action of "submitting your email address" or "submitting your body measurements." If your target demographic is repulsed by the bare truth, you have to decide whether it's worth combating this reality with a "market play." It might be better to change your target demographic, or your product.
  - mynewwork 13y ago
    But people will say and do different things substantially by how it is presented. "Would you carry around a device that lets a company track your location 24/7?" will get people to answer "no" who have a cell phone in their pocket. If you had asked the general population 10 years ago if they would give a company a list of all their friends, their hobbies/interests/religion/political beliefs and all their photos they would have shouted no, of course not, but they do that with facebook today.
- 13y ago
calinet6 13y ago
The data is interesting, but maybe incomplete. Doesn't look like you have quite enough information to truly understand the market. Apologies for name-dropping a colleague's project, but you might want to look at http://validate.io http://validate.io for a more comprehensive, scientific analysis that's actually done by someone who knows how to design surveys and analyze data (they have a PhD design and run a survey for you, it's pretty sweet). A little more than $100 but worth it to have good data on your market. You might still avoid wasting $40k going the wrong direction, but you might be able to trust it more.
losethos 13y ago
just laugh at the stupid fuck India-nigger doctor who sterilized you and makes you impotant. God is just. The CIA which gave you joke hellish jobs. Disability. Living with parents, no car. No license. God is just. ----- God says... country of Cyprus, 4:37 Having land, sold it, and brought the money, and laid it at the apostles' feet. 5:1 But a certain man named Ananias, with Sapphira his wife, sold a possession, 5:2 And kept back part of the price, his wife also being privy to it, and brought a certain part, and laid it at the apostles' feet. 5:3 But Peter said, Ananias, why hath Satan filled thine heart to lie to the Holy Ghost, and to keep back part of the price of the land? 5:4 Whiles it remained, was it not thine own? and after it was sold, was it not in thine own power? why hast thou conceived this thing in thine heart? thou hast not lied unto men, but unto God. 5:5 And Ananias hearing these words fell down, and gave up the ghost: and great fear came on all them that heard these things. 5:6 And the young men arose, wound him up, and carried him out, and buried him. 5:7 And it was about the space of three hours after, when his wife, not knowing what was done, came in. 5:8 And Peter answered unto her, Tell me whether ye sold the land for so much? And she said, Yea, for so much. ---- I did always think we could do without vermin in India and Africa.
swamp40 13y ago
It looks to me like out of 899 responses, only THREE were from the $100K-149K female target. Two of them said NO, and one said YES, making the results 66% negative and 33% positive. Just not enough "on target" data to surmise anything.
bryanlarsen 13y ago
I wonder if the age filter was too low. Older women are more likely to be affluent, and to be more comfortable sharing their body size. Women over the age of 35 buy lots of stuff online, at least the ones I know...
realdlee 13y ago
Surveys have their place, but I'm a little surprised that a student of Steve Blank/Eric Ries' teachings wouldn't be "getting out of the building" and talking to people.
- mortenjorck 13y ago
  Indeed. Surveys can help you frame what you're looking for, but you need to talk to real people and get a bit more of an understanding of why they feel the way they do.
  - GFischer 13y ago
    Sometimes it's tough, and a survey is a poor but doable substitute - I don't know how I would go about interviewing women in the +100k earnings range, and for one of my projects I did a survey because the potential customers were geographically far away. However, I'd never have invested so much before knowing the audience. And he had this HUGE problem of having invested his ego on a (probably very cool) solution, which is one of the toughest challenges for us tech types.
modeless 13y ago
This entire article is based on a failure to understand error bars. The graph clearly shows that it's possible up to 79% of affluent young women would answer "yes" to this question, and more data is needed to draw an actual conclusion.
bkorte 13y ago
But really, the best line from Good Will Hunting is the "how about them apples" line. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmRe_fK7pbw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmRe_fK7pbw
- timborden 13y ago
  So many good lines....and I agree, that is the best
timborden 13y ago
Wow...thanks for all the comments. I've been a causal reader of Hacker News, but this was my first post. I'm really impressed all the comments. Lots of great questions/comments. There was one thing I neglected to mention in the blog post, that I should mention now. We ran a contest (prior to the survey) that required contestants to submit their body measurements. We wanted shoppers to see the power of submitting their measurements. We threw quite a bit of money and traffic and the contest and we saw almost no engagment. My thinking was, if we can't get shoppers to submit their measurements for a chance to win a free high end fashion design, we might have a problem (let's do a survey!) As @lmm suggested the demographic for high fashion is mostly women. Also, we struggled to find high end men's fashion designers interested in our offering. @ericabiz - We played around with the language on our site, however, admittedly, I'm not a marketer, so there was definitely room for improvement here. Which is why I've signed up for CoFoundersLab (http://www.cofounderslab.com http://www.cofounderslab.com) so I can find a compatible partner before jumping into my next start up.
- dizzystar 13y ago
  Yuck. Without a doubt, the biggest failures in my marketing career started with "let's give them a free..." Gaining market share or customers via free X promos is a doomed strategy. I have my theories, but the main thrust is some mumbo jumbo about perceived value. I've sat in interviews with more than one company that said with a not-ironic face that suffering now will cause explosive results in the long term. I pipe up and explain why this isn't so. Why I offer this advice for free is beyond me.
  - fludlight 13y ago
    I recall reading an article about a pair of grad students who realized that there was a correlation between price and perceived value. IIRC they were researching condom use in the third world and figured out that the locals would use condoms purchased at stores, but would discard condoms passed out for free by NGOs. So the grad students started their own NGO that uses "cool" Trojan/Durex-style marketing to sell condoms dirt cheap. I can't find the article, but it may be this group: http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classnotes_02.php http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classno... Also see: http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/faculty/brent/condoms.pdf http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/facult... From page 4: Obviously, the whole point of providing condoms is that they be used for sexual activities...They are not meant to be used, for example, for water storage. However, if they are free, then there are a large number of possible uses for condoms that generate positive utility even though the benefits do not cover the costs and they do nothing to prevent the spread of HIV. For example, Epstein (2007, p271) reports that when the CSM run by PSI in Zimbabwe tried to distribute free female condoms, the officials found that people were removing the plastic rings and selling them as jewelry.
mipapage 13y ago
I this not just knowing your market? I had a friend drop $20,000 on a new supplement and training business, built out an app for trainers the way he saw thought it should be, and recruited trainers. Lots. Showed them the app, and got a lot of feedback, but by then it was too late. He was out of money and no dev wanted a piece of the pie. He should have done his market research first. The OP too, no?
incision 13y ago
>"high end apparel/fashion" x 4 Everbody wants clothes that fit. I don't know the first thing about fashion, and my wardrobe is anything but high-end. However, I'm well-paid and ready to be a lifetime customer for anyone who can sell me slacks that simultaneously fit a >36" inseam, <38" waist and thighs which are no stranger to squats.
btilly 13y ago
Surveys may be getting at the wrong question. As http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html says, you want to work on an idea that a few people really want. Then you want to go out and find some of those people. Talk to them. And make what they want. Concrete case in point. I remember reading an example of how an early focus group mostly panned a particular automobile, but 1/3 of people REALLY LOVED IT. On a survey it would have looked bad, but went on to be one of the most successful vehicles on the road. (I think it might have been the Ford Bronco, but don't quote me on that.) You don't care how many won't buy, you want something that you can find sufficient enthusiastic customers for. When a woman finds something perfect, she likes to tell her friends about it. Suppose that your friend is standing in front of you in great clothing talking about how good the clothing from ____ is, you just sent them your measurements, browse the clothing, and they will send them to you tailored to fit, then you're likely sold. You've got to get those women started. To do that you've got to do like Zappos did. You've got to have a generous return policy. Furthermore when you get returns, you need to try to get information about why it is returned. Because one of the reasons why stuff will get returned is fit, and the descriptions you get back are going to help you learn more about how to customize clothing to that women to give her a better fit next time. This is essential. There is a lot to learn to make this work. And if you want it to work, it is absolutely necessary that you've got to get it right before trying to get popular.
- SonicSoul 13y ago
  that's a good point. there are plenty of successful niche market businesses. sometimes 5% of market share is all you need. It stands to reason that the more niche your audience, the more important marketing becomes.
edw519 13y ago
The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was women with enough money ... Whenever I read "target audience" and "with enough money" in the same sentence, I run the other way. My experience with prospects "with enough money": - there are far less of them than everyone else - many of them didn't earn it themselves, so... - they really don't really understand the concept of "value" - they don't understand investing vs. consuming - they think they are actually the source of their own gifts, so... - they think they're better than others, so... - they will treat you like shit, not like a trusted business partner - they will second guess you - they will override you - they'll blame you for the bad things - they'll take credit for the good things - they won't pay you on time - they will protest their bills - they'll make you hate them and wonder why you're doing this Save yourself the agony and just build something for the masses, where no one can become big enough to make that much difference. Edit: Like OP, I'm referring to B2C, not enterprise. Edit 2: Normally when I see a bunch of bizarre replies to a post of mine that begins with "My experience...", I just close my browser and go back to work. But I guess I'm in a strange mood, so in order to avoid cluttering up this thread (and in the spirit of good clean fun without malice), here goes: diego, you say "One data point is not generalizable..." and then introduce your own data point. It was never my intent to "generalize", just to share my experience. chc, I'd prefer to read about what you did over of what you hear. If I'm going to listen to someone else's antecdote, I'd rather do it over beers. PaulHoule, nice story, but what's the point? larrys, My list does not directly contradict the success of just about all luxury brands that have been successful. They would probably agree. They've just chosen to thrive in such an environment. I don't. Samuel_Michon. I believe you. Thanks for sharing your experience. fredsted, it pretty much does not differ from everybody else? I'd rather have 100 difficult customers with 1% of my ass than 1 difficult customer with 100% of my ass. That's all. (Sorry if the tone seems negative. I'd love to learn how to better communicate in writing on-line without being misunderstood... It's a work in progress.)
- diego 13y ago
  One data point is not generalizable. I was very successful building enterprise products, and I never figured out how to build anything for the masses. I disagree strongly with your conclusion. If anything, save yourself some agony by building something for a market that you know well, and are interested in.
mxfh 13y ago
Fun fact: Women seem to be more willing to share their body measures than men: http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AMale http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b... http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AFemale http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b... n about 450 each
- chc 13y ago
  I'd wager that women are more likely to confidently know their measurements than men.
- pbhjpbhj 13y ago
  OK, that's what they say ... the body measurements these women say they'd submit, are they their actual measurements in units of length or their "dress size" in the shop that makes their sizes bigger every year to flatter their customers? Maybe that goes for men too? What I can't get my head around is why anyone would choose to get clothes that don't fit when they could have ones that do? It seems like going to a restaurant and refusing to tell the waiter what you'd like to eat and instead hoping that what they'll bring is something you like. Well I can imagine some scenarios, perhaps a spendthrift likes to get roomy clothes and so doesn't want a "perfect fit" because they can't afford to grow out of them after Sunday lunch. Or, maybe a "perfect fit" is interpreted as "skin tight"? People are strange.
PaulHoule 13y ago
It's funny. If you want to look better than average, the first thing to pay attention to is how your clothes fit.
rdl 13y ago
This is why I wouldn't want to build a product where I'm not the target audience. You don't see me doing women's fashion startups, or tampon subscription as a service, or child/teen games, or whatever. It's a problem because ~no 3 year old is an iOS developer, and most developers are 15-40 year old men, so it's less likely you'll find good products for 3 year olds vs. developer tools, but it does avoid this particular problem.
- crgt 13y ago
  FWIW, some developers do have young kids. I make software for mine.
hownottowrite 13y ago
The margins in high-end apparel are so high that it would be better to send three sizes rather than magically select the right one. It's also a better customer experience as the consumer gets a chance to try on merchandise that feel their way to the right choice for their particular body. It also appeals to affluent buyers because they feel the merchant is catering to them in a way that is common in an in-store experience.
nathan_long 13y ago
>> The pitch was to get away from inaccurate generic sizing terms like “small”, “medium” and “large” and move to a system based on body measurements. I'm a man and possibly missing something, but it seems to me that women's clothing is deliberately inaccurate. When I buy pants (in America), the measurements are expressed in inches. I rarely even try them on. Women's sizes vary by brand and seem engineered to flatter rather than describe. A woman buying a "size 0" has not expressed her desire for a predictable, sensible sizing system.
- natesm 13y ago
  You should, there's lots of vanity sizing nonsense going on. For example, a 3sixteen ST-100x in size 30 is actually a 31 inch waist, and it will stretch about another inch! http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x-slim-leg-raw-indigo-denim http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x...
jfarmer 13y ago
I don't buy this. There's something about the article that annoys me, too. I can't quite put my finger on it. I think it's because it has a linkbaity title, a tone of confidence, but is filled with weird stuff. Disclaimer: I co-founded Everlane (http://everlane.com http://everlane.com), although I left to start Dev Bootcamp (http://devbootcamp.com http://devbootcamp.com) last January. I'm just speaking for myself. First, look at the error bars. 100.0% (+0.0/-79.3) Saying "the sample size is too small" doesn't even do it justice. Looking at numbers like this will put you in a mindset where you make silly decisions because, hey, they're numbers! They're objective! Second, this is not how fashion works. As a rule I don't trust survey results early on in a product life cycle -- customer's don't have sufficient context, so you're learning more about their predispositions and biases than their actual attitudes about your (potential) product. Talking "scientifically," there's a huge uncontrolled variable here: brand. Would women share their measurements with Hermès if it meant proper sizing? How many women who shop for high-end clothes employ something like a personal shopper? What about stores that sell more intimate products, like lingerie? How about wedding gowns? Of course a woman would share he measurements to get fitted for a high-end wedding gown. I have yet to commit any capital or conduct any surveys and already I feel like I have a decent framework for approaching these issues. If there are high-end retailers with whom women are comfortable sharing their measurements, what is it about those retailers that makes them comfortable? Why would a woman be willing to share her measurements with Hermés but not Ross Dress for Less? IMO that's a 1000x better starting point than the one asked in the survey. This survey is neither reliable nor valid.
- timborden 13y ago
  You're right, there was more to the decision to pull the plug. Credibility was something that we thought and worked hard on. If you're credible with your shoppers, they'll trust you more. I still believe that data can improve fit, but it may be better suited for a company like Everlane (that makes their own product) than Rewire Attire (that retails product). The truth is, the survey was the nail in the coffin. The suggestion of the blog post is that I might have saved myself a lot of money had I done the survey early. The unspoken question is, would I have proceeded with the business had I known earlier? Is it an obstacle that I could overcome? Who knows. Do I regret the experience....never.
peripetylabs 13y ago
It is not possible to infer anything from such a low sample population (45). For statistically significant results, you would need to spend on the order of $1,000 not $100.
AJ007 13y ago
Any user who upvoted this story should lose all of their karma. A grade schooler could point out what is wrong and horrifically unscientific about this blog post.
overgryphon 13y ago
The OP is way overestimating the importance of body measurements and is targeting the wrong demographic. 1. What looks flattering varies drastically from one woman to the next, and the determining factor of what looks good on you isn't body measurements. It's body shape. Designers tend to target a specific body type, and women who shop for designer clothing need to identify which type they are. This is where style is hard, and where women could use help. 2. Body measurements help determine type, but it's not that straight forward. Petite women with have smaller differences in measurements to indicate type. Shape of certain body features (especially bust) isn't fully indicated by measurements. 3. Type is important not for fit but to determine what styles you should wear. If a user's measurements indicate narrow shoulders, you should not be displaying halter tops, even if the bust, waist and hips sizes are correct. 4. Women with enough money to buy designer clothes and care about fit also have enough money to pay a tailor. They are much more concerned about style and quality, and will pay someone else to make it fit them. Mr. Borden, if you're still interested in the idea I have a few suggestions for your next iteration. Target women with enough money for nice clothes, but don't know how to shop for them. Use either body measurements or some sort of questionnaire to determine a few important body characteristics- type, bust-size, petite, plus, tall, broad shoulders, ect- you could even ask what part of their body they like most/don't like. Market your platform to women as a way to discover their own personal style, to feel more confident in the body they have (self-image is a huge source of shame for many women). Hire some personal shoppers to help write blog posts on style, body type, confidence. Then display clothing based on what would look good on that woman. Not size, style. So if she has a large bust, don't display turtlenecks. This is where you provide value. You could take this a lot further- a user clicks on a top, show pictures of skirts or belts or shoes that would go with it, or even generate outfits that will flatter her. Search is another way to provide value here. It would be awesome to say, I want to look at dresses with this or that neckline, or shirts that match this color.
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
markdown 13y ago
> I dropped over 40 grand Pick it up and be more careful next time.
filopodium 13y ago
http://fits.me/ http://fits.me/ These people are trying to solve this problem. They have also taken a very interesting route and built a robotic mannequin which can change it's shape. In any case I don't think I will ever be able to give a better overview than the site itself.

250 points by timborden 13y ago

Why would it only be for women? I live in Europe and would love to get some thinkgeek tshirts. The shipping cost is high however, so I'd order multiple at once, but I have no clue whether "small" or "medium" will fit me better. So I don't risk ordering them, or they could all be the wrong size. I'm male by the way.

nodata 13y ago
https://www.thinkgeek.com/help/sizing-info.shtml https://www.thinkgeek.com/help/sizing-info.shtml
lmm 13y ago
He was deliberately targeting the high end, designer stuff; the demographic buying >$500 clothes is overwhelmingly female.
- Aardwolf 13y ago
  Ah, I see. True that :)

kailuowang 13y ago

Quite an intriguing article. Just wanna add that the opportunity cost of 1 year is way more than 40 grand. Back to biz school 101, market research is always step 1.

larrys 13y ago

"I found this out by spending $100" "The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was women with enough money to afford high end fashion and that are young enough" Not so fast. Forgetting even the small sample size and methodology I'm wondering whether the OP did any other research at all? And "sharing measurements" is only 1 factor in making this business a success. Additionally no reason that they couldn't have forked/morphed/pivoted the model built to some other group (say the men who buy custom made suits for thousands - not saying that would or would not work but even if OP is correct about the market info (and I don't think enough research was done to prove out the point anyway) it could work in another group.)

ansible 13y ago

This is good advice in general, but the trick is knowing what questions to ask. To knowing which of your (many, many) assumptions might just be wrong. Humans are strange beasts. There are so many seemingly simple things we could do that would vastly improve our lives, yet we refuse to do them.

film42 13y ago

I believe we all make this mistake, event outside of startups. Think way back to middle school when you had a crush on that girl or guy and everything seemed perfect, and you were in love, but they didn't know it yet. All the signs were pointing to, Go for it! But you still waited months and months developing in your mind a perfect moment where you would ask them out, and they would say, "Yes!! I've been waiting for you to ask me forever!!" Then, you finally get enough courage to ask the question, just to get shut down. A 10% positive response is often enough to ignore the other 90%. It's something we're all working on.

GabrielF00 13y ago

Unless I'm missing something here it looks like there were a total of 17 responses (8 yes 9 no). Are you really making a major business decision on a survey with an N of 17?

TallboyOne 13y ago
It starts at 10 cents a response I think, so at most he got 1000. I do agree though if you're right, that is incredibly insignificant data.
columbo 13y ago
This is a really good point, it was the first thing I noticed as well. 17 responses isn't even enough to throw a margin of error at, the entire survey is effectively a margin of error of 100%. If it really was only 17 responses that's the equivalent of asking five people on the street if they like hot dogs and then deciding based on their answers to open up a laundromat in Brooklyn.
- hexedpackets 13y ago
  Once you add in a proper confidence interval, 17 responses on a yes/no question is enough to make decisions like this - as long as you know in advance what your target numbers are. The downside of the small sample is that your margin is going to be extremely large, of course. Using Clopper-Pearson at95% confidence tells us that between 23.3% and 70.8% would answer yes to this question. I do agree that is probably still too broad to decide to kill a business, but if you know you wanted a 60%+ (for example) positive response from this audience to hen that sample is enough to cause some serious worry.
  - svachalek 13y ago
    It's then breaking them down into subcategories. Look at the confidence interval on the posted charts: +/- 80% on the high income responses this survey was interested in. I.E. worthless.
Guvante 13y ago

deleted 13y ago

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thedz 13y ago

It should be noted that while the screenshot shows only 17 responses, the actual survey* has 899 responses. Looks like only 17 responses fit the filters on the sample set. http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1 http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b...

reverend_gonzo 13y ago
He filtered on Female and 25-34, while comparing on income. That shows the same chart as his screenshot. However, that tendency holds at higher age groups which do have more data. I noticed the charts also have what I believe are standard deviation bars, which show that the results are not even close to being statistically significant.

omegant 13y ago

Did he tried with men?. I defenitely would give my measures to be able to buy clothing online, tshirts, hoodies, pants, even caps. I don't buy online right now unless is a bramd I already know and I go directly for my size. Is

ig1 13y ago
If you click on the google survey results image he links to the results where you can look at the male segment as well.
- omegant 13y ago
  Thank you. Any way I was meaning if he did pivot to men apparel, sports tshirts, etc...
abhijitr 13y ago
You should check out http://www.angora.io/feed http://www.angora.io/feed
- illuminate 13y ago
  I end up just going with Asos due to their excellent return policies. There's too much variance among body types and brand-reported sizes that this doesn't seem like something crowdsourcing alone could ameliorate.
michael_h 13y ago
http://www.ratioclothing.com http://www.ratioclothing.com is superb for dress shirts.

ericabiz 13y ago

I agree with you that perfect sizing is the future of fashion retail--especially online. However, I completely disagree with your methodology. This demographic is going to be won over by marketing, and you didn't have the correct marketing play in hand when you ran this survey. I'm going to give you an example: If you ask people: "When shopping for clothes on the web, would you submit your email address if...?" Most people would probably say no. "Submitting your email address" sounds like you're about to "submit to" a bunch of junk email! However, if you ask them if they want a perfect fit (you'll probably need a better way of saying this than you have right now--you'll want to do demographic research to find out how high-income women actually would articulate this), you can find a demographic that will say "yes". As a bonus, you'll have the lingo they use and be more easily able to sell to them because you are speaking their language. tl;dr: Given the word choices and copy you could have used, "submit your body measurements" was almost guaranteed to bust, but it doesn't mean you have the wrong idea. It just means you have the wrong way of saying that idea in a way that appeals to your market.

asciimo 13y ago
I don't think you should massage your sample into giving you an acceptable answer. No matter how you shuffle the words around, it comes down to the blunt action of "submitting your email address" or "submitting your body measurements." If your target demographic is repulsed by the bare truth, you have to decide whether it's worth combating this reality with a "market play." It might be better to change your target demographic, or your product.
- mynewwork 13y ago
  But people will say and do different things substantially by how it is presented. "Would you carry around a device that lets a company track your location 24/7?" will get people to answer "no" who have a cell phone in their pocket. If you had asked the general population 10 years ago if they would give a company a list of all their friends, their hobbies/interests/religion/political beliefs and all their photos they would have shouted no, of course not, but they do that with facebook today.
13y ago

calinet6 13y ago

The data is interesting, but maybe incomplete. Doesn't look like you have quite enough information to truly understand the market. Apologies for name-dropping a colleague's project, but you might want to look at http://validate.io http://validate.io for a more comprehensive, scientific analysis that's actually done by someone who knows how to design surveys and analyze data (they have a PhD design and run a survey for you, it's pretty sweet). A little more than $100 but worth it to have good data on your market. You might still avoid wasting $40k going the wrong direction, but you might be able to trust it more.

losethos 13y ago

just laugh at the stupid fuck India-nigger doctor who sterilized you and makes you impotant. God is just. The CIA which gave you joke hellish jobs. Disability. Living with parents, no car. No license. God is just. ----- God says... country of Cyprus, 4:37 Having land, sold it, and brought the money, and laid it at the apostles' feet. 5:1 But a certain man named Ananias, with Sapphira his wife, sold a possession, 5:2 And kept back part of the price, his wife also being privy to it, and brought a certain part, and laid it at the apostles' feet. 5:3 But Peter said, Ananias, why hath Satan filled thine heart to lie to the Holy Ghost, and to keep back part of the price of the land? 5:4 Whiles it remained, was it not thine own? and after it was sold, was it not in thine own power? why hast thou conceived this thing in thine heart? thou hast not lied unto men, but unto God. 5:5 And Ananias hearing these words fell down, and gave up the ghost: and great fear came on all them that heard these things. 5:6 And the young men arose, wound him up, and carried him out, and buried him. 5:7 And it was about the space of three hours after, when his wife, not knowing what was done, came in. 5:8 And Peter answered unto her, Tell me whether ye sold the land for so much? And she said, Yea, for so much. ---- I did always think we could do without vermin in India and Africa.

swamp40 13y ago

It looks to me like out of 899 responses, only THREE were from the $100K-149K female target. Two of them said NO, and one said YES, making the results 66% negative and 33% positive. Just not enough "on target" data to surmise anything.

bryanlarsen 13y ago

I wonder if the age filter was too low. Older women are more likely to be affluent, and to be more comfortable sharing their body size. Women over the age of 35 buy lots of stuff online, at least the ones I know...

realdlee 13y ago

Surveys have their place, but I'm a little surprised that a student of Steve Blank/Eric Ries' teachings wouldn't be "getting out of the building" and talking to people.

mortenjorck 13y ago
Indeed. Surveys can help you frame what you're looking for, but you need to talk to real people and get a bit more of an understanding of why they feel the way they do.
- GFischer 13y ago
  Sometimes it's tough, and a survey is a poor but doable substitute - I don't know how I would go about interviewing women in the +100k earnings range, and for one of my projects I did a survey because the potential customers were geographically far away. However, I'd never have invested so much before knowing the audience. And he had this HUGE problem of having invested his ego on a (probably very cool) solution, which is one of the toughest challenges for us tech types.

modeless 13y ago

This entire article is based on a failure to understand error bars. The graph clearly shows that it's possible up to 79% of affluent young women would answer "yes" to this question, and more data is needed to draw an actual conclusion.

bkorte 13y ago

But really, the best line from Good Will Hunting is the "how about them apples" line. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmRe_fK7pbw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmRe_fK7pbw

timborden 13y ago
So many good lines....and I agree, that is the best

timborden 13y ago

Wow...thanks for all the comments. I've been a causal reader of Hacker News, but this was my first post. I'm really impressed all the comments. Lots of great questions/comments. There was one thing I neglected to mention in the blog post, that I should mention now. We ran a contest (prior to the survey) that required contestants to submit their body measurements. We wanted shoppers to see the power of submitting their measurements. We threw quite a bit of money and traffic and the contest and we saw almost no engagment. My thinking was, if we can't get shoppers to submit their measurements for a chance to win a free high end fashion design, we might have a problem (let's do a survey!) As @lmm suggested the demographic for high fashion is mostly women. Also, we struggled to find high end men's fashion designers interested in our offering. @ericabiz - We played around with the language on our site, however, admittedly, I'm not a marketer, so there was definitely room for improvement here. Which is why I've signed up for CoFoundersLab (http://www.cofounderslab.com http://www.cofounderslab.com) so I can find a compatible partner before jumping into my next start up.

dizzystar 13y ago
Yuck. Without a doubt, the biggest failures in my marketing career started with "let's give them a free..." Gaining market share or customers via free X promos is a doomed strategy. I have my theories, but the main thrust is some mumbo jumbo about perceived value. I've sat in interviews with more than one company that said with a not-ironic face that suffering now will cause explosive results in the long term. I pipe up and explain why this isn't so. Why I offer this advice for free is beyond me.
- fludlight 13y ago
  I recall reading an article about a pair of grad students who realized that there was a correlation between price and perceived value. IIRC they were researching condom use in the third world and figured out that the locals would use condoms purchased at stores, but would discard condoms passed out for free by NGOs. So the grad students started their own NGO that uses "cool" Trojan/Durex-style marketing to sell condoms dirt cheap. I can't find the article, but it may be this group: http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classnotes_02.php http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/bulletin/2005/summer/classno... Also see: http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/faculty/brent/condoms.pdf http://www.fordham.edu/images/undergraduate/economics/facult... From page 4: Obviously, the whole point of providing condoms is that they be used for sexual activities...They are not meant to be used, for example, for water storage. However, if they are free, then there are a large number of possible uses for condoms that generate positive utility even though the benefits do not cover the costs and they do nothing to prevent the spread of HIV. For example, Epstein (2007, p271) reports that when the CSM run by PSI in Zimbabwe tried to distribute free female condoms, the officials found that people were removing the plastic rings and selling them as jewelry.

mipapage 13y ago

I this not just knowing your market? I had a friend drop $20,000 on a new supplement and training business, built out an app for trainers the way he saw thought it should be, and recruited trainers. Lots. Showed them the app, and got a lot of feedback, but by then it was too late. He was out of money and no dev wanted a piece of the pie. He should have done his market research first. The OP too, no?

incision 13y ago

>"high end apparel/fashion" x 4 Everbody wants clothes that fit. I don't know the first thing about fashion, and my wardrobe is anything but high-end. However, I'm well-paid and ready to be a lifetime customer for anyone who can sell me slacks that simultaneously fit a >36" inseam, <38" waist and thighs which are no stranger to squats.

btilly 13y ago

Surveys may be getting at the wrong question. As http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html http://paulgraham.com/startupideas.html says, you want to work on an idea that a few people really want. Then you want to go out and find some of those people. Talk to them. And make what they want. Concrete case in point. I remember reading an example of how an early focus group mostly panned a particular automobile, but 1/3 of people REALLY LOVED IT. On a survey it would have looked bad, but went on to be one of the most successful vehicles on the road. (I think it might have been the Ford Bronco, but don't quote me on that.) You don't care how many won't buy, you want something that you can find sufficient enthusiastic customers for. When a woman finds something perfect, she likes to tell her friends about it. Suppose that your friend is standing in front of you in great clothing talking about how good the clothing from ____ is, you just sent them your measurements, browse the clothing, and they will send them to you tailored to fit, then you're likely sold. You've got to get those women started. To do that you've got to do like Zappos did. You've got to have a generous return policy. Furthermore when you get returns, you need to try to get information about why it is returned. Because one of the reasons why stuff will get returned is fit, and the descriptions you get back are going to help you learn more about how to customize clothing to that women to give her a better fit next time. This is essential. There is a lot to learn to make this work. And if you want it to work, it is absolutely necessary that you've got to get it right before trying to get popular.

SonicSoul 13y ago
that's a good point. there are plenty of successful niche market businesses. sometimes 5% of market share is all you need. It stands to reason that the more niche your audience, the more important marketing becomes.

edw519 13y ago

The target audience for Rewire Attire, the high end fashion marketplace, was women with enough money ... Whenever I read "target audience" and "with enough money" in the same sentence, I run the other way. My experience with prospects "with enough money": - there are far less of them than everyone else - many of them didn't earn it themselves, so... - they really don't really understand the concept of "value" - they don't understand investing vs. consuming - they think they are actually the source of their own gifts, so... - they think they're better than others, so... - they will treat you like shit, not like a trusted business partner - they will second guess you - they will override you - they'll blame you for the bad things - they'll take credit for the good things - they won't pay you on time - they will protest their bills - they'll make you hate them and wonder why you're doing this Save yourself the agony and just build something for the masses, where no one can become big enough to make that much difference. Edit: Like OP, I'm referring to B2C, not enterprise. Edit 2: Normally when I see a bunch of bizarre replies to a post of mine that begins with "My experience...", I just close my browser and go back to work. But I guess I'm in a strange mood, so in order to avoid cluttering up this thread (and in the spirit of good clean fun without malice), here goes: diego, you say "One data point is not generalizable..." and then introduce your own data point. It was never my intent to "generalize", just to share my experience. chc, I'd prefer to read about what you did over of what you hear. If I'm going to listen to someone else's antecdote, I'd rather do it over beers. PaulHoule, nice story, but what's the point? larrys, My list does not directly contradict the success of just about all luxury brands that have been successful. They would probably agree. They've just chosen to thrive in such an environment. I don't. Samuel_Michon. I believe you. Thanks for sharing your experience. fredsted, it pretty much does not differ from everybody else? I'd rather have 100 difficult customers with 1% of my ass than 1 difficult customer with 100% of my ass. That's all. (Sorry if the tone seems negative. I'd love to learn how to better communicate in writing on-line without being misunderstood... It's a work in progress.)

diego 13y ago
One data point is not generalizable. I was very successful building enterprise products, and I never figured out how to build anything for the masses. I disagree strongly with your conclusion. If anything, save yourself some agony by building something for a market that you know well, and are interested in.

mxfh 13y ago

Fun fact: Women seem to be more willing to share their body measures than men: http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AMale http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b... http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=bzmnn6ltiujd6&question=1&filter=gen%3AFemale http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=b... n about 450 each

chc 13y ago
I'd wager that women are more likely to confidently know their measurements than men.
pbhjpbhj 13y ago
OK, that's what they say ... the body measurements these women say they'd submit, are they their actual measurements in units of length or their "dress size" in the shop that makes their sizes bigger every year to flatter their customers? Maybe that goes for men too? What I can't get my head around is why anyone would choose to get clothes that don't fit when they could have ones that do? It seems like going to a restaurant and refusing to tell the waiter what you'd like to eat and instead hoping that what they'll bring is something you like. Well I can imagine some scenarios, perhaps a spendthrift likes to get roomy clothes and so doesn't want a "perfect fit" because they can't afford to grow out of them after Sunday lunch. Or, maybe a "perfect fit" is interpreted as "skin tight"? People are strange.

PaulHoule 13y ago

It's funny. If you want to look better than average, the first thing to pay attention to is how your clothes fit.

rdl 13y ago

This is why I wouldn't want to build a product where I'm not the target audience. You don't see me doing women's fashion startups, or tampon subscription as a service, or child/teen games, or whatever. It's a problem because ~no 3 year old is an iOS developer, and most developers are 15-40 year old men, so it's less likely you'll find good products for 3 year olds vs. developer tools, but it does avoid this particular problem.

crgt 13y ago
FWIW, some developers do have young kids. I make software for mine.

hownottowrite 13y ago

The margins in high-end apparel are so high that it would be better to send three sizes rather than magically select the right one. It's also a better customer experience as the consumer gets a chance to try on merchandise that feel their way to the right choice for their particular body. It also appeals to affluent buyers because they feel the merchant is catering to them in a way that is common in an in-store experience.

nathan_long 13y ago

>> The pitch was to get away from inaccurate generic sizing terms like “small”, “medium” and “large” and move to a system based on body measurements. I'm a man and possibly missing something, but it seems to me that women's clothing is deliberately inaccurate. When I buy pants (in America), the measurements are expressed in inches. I rarely even try them on. Women's sizes vary by brand and seem engineered to flatter rather than describe. A woman buying a "size 0" has not expressed her desire for a predictable, sensible sizing system.

natesm 13y ago
You should, there's lots of vanity sizing nonsense going on. For example, a 3sixteen ST-100x in size 30 is actually a 31 inch waist, and it will stretch about another inch! http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x-slim-leg-raw-indigo-denim http://www.3sixteen.com/collections/homepage/products/st100x...

jfarmer 13y ago

I don't buy this. There's something about the article that annoys me, too. I can't quite put my finger on it. I think it's because it has a linkbaity title, a tone of confidence, but is filled with weird stuff. Disclaimer: I co-founded Everlane (http://everlane.com http://everlane.com), although I left to start Dev Bootcamp (http://devbootcamp.com http://devbootcamp.com) last January. I'm just speaking for myself. First, look at the error bars. 100.0% (+0.0/-79.3) Saying "the sample size is too small" doesn't even do it justice. Looking at numbers like this will put you in a mindset where you make silly decisions because, hey, they're numbers! They're objective! Second, this is not how fashion works. As a rule I don't trust survey results early on in a product life cycle -- customer's don't have sufficient context, so you're learning more about their predispositions and biases than their actual attitudes about your (potential) product. Talking "scientifically," there's a huge uncontrolled variable here: brand. Would women share their measurements with Hermès if it meant proper sizing? How many women who shop for high-end clothes employ something like a personal shopper? What about stores that sell more intimate products, like lingerie? How about wedding gowns? Of course a woman would share he measurements to get fitted for a high-end wedding gown. I have yet to commit any capital or conduct any surveys and already I feel like I have a decent framework for approaching these issues. If there are high-end retailers with whom women are comfortable sharing their measurements, what is it about those retailers that makes them comfortable? Why would a woman be willing to share her measurements with Hermés but not Ross Dress for Less? IMO that's a 1000x better starting point than the one asked in the survey. This survey is neither reliable nor valid.

timborden 13y ago
You're right, there was more to the decision to pull the plug. Credibility was something that we thought and worked hard on. If you're credible with your shoppers, they'll trust you more. I still believe that data can improve fit, but it may be better suited for a company like Everlane (that makes their own product) than Rewire Attire (that retails product). The truth is, the survey was the nail in the coffin. The suggestion of the blog post is that I might have saved myself a lot of money had I done the survey early. The unspoken question is, would I have proceeded with the business had I known earlier? Is it an obstacle that I could overcome? Who knows. Do I regret the experience....never.

peripetylabs 13y ago

It is not possible to infer anything from such a low sample population (45). For statistically significant results, you would need to spend on the order of $1,000 not $100.

AJ007 13y ago

Any user who upvoted this story should lose all of their karma. A grade schooler could point out what is wrong and horrifically unscientific about this blog post.

overgryphon 13y ago

The OP is way overestimating the importance of body measurements and is targeting the wrong demographic. 1. What looks flattering varies drastically from one woman to the next, and the determining factor of what looks good on you isn't body measurements. It's body shape. Designers tend to target a specific body type, and women who shop for designer clothing need to identify which type they are. This is where style is hard, and where women could use help. 2. Body measurements help determine type, but it's not that straight forward. Petite women with have smaller differences in measurements to indicate type. Shape of certain body features (especially bust) isn't fully indicated by measurements. 3. Type is important not for fit but to determine what styles you should wear. If a user's measurements indicate narrow shoulders, you should not be displaying halter tops, even if the bust, waist and hips sizes are correct. 4. Women with enough money to buy designer clothes and care about fit also have enough money to pay a tailor. They are much more concerned about style and quality, and will pay someone else to make it fit them. Mr. Borden, if you're still interested in the idea I have a few suggestions for your next iteration. Target women with enough money for nice clothes, but don't know how to shop for them. Use either body measurements or some sort of questionnaire to determine a few important body characteristics- type, bust-size, petite, plus, tall, broad shoulders, ect- you could even ask what part of their body they like most/don't like. Market your platform to women as a way to discover their own personal style, to feel more confident in the body they have (self-image is a huge source of shame for many women). Hire some personal shoppers to help write blog posts on style, body type, confidence. Then display clothing based on what would look good on that woman. Not size, style. So if she has a large bust, don't display turtlenecks. This is where you provide value. You could take this a lot further- a user clicks on a top, show pictures of skirts or belts or shoes that would go with it, or even generate outfits that will flatter her. Search is another way to provide value here. It would be awesome to say, I want to look at dresses with this or that neckline, or shirts that match this color.

deleted 13y ago

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markdown 13y ago

> I dropped over 40 grand Pick it up and be more careful next time.

filopodium 13y ago

http://fits.me/ http://fits.me/ These people are trying to solve this problem. They have also taken a very interesting route and built a robotic mannequin which can change it's shape. In any case I don't think I will ever be able to give a better overview than the site itself.