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> And then; then I shall buy. This is why it will not crash long enough to give you the opportunity. That's the nature of the market. Everyone else is going to

> And then; then I shall buy. This is why it will not crash long enough to give you the opportunity. That's the nature of the market. Everyone else is going to be doing the same thing, especially speculators. It will probably crash soon enough, but some negative event will need to trigger it. And it'll have to be worse than a website getting hacked or a hardfork, which were the kinds of things that caused crashes years ago when the market was younger.

pseudonym 14y ago
>And it'll have to be worse than a website getting hacked or a hardfork, which were the kinds of things that caused crashes years ago when the market was younger. Actually, despite the market being older, there's still only one major exchange. If there were another competitor to MtGox that was moving the same volume, I'd agree with you; but as it stands we're still only a MtGox hack or crash away from some major changes in the BTC->USD prices.
- unabridged 14y ago
  This is a big issue, the next biggest USD exchange has about a -10% price difference and I'm not sure what that means.
  - CompelTechnic 14y ago
    The smaller exchanges lag behind due to a combination of low volume/liquidity and non-negligible transfer fees that prevent arbitration.
  - joezydeco 14y ago
    Are you talking about BTC-E? Because I noticed that as well, until someone pointed out that they're in Russia and it's nearly impossible to move USD out of there, making arbitrage just a nice idea that can't really happen.
Zombieball 14y ago
Are we forgetting the BTC crash of 2011? I think it was around the $2 mark in November, 2011 (down from a previous high of like $35).
- oleganza 14y ago
  In summer 2011: 1. Mining was creating a lot of new BTC in relation to existing stock. 2. No much services and shops accepting BTC. 3. Amateur security on MtGox and misc websites. 4. The biggest exchange was 6-7 months old. In 2013: 1. Much lower inflation due to mining. 2. Many long-term investments in mining, payment processing and related services. 3. Multiple well-secured big exchanges. 4. General increase in number of hands holding BTC. 5. General increase in education on how to keep BTC safe and secure.

pseudonym 14y ago

>And it'll have to be worse than a website getting hacked or a hardfork, which were the kinds of things that caused crashes years ago when the market was younger. Actually, despite the market being older, there's still only one major exchange. If there were another competitor to MtGox that was moving the same volume, I'd agree with you; but as it stands we're still only a MtGox hack or crash away from some major changes in the BTC->USD prices.

unabridged 14y ago
This is a big issue, the next biggest USD exchange has about a -10% price difference and I'm not sure what that means.
- CompelTechnic 14y ago
  The smaller exchanges lag behind due to a combination of low volume/liquidity and non-negligible transfer fees that prevent arbitration.
- joezydeco 14y ago
  Are you talking about BTC-E? Because I noticed that as well, until someone pointed out that they're in Russia and it's nearly impossible to move USD out of there, making arbitrage just a nice idea that can't really happen.

Zombieball 14y ago

Are we forgetting the BTC crash of 2011? I think it was around the $2 mark in November, 2011 (down from a previous high of like $35).

oleganza 14y ago
In summer 2011: 1. Mining was creating a lot of new BTC in relation to existing stock. 2. No much services and shops accepting BTC. 3. Amateur security on MtGox and misc websites. 4. The biggest exchange was 6-7 months old. In 2013: 1. Much lower inflation due to mining. 2. Many long-term investments in mining, payment processing and related services. 3. Multiple well-secured big exchanges. 4. General increase in number of hands holding BTC. 5. General increase in education on how to keep BTC safe and secure.