4 ms·

Well, then, bitcoin was about due for a HUGE DISASTER to bring the price back down to sane levels, wasn't it? For those not watching, BTC is currently trading

by blhack 14y ago

Well, then, bitcoin was about due for a HUGE DISASTER to bring the price back down to sane levels, wasn't it? For those not watching, BTC is currently trading at ~$45.

eurleif 14y ago
What determines whether a price is sane or insane for a commodity with no intrinsic value?
- freework 14y ago
  Because "intrinsic value" is not as important than just "value". Bitcoin has a value in the sense that people can use it as a currency that has features that are desirable and useful.
- blhack 14y ago
  It's more than doubled in the last two months. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g...
  - baddox 14y ago
    That doesn't seem necessarily relevant.
    - sliverstorm 14y ago
      Wild runs are typically- not by requirement, but typically- indicative of a crash in the near future. This is because speculation is usually the main driving force behind very steep ramps.
      - icelancer 14y ago
        What determines a "wild run?" As has been shown time and time again in academic and corporate research, the single best predictor of an asset's value is the current market trading price for that asset.
        sliverstorm 14y ago
        So you'd argue there is never a bad time to buy?
        icelancer 14y ago
        No.
        sliverstorm 14y ago
        It's great to have an actual conversation. You should try it some time.
        icelancer 14y ago
        Well, you asked me a yes/no question that has little to do with what I said. So I figured I'd just answer it in the same manner.
        sliverstorm 14y ago
        You are establishing a pattern of responding to comments with maximal brevity and offering zero constructive input. Ok, so you think RickHull was using "Exceedingly rudimentary technical analysis based on non-scientific trends"? What have you got for us that is so much better?
        1123581321 14y ago
        You have that backwards. It would always be a bad time to buy because of trading costs.
        RickHull 14y ago
        > What determines a "wild run?" Parabolic trajectory is a common indicator for a very sharp top and major correction.
        14y ago
- GhotiFish 14y ago
  the same thing that determines a sane or insane price for a fiat currency with no intrinsic value. I'm actually not sure which side I stand on that issue, to be honest.
  - johndevor 14y ago
    IMHO, bitcoin appeals for various reasons that compare favorably with national currencies such as the USD. Those reasons being: anonymity, ease of use, and freedom to send my money any where in the world.
    - GhotiFish 14y ago
      err... I think I disagree on those first two points. Managing a wallet in a manner that won't result in it getting stolen (as in, disconnected from your main machine) is not easy. Though I suppose tools can be created to make this easier, they don't exist yet. Also, bitcoin is very traceable. Publicly traceable even. You know which group is getting what, when, and once you ask those recipients for who, you know who's being getting what, when, where, and maybe a bit about how much they have. Apparently this can be improved? I have no idea how without trusting someone.
      - johndevor 14y ago
        I think there are ways to obfuscate who owns what, e.g. always use new addresses and send your coins around a few times to other addresses to hide the true origin. As far as I understand it, it's very hard to track that kind of obfuscation (though certainly not impossible, sure). As for managing your wallet, you could use a service like coinbase.com. They keep their coins offline. And you could browse to their site through Tor.
        sneak 14y ago
        > As far as I understand it, it's very hard to track that kind of obfuscation You understand it incorrectly, then. Bitcoin is not anonymous and transaction flows through the network are very easy to trace. Additionally, it is very easy to link specific transactions to regions or even specific network addresses/services.
- bluedanieru 14y ago
  The derived market valuation of the commodity at that price in whatever reference currency you choose, of course.
- DavidSJ 14y ago
  The asset's capacity to facilitate economic trade causes individuals to store it so that they can participate in such exchanges when opportunities present themselves. The sane price is the total amount of such wealth that individuals are storing or will store in the future, discounted for time, divided by the number of such assets. Now good luck figuring that out.

by blhack 14y ago

Well, then, bitcoin was about due for a HUGE DISASTER to bring the price back down to sane levels, wasn't it? For those not watching, BTC is currently trading at ~$45.

eurleif 14y ago

What determines whether a price is sane or insane for a commodity with no intrinsic value?

freework 14y ago
Because "intrinsic value" is not as important than just "value". Bitcoin has a value in the sense that people can use it as a currency that has features that are desirable and useful.
blhack 14y ago
It's more than doubled in the last two months. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g...
- baddox 14y ago
  That doesn't seem necessarily relevant.
  - sliverstorm 14y ago
    Wild runs are typically- not by requirement, but typically- indicative of a crash in the near future. This is because speculation is usually the main driving force behind very steep ramps.
    - icelancer 14y ago
      What determines a "wild run?" As has been shown time and time again in academic and corporate research, the single best predictor of an asset's value is the current market trading price for that asset.
      - sliverstorm 14y ago
        So you'd argue there is never a bad time to buy?
        icelancer 14y ago
        No.
        sliverstorm 14y ago
        It's great to have an actual conversation. You should try it some time.
        icelancer 14y ago
        Well, you asked me a yes/no question that has little to do with what I said. So I figured I'd just answer it in the same manner.
        sliverstorm 14y ago
        You are establishing a pattern of responding to comments with maximal brevity and offering zero constructive input. Ok, so you think RickHull was using "Exceedingly rudimentary technical analysis based on non-scientific trends"? What have you got for us that is so much better?
        1123581321 14y ago
        You have that backwards. It would always be a bad time to buy because of trading costs.
      - RickHull 14y ago
        > What determines a "wild run?" Parabolic trajectory is a common indicator for a very sharp top and major correction.
        14y ago
GhotiFish 14y ago
the same thing that determines a sane or insane price for a fiat currency with no intrinsic value. I'm actually not sure which side I stand on that issue, to be honest.
- johndevor 14y ago
  IMHO, bitcoin appeals for various reasons that compare favorably with national currencies such as the USD. Those reasons being: anonymity, ease of use, and freedom to send my money any where in the world.
  - GhotiFish 14y ago
    err... I think I disagree on those first two points. Managing a wallet in a manner that won't result in it getting stolen (as in, disconnected from your main machine) is not easy. Though I suppose tools can be created to make this easier, they don't exist yet. Also, bitcoin is very traceable. Publicly traceable even. You know which group is getting what, when, and once you ask those recipients for who, you know who's being getting what, when, where, and maybe a bit about how much they have. Apparently this can be improved? I have no idea how without trusting someone.
    - johndevor 14y ago
      I think there are ways to obfuscate who owns what, e.g. always use new addresses and send your coins around a few times to other addresses to hide the true origin. As far as I understand it, it's very hard to track that kind of obfuscation (though certainly not impossible, sure). As for managing your wallet, you could use a service like coinbase.com. They keep their coins offline. And you could browse to their site through Tor.
      - sneak 14y ago
        > As far as I understand it, it's very hard to track that kind of obfuscation You understand it incorrectly, then. Bitcoin is not anonymous and transaction flows through the network are very easy to trace. Additionally, it is very easy to link specific transactions to regions or even specific network addresses/services.
bluedanieru 14y ago
The derived market valuation of the commodity at that price in whatever reference currency you choose, of course.
DavidSJ 14y ago
The asset's capacity to facilitate economic trade causes individuals to store it so that they can participate in such exchanges when opportunities present themselves. The sane price is the total amount of such wealth that individuals are storing or will store in the future, discounted for time, divided by the number of such assets. Now good luck figuring that out.