5 ms·

The Koreas are effectively a proxy war between the US and China.

adventured 14y ago
Absolutely. China could dismantle North Korea in a heartbeat, by pulling all support at a minimum or telling the military junta it's over and if they want to survive at all they have to play ball. Kim would be served up on a platter the next day. North Korea is nothing but a way for China to poke the US constantly.
- iSnow 14y ago
  I wonder if this is true. Having a rogue dictator developing nukes in your backyard is not the thing most governments are comfortable with. Beijing - Pyongyang is merely 800Km, after all.
  - adventured 14y ago
    It was at least true in the past. Whether China, with their changing politics, culture and economy, still feel that way today, is a big question. I'd certainly believe the equation is very different in their eyes now (different in the sense of the consequences, China has a lot more to lose these days having come so far). Before North Korea had a nuclear weapon, much less the ability to build numerous of them, China propped up North Korea in countless ways for decades (from food to weapons to moral support). China could have very trivially killed Kim (or requested his overthrow), with absolutely no consequences. It's not like the weak and vastly smaller North Korean army was going to invade China, particularly after the Kims were gone. I believe China could still dismantle North Korea. I think their fear is the chaos that could follow, from millions of refuges to perhaps a new military dictatorship to loose nukes.
- jbooth 14y ago
  Eh. I'm not saying that Chinese leadership doesn't enjoy the ability to poke the US, and play that up for domestic political reasons, but indications I've seen are that they've been getting sick of North Korea's shit. Check their language in these periodic crises from the late 90s until now -- they practically sound like they're on the US's side now compared to the late 90s. There's a more practical reason for them to hope the regime doesn't fall: it creates a refugee crisis on their border and the CCP governance model is 'stability uber alles'.
  - CamperBob2 14y ago
    (Sorry, didn't mean to mod you down, but pre-touchscreen HN decided it was a good idea to separate the up and down arrows by 1 pixel.)
CamperBob2 14y ago
True in 1952 but hardly true now. More recently China has indulged the Kims because they don't want tens of millions of refugees flooding over the border. Kim Jong-Un may be about to find that his sponsor's patience is neither unconditional nor unlimited. The Chinese leaders are not stupid. They know they have a problem. The best endgame for Kim is an offer of exile in China, at this point. That may be what he is fishing for here.
- raverbashing 14y ago
  I wonder what's the possibility of China simply annexing NK Considering what would happen if the borders to China were opened, I think it would be a huge humanitarian situation.

Absolutely. China could dismantle North Korea in a heartbeat, by pulling all support at a minimum or telling the military junta it's over and if they want to survive at all they have to play ball. Kim would be served up on a platter the next day. North Korea is nothing but a way for China to poke the US constantly.

iSnow 14y ago
I wonder if this is true. Having a rogue dictator developing nukes in your backyard is not the thing most governments are comfortable with. Beijing - Pyongyang is merely 800Km, after all.
- adventured 14y ago
  It was at least true in the past. Whether China, with their changing politics, culture and economy, still feel that way today, is a big question. I'd certainly believe the equation is very different in their eyes now (different in the sense of the consequences, China has a lot more to lose these days having come so far). Before North Korea had a nuclear weapon, much less the ability to build numerous of them, China propped up North Korea in countless ways for decades (from food to weapons to moral support). China could have very trivially killed Kim (or requested his overthrow), with absolutely no consequences. It's not like the weak and vastly smaller North Korean army was going to invade China, particularly after the Kims were gone. I believe China could still dismantle North Korea. I think their fear is the chaos that could follow, from millions of refuges to perhaps a new military dictatorship to loose nukes.
jbooth 14y ago
Eh. I'm not saying that Chinese leadership doesn't enjoy the ability to poke the US, and play that up for domestic political reasons, but indications I've seen are that they've been getting sick of North Korea's shit. Check their language in these periodic crises from the late 90s until now -- they practically sound like they're on the US's side now compared to the late 90s. There's a more practical reason for them to hope the regime doesn't fall: it creates a refugee crisis on their border and the CCP governance model is 'stability uber alles'.
- CamperBob2 14y ago
  (Sorry, didn't mean to mod you down, but pre-touchscreen HN decided it was a good idea to separate the up and down arrows by 1 pixel.)

CamperBob2 14y ago

True in 1952 but hardly true now. More recently China has indulged the Kims because they don't want tens of millions of refugees flooding over the border. Kim Jong-Un may be about to find that his sponsor's patience is neither unconditional nor unlimited. The Chinese leaders are not stupid. They know they have a problem. The best endgame for Kim is an offer of exile in China, at this point. That may be what he is fishing for here.

raverbashing 14y ago
I wonder what's the possibility of China simply annexing NK Considering what would happen if the borders to China were opened, I think it would be a huge humanitarian situation.