5 ms·

This is a very short-sighted analysis. There are other players and forces involved in gaming than just the big three of last generation. In fact, if I had to be

by rictic 14y ago

This is a very short-sighted analysis. There are other players and forces involved in gaming than just the big three of last generation. In fact, if I had to bet, I would bet against any of them being the largest force in consumer gaming in four years.

MatthewPhillips 14y ago
I only know what I know, and I don't know (or have heard any real rumors, for that matter) of anyone else entering the AAA-title console market. Of course secrets exist.
- phaus 14y ago
  I guess Valve isn't a AAA publisher.
  - chii 14y ago
    the last aaa game they published was portal 2. quite a while ago.
- Steko 14y ago
  The problem is the "AAA-title console market" is a subset of the "home video game market" which is of course being invaded from both ends.
  - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
    It's not really a problem, though. People have mistaken what is a growing market for one that is being invaded. It's just growing. Some people want casual games, which is fine, but Call of Duty games continue to break sales records, studios get bigger budgets (See Bungie's upcoming games), and those games won't play on an Ouya or an Apple TV.
    - Steko 14y ago
      Apple's presumed console competitor hasn't even been released so it's premature to say what games won't play on it. They already pay game developers more than Microsoft and Sony combined. My argument is not that people don't want to play CoD. My argument is that even Activision wants Apple and come in and kill the current console paradigm. They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies.
      - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
        Sure, maybe Apple is going to release a high-end gaming console. And maybe they are going to release a watch. And maybe they are going to release a TV. I don't have any inside information on these things, and a gaming console hasn't (to my knowledge) even been rumored at this point. I don't know if they want to make one. I don't know if it would be profitable enough for them. I... don't know. So I'm going to just go off of what I do know, which is the XBox 720, the PS4, a huge drop off, the Wii U, a huge dropoff and various ARM based consoles.
      - nemothekid 14y ago
        > They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies. I don't understand. Are you saying that Activision should kill CoD and fund the next Angry Birds so they could sell more copies of a cheaper game, or are you saying that CoD could sell 50 million copies if it was priced at $10? Both of those claims are questionable. I am pretty sure Activision is scared shitless of becoming the next Rovio, and I doubt CoD would even break even being priced at $10. Considering that CoD had a 200 million dollar budget, they would need to sell 20 million copies to break even vs 3.33 million, and consider to date (4 months) they have sold 20 million copies. Even if such a price cut caused sales to double, you would have: 20 million * $60 * 30% - $200 million = $160 million dollars 40 million * $10 * 70% - $200 million = $80 million dollars. Again, they would break even with their old model if they sold ~50 million copies, however, I don't think "hardcore" gaming is that price sensitive, and I doubt we would see a 150% increase in sales if you cut CoD's price to $10. Lastly, where would these people come from? I don't think Activision has an untapped market 5x their current market size that want to buy Call of Duty but only for $10. Even if you talk about opening to the "casual" market, Nintendo showed us just how toxic that is. Casual gamers don't buy games. I'm sure its a lot smarter to sell to the gamer who buy 3 games a year @ $60, than it so to sell to 5 people who will buy 1 game /year @ $10. So if Activision could sell 50 million copies of CoD, would that stick them in the same position as Rovio, where all they can do is sell CoD, while WoW and Diablo bleed cash?
cyanbane 14y ago
I agree with this sentiment. The biggest gaming platform in 2018 is one that hasn't even been started on yet.

by rictic 14y ago

MatthewPhillips 14y ago

I only know what I know, and I don't know (or have heard any real rumors, for that matter) of anyone else entering the AAA-title console market. Of course secrets exist.

phaus 14y ago
I guess Valve isn't a AAA publisher.
- chii 14y ago
  the last aaa game they published was portal 2. quite a while ago.
Steko 14y ago
The problem is the "AAA-title console market" is a subset of the "home video game market" which is of course being invaded from both ends.
- MatthewPhillips 14y ago
  It's not really a problem, though. People have mistaken what is a growing market for one that is being invaded. It's just growing. Some people want casual games, which is fine, but Call of Duty games continue to break sales records, studios get bigger budgets (See Bungie's upcoming games), and those games won't play on an Ouya or an Apple TV.
  - Steko 14y ago
    Apple's presumed console competitor hasn't even been released so it's premature to say what games won't play on it. They already pay game developers more than Microsoft and Sony combined. My argument is not that people don't want to play CoD. My argument is that even Activision wants Apple and come in and kill the current console paradigm. They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies.
    - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
      Sure, maybe Apple is going to release a high-end gaming console. And maybe they are going to release a watch. And maybe they are going to release a TV. I don't have any inside information on these things, and a gaming console hasn't (to my knowledge) even been rumored at this point. I don't know if they want to make one. I don't know if it would be profitable enough for them. I... don't know. So I'm going to just go off of what I do know, which is the XBox 720, the PS4, a huge drop off, the Wii U, a huge dropoff and various ARM based consoles.
    - nemothekid 14y ago
      > They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies. I don't understand. Are you saying that Activision should kill CoD and fund the next Angry Birds so they could sell more copies of a cheaper game, or are you saying that CoD could sell 50 million copies if it was priced at $10? Both of those claims are questionable. I am pretty sure Activision is scared shitless of becoming the next Rovio, and I doubt CoD would even break even being priced at $10. Considering that CoD had a 200 million dollar budget, they would need to sell 20 million copies to break even vs 3.33 million, and consider to date (4 months) they have sold 20 million copies. Even if such a price cut caused sales to double, you would have: 20 million * $60 * 30% - $200 million = $160 million dollars 40 million * $10 * 70% - $200 million = $80 million dollars. Again, they would break even with their old model if they sold ~50 million copies, however, I don't think "hardcore" gaming is that price sensitive, and I doubt we would see a 150% increase in sales if you cut CoD's price to $10. Lastly, where would these people come from? I don't think Activision has an untapped market 5x their current market size that want to buy Call of Duty but only for $10. Even if you talk about opening to the "casual" market, Nintendo showed us just how toxic that is. Casual gamers don't buy games. I'm sure its a lot smarter to sell to the gamer who buy 3 games a year @ $60, than it so to sell to 5 people who will buy 1 game /year @ $10. So if Activision could sell 50 million copies of CoD, would that stick them in the same position as Rovio, where all they can do is sell CoD, while WoW and Diablo bleed cash?

cyanbane 14y ago

I agree with this sentiment. The biggest gaming platform in 2018 is one that hasn't even been started on yet.