7 ms·

It doesn't matter if they are Microsoft II since Microsoft is their only competition in this space.

rictic 14y ago
This is a very short-sighted analysis. There are other players and forces involved in gaming than just the big three of last generation. In fact, if I had to bet, I would bet against any of them being the largest force in consumer gaming in four years.
- MatthewPhillips 14y ago
  I only know what I know, and I don't know (or have heard any real rumors, for that matter) of anyone else entering the AAA-title console market. Of course secrets exist.
  - phaus 14y ago
    I guess Valve isn't a AAA publisher.
    - chii 14y ago
      the last aaa game they published was portal 2. quite a while ago.
  - Steko 14y ago
    The problem is the "AAA-title console market" is a subset of the "home video game market" which is of course being invaded from both ends.
    - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
      It's not really a problem, though. People have mistaken what is a growing market for one that is being invaded. It's just growing. Some people want casual games, which is fine, but Call of Duty games continue to break sales records, studios get bigger budgets (See Bungie's upcoming games), and those games won't play on an Ouya or an Apple TV.
      - Steko 14y ago
        Apple's presumed console competitor hasn't even been released so it's premature to say what games won't play on it. They already pay game developers more than Microsoft and Sony combined. My argument is not that people don't want to play CoD. My argument is that even Activision wants Apple and come in and kill the current console paradigm. They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies.
        MatthewPhillips 14y ago
        Sure, maybe Apple is going to release a high-end gaming console. And maybe they are going to release a watch. And maybe they are going to release a TV. I don't have any inside information on these things, and a gaming console hasn't (to my knowledge) even been rumored at this point. I don't know if they want to make one. I don't know if it would be profitable enough for them. I... don't know. So I'm going to just go off of what I do know, which is the XBox 720, the PS4, a huge drop off, the Wii U, a huge dropoff and various ARM based consoles.
        nemothekid 14y ago
        > They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies. I don't understand. Are you saying that Activision should kill CoD and fund the next Angry Birds so they could sell more copies of a cheaper game, or are you saying that CoD could sell 50 million copies if it was priced at $10? Both of those claims are questionable. I am pretty sure Activision is scared shitless of becoming the next Rovio, and I doubt CoD would even break even being priced at $10. Considering that CoD had a 200 million dollar budget, they would need to sell 20 million copies to break even vs 3.33 million, and consider to date (4 months) they have sold 20 million copies. Even if such a price cut caused sales to double, you would have: 20 million * $60 * 30% - $200 million = $160 million dollars 40 million * $10 * 70% - $200 million = $80 million dollars. Again, they would break even with their old model if they sold ~50 million copies, however, I don't think "hardcore" gaming is that price sensitive, and I doubt we would see a 150% increase in sales if you cut CoD's price to $10. Lastly, where would these people come from? I don't think Activision has an untapped market 5x their current market size that want to buy Call of Duty but only for $10. Even if you talk about opening to the "casual" market, Nintendo showed us just how toxic that is. Casual gamers don't buy games. I'm sure its a lot smarter to sell to the gamer who buy 3 games a year @ $60, than it so to sell to 5 people who will buy 1 game /year @ $10. So if Activision could sell 50 million copies of CoD, would that stick them in the same position as Rovio, where all they can do is sell CoD, while WoW and Diablo bleed cash?
- cyanbane 14y ago
  I agree with this sentiment. The biggest gaming platform in 2018 is one that hasn't even been started on yet.
SandB0x 14y ago
Until the Steam Box is out.
- klodolph 14y ago
  The Steam box is competition whether or not it's out, since it's on the horizon and people will potentially not buy a PS4 so they can wait and see what the Steam box is like.
  - untog 14y ago
    Who are these people, if not PC gamers? Steam is fantastic, but it's a name that is totally unknown to almost all console gamers. Just the presence of a Steam Box isn't going to magically convert people, they have a huge uphill struggle ahead of them. Most of their market, IMO, is PC gamers.
    - mcantelon 14y ago
      Steam has a large, loyal following and, because of this, people like myself (console gamer) and my girlfriend (not a gamer) know about it through online media. I currently play PS3 games because there is no PC gaming solution I can plop down in my living room and have it just work. But once the Steam Box comes out that will change. Not only will I have a living room compatible ready-to-wear PC gaming solution, but gaming will also be cheaper because Steam has tons of deals. Steam is also reputedly a lot more developer friendly than Sony and Microsoft so I really don't see how Sony and Microsoft are going to be able to compete in the long term.
    - LinXitoW 14y ago
      By your logic, I, as purely a PC gamer, shouldn't know anything about the PS3 or the XBOX360 even existing, yet i definitely know of them.
vecter 14y ago
I don't know why you're saying that, disruption is right around the corner: http://greenthrottle.com/ http://greenthrottle.com/ - Play mobile games on your TV http://www.bluestacks.com/ http://www.bluestacks.com/ - Play mobile games on your PC http://www.ouya.tv/ http://www.ouya.tv/ - Android gaming console http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/6/3958162/valve-steam-box-cake http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/6/3958162/valve-steam-box-cak... - Play games sold on Steam directly on your TV
- jdsemrau 14y ago
  Wake me up when Madden and Fifa run on these.
  - untog 14y ago
    And Call of Duty. And Modern Warfare. And, and and..
  - 404error 14y ago
    I'm with you on this one. I own a PS3 and for the past 3 years I've only purchased 3 games. FIFA 11, 12, and 13. I will probably buy a PS4 just for FIFA XX
    - ekianjo 14y ago
      You know you can buy the exact same games on PC cheaper, and play with a pad on it with much better resolution and Framerate? Purchasing a console to play only non-exclusive titles... I have never understood that.
      - Drakim 14y ago
        A gaming PC that can run these games on a better resolution and framerate costs a lot more than a PS3
        ekianjo 14y ago
wlesieutre 14y ago
With console cycles getting longer and longer, the PS4 needs to be competitive for a decade. Even if Ouya and their ilk don't take off in the near future, tablets and phones will keep chipping away at console gaming. Microsoft may be the competition right now, but they can't count on it staying that way. When the PSP and PS3 came out, the iPhone didn't exist yet, but things change.
- Volpe 14y ago
  The PS Vita is the answer in the mobile space, and it's release cycle will likely be shorter than the PlayStation Consoles.
deleted 14y ago
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deleted 14y ago
[deleted]

This is a very short-sighted analysis. There are other players and forces involved in gaming than just the big three of last generation. In fact, if I had to bet, I would bet against any of them being the largest force in consumer gaming in four years.

MatthewPhillips 14y ago
I only know what I know, and I don't know (or have heard any real rumors, for that matter) of anyone else entering the AAA-title console market. Of course secrets exist.
- phaus 14y ago
  I guess Valve isn't a AAA publisher.
  - chii 14y ago
    the last aaa game they published was portal 2. quite a while ago.
- Steko 14y ago
  The problem is the "AAA-title console market" is a subset of the "home video game market" which is of course being invaded from both ends.
  - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
    It's not really a problem, though. People have mistaken what is a growing market for one that is being invaded. It's just growing. Some people want casual games, which is fine, but Call of Duty games continue to break sales records, studios get bigger budgets (See Bungie's upcoming games), and those games won't play on an Ouya or an Apple TV.
    - Steko 14y ago
      Apple's presumed console competitor hasn't even been released so it's premature to say what games won't play on it. They already pay game developers more than Microsoft and Sony combined. My argument is not that people don't want to play CoD. My argument is that even Activision wants Apple and come in and kill the current console paradigm. They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies.
      - MatthewPhillips 14y ago
        Sure, maybe Apple is going to release a high-end gaming console. And maybe they are going to release a watch. And maybe they are going to release a TV. I don't have any inside information on these things, and a gaming console hasn't (to my knowledge) even been rumored at this point. I don't know if they want to make one. I don't know if it would be profitable enough for them. I... don't know. So I'm going to just go off of what I do know, which is the XBox 720, the PS4, a huge drop off, the Wii U, a huge dropoff and various ARM based consoles.
      - nemothekid 14y ago
        > They don't want to keep making 30% of $60 games that sell 10 million copies when they could be making 70% of a $10 game that moves 50 million copies. I don't understand. Are you saying that Activision should kill CoD and fund the next Angry Birds so they could sell more copies of a cheaper game, or are you saying that CoD could sell 50 million copies if it was priced at $10? Both of those claims are questionable. I am pretty sure Activision is scared shitless of becoming the next Rovio, and I doubt CoD would even break even being priced at $10. Considering that CoD had a 200 million dollar budget, they would need to sell 20 million copies to break even vs 3.33 million, and consider to date (4 months) they have sold 20 million copies. Even if such a price cut caused sales to double, you would have: 20 million * $60 * 30% - $200 million = $160 million dollars 40 million * $10 * 70% - $200 million = $80 million dollars. Again, they would break even with their old model if they sold ~50 million copies, however, I don't think "hardcore" gaming is that price sensitive, and I doubt we would see a 150% increase in sales if you cut CoD's price to $10. Lastly, where would these people come from? I don't think Activision has an untapped market 5x their current market size that want to buy Call of Duty but only for $10. Even if you talk about opening to the "casual" market, Nintendo showed us just how toxic that is. Casual gamers don't buy games. I'm sure its a lot smarter to sell to the gamer who buy 3 games a year @ $60, than it so to sell to 5 people who will buy 1 game /year @ $10. So if Activision could sell 50 million copies of CoD, would that stick them in the same position as Rovio, where all they can do is sell CoD, while WoW and Diablo bleed cash?
cyanbane 14y ago
I agree with this sentiment. The biggest gaming platform in 2018 is one that hasn't even been started on yet.

SandB0x 14y ago

Until the Steam Box is out.

klodolph 14y ago
The Steam box is competition whether or not it's out, since it's on the horizon and people will potentially not buy a PS4 so they can wait and see what the Steam box is like.
- untog 14y ago
  Who are these people, if not PC gamers? Steam is fantastic, but it's a name that is totally unknown to almost all console gamers. Just the presence of a Steam Box isn't going to magically convert people, they have a huge uphill struggle ahead of them. Most of their market, IMO, is PC gamers.
  - mcantelon 14y ago
    Steam has a large, loyal following and, because of this, people like myself (console gamer) and my girlfriend (not a gamer) know about it through online media. I currently play PS3 games because there is no PC gaming solution I can plop down in my living room and have it just work. But once the Steam Box comes out that will change. Not only will I have a living room compatible ready-to-wear PC gaming solution, but gaming will also be cheaper because Steam has tons of deals. Steam is also reputedly a lot more developer friendly than Sony and Microsoft so I really don't see how Sony and Microsoft are going to be able to compete in the long term.
  - LinXitoW 14y ago
    By your logic, I, as purely a PC gamer, shouldn't know anything about the PS3 or the XBOX360 even existing, yet i definitely know of them.

vecter 14y ago

I don't know why you're saying that, disruption is right around the corner: http://greenthrottle.com/ http://greenthrottle.com/ - Play mobile games on your TV http://www.bluestacks.com/ http://www.bluestacks.com/ - Play mobile games on your PC http://www.ouya.tv/ http://www.ouya.tv/ - Android gaming console http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/6/3958162/valve-steam-box-cake http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/6/3958162/valve-steam-box-cak... - Play games sold on Steam directly on your TV

jdsemrau 14y ago
Wake me up when Madden and Fifa run on these.
- untog 14y ago
  And Call of Duty. And Modern Warfare. And, and and..
- 404error 14y ago
  I'm with you on this one. I own a PS3 and for the past 3 years I've only purchased 3 games. FIFA 11, 12, and 13. I will probably buy a PS4 just for FIFA XX
  - ekianjo 14y ago
    You know you can buy the exact same games on PC cheaper, and play with a pad on it with much better resolution and Framerate? Purchasing a console to play only non-exclusive titles... I have never understood that.
    - Drakim 14y ago
      A gaming PC that can run these games on a better resolution and framerate costs a lot more than a PS3
      - ekianjo 14y ago

wlesieutre 14y ago

With console cycles getting longer and longer, the PS4 needs to be competitive for a decade. Even if Ouya and their ilk don't take off in the near future, tablets and phones will keep chipping away at console gaming. Microsoft may be the competition right now, but they can't count on it staying that way. When the PSP and PS3 came out, the iPhone didn't exist yet, but things change.

Volpe 14y ago
The PS Vita is the answer in the mobile space, and it's release cycle will likely be shorter than the PlayStation Consoles.

deleted 14y ago

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deleted 14y ago

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