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It's only small because bitcoins are a pain in the ass to get, and haven't spread yet. Once they become mainstream, there's no reason SilkRoad can't be the next

by rorrr 14y ago

It's only small because bitcoins are a pain in the ass to get, and haven't spread yet. Once they become mainstream, there's no reason SilkRoad can't be the next huge thing. Think about - there's nothing that stops them from selling pirated books, movies, clothing at a huge discount compared to, let's say, Amazon. Many things only cost a lot because the manufacturer's profit margin is huge. That's true about anything clothing-related.

clicks 14y ago
> Think about - there's nothing that stops them from selling pirated books, movies, clothing at a huge discount compared to, let's say, Amazon. And that is precisely when Bitcoins will receive renewed focus from officials all over and g-men will step forth to somehow try to make operations involving Bitcoins illegal.
- codesuela 14y ago
  Books I could see, but only expensive academic material. I'd guess the market for those is fairly small. You don't need to get behind TOR to buy fake clothing (ioffer.com comes to mind, pretty sure there are tons of other sites around who would love to sell you fake clothing straight from a Chinese factory) And why would you buy physical copies of pirated movies if you can get them for free?
  - rorrr 14y ago
    > And why would you buy physical copies of pirated movies if you can get them for free? BluRay market is 5-6 billion dollars. People buy them.
olefoo 14y ago
There is a certain point where their bandwidth will exceed the noise threshold and it will be trivial to trace the location of their servers and of their offices, tor or no tor. And if they are simultaneously the subject of renewed enforcement interest... """ Night City was like a deranged experiment in social Darwinism, designed by a bored researcher who kept one thumb permanently on the fast-forward button. Stop hustling and you sank without a trace, but move a little too swiftly and you'd break the fragile surface tension of the black market; either way, you were gone, with nothing left of you but some vague memory in the mind of a fixture like Ratz, though heart or lungs or kidneys might survive in the service of some stranger with New Yen for the clinic tanks. """ - Neuromancer: William Gibson
- waterlesscloud 14y ago
  I would imagine if your income was high enough you could spread the bandwidth around enough to stay under the radar for a long time. I would think tracing the flow of bitcoins to them might be more productive, though that could be spread around quite a bit too. You're right, though. There's some level at which they'd get nailed.
- rorrr 14y ago
  > and it will be trivial to trace the location of their servers and of their offices You're very naive if you think that SilkRoad is not running on servers rented anonymously with bitcoins, in a country outside of US/European jurisdiction.
  - olefoo 14y ago
    Actually I sort of assume that they are running the servers in a jurisdiction that is less than cooperative with US authorities. But at some point that becomes immaterial. If the operators are ID'd that's when they get in difficulties. If they are smart, they have multiple "real" identities set up to be ID'd first, and a plan to sterilize, evac and start over when the cover is blown. But they have accomplished something that few people ever get to do. Pioneer a new kind of crime.
schrodinger 14y ago
To me the problem is the delivery system. Everything is completely untraceable up until the very second you enter your home address. Is there really a feasible way to evade this liability? Maybe there is a market for truly anonymous "po boxes" or something? How else do you keep the last step anonymous?
- olefoo 14y ago
  Your options are: 1. A layer of indirection a.k.a. finding someone who will receive mail for you without giving up your name. 2. Owning the distribution channel, and using addresses that are downstream of you while diverting your packages to their intended destination. Note that if the USPS is involved, both of these are federal crimes...
- jaggederest 14y ago
  If I was going to do this kind of thing, which I'm not since none of these grey market items has much appeal to me, I would go online and find a listing of houses which are vacant (foreclosures, or for-sale houses) and use their address. You would not be able to use USPS, though, since those places have their mail stopped. I don't believe this directly violates any laws but IANAL. Alternately, if you were alert enough at your mail fraud you could find a neighbor who is out of the house during the day and use their name and address, and intercept the package from their mailbox. This is, of course, a felony.
- rorrr 14y ago
  Private PO Boxes exist already. NZ: https://www.privatebox.co.nz https://www.privatebox.co.nz Canada: https://www.bufferbox.com/ https://www.bufferbox.com/
- robinh 14y ago
  1. Let the package be delivered to a certain address in an apartment building (preferably not too close to your home), say Building X Apartment 123. 2. Once the package is delivered, get to the apartment and tell the owner "Oh, I'm so sorry, I accidentally entered Apartment 123 in my order, instead of Apartment 223, which is where I actually live! I can haz package nao?" Most likely, they will not know the residents at Apartment 223. 3. In most cases, you will now have your package. (If they ask for some ID, you could always go "Sure, do you want me to get that first?", most people will then give you the package right there. If not, just leave and don't come back.) Yes, this is a purely hypothetical idea, but it seems to me that it's pretty easy to come up with something relatively secure.
betterunix 14y ago
"It's only small because bitcoins are a pain in the ass to get, and haven't spread yet. Once they become mainstream" In other words, it will always be small. Bitcoin has almost no chance of becoming mainstream.

by rorrr 14y ago

clicks 14y ago

> Think about - there's nothing that stops them from selling pirated books, movies, clothing at a huge discount compared to, let's say, Amazon. And that is precisely when Bitcoins will receive renewed focus from officials all over and g-men will step forth to somehow try to make operations involving Bitcoins illegal.

codesuela 14y ago
Books I could see, but only expensive academic material. I'd guess the market for those is fairly small. You don't need to get behind TOR to buy fake clothing (ioffer.com comes to mind, pretty sure there are tons of other sites around who would love to sell you fake clothing straight from a Chinese factory) And why would you buy physical copies of pirated movies if you can get them for free?
- rorrr 14y ago
  > And why would you buy physical copies of pirated movies if you can get them for free? BluRay market is 5-6 billion dollars. People buy them.

olefoo 14y ago

There is a certain point where their bandwidth will exceed the noise threshold and it will be trivial to trace the location of their servers and of their offices, tor or no tor. And if they are simultaneously the subject of renewed enforcement interest... """ Night City was like a deranged experiment in social Darwinism, designed by a bored researcher who kept one thumb permanently on the fast-forward button. Stop hustling and you sank without a trace, but move a little too swiftly and you'd break the fragile surface tension of the black market; either way, you were gone, with nothing left of you but some vague memory in the mind of a fixture like Ratz, though heart or lungs or kidneys might survive in the service of some stranger with New Yen for the clinic tanks. """ - Neuromancer: William Gibson

waterlesscloud 14y ago
I would imagine if your income was high enough you could spread the bandwidth around enough to stay under the radar for a long time. I would think tracing the flow of bitcoins to them might be more productive, though that could be spread around quite a bit too. You're right, though. There's some level at which they'd get nailed.
rorrr 14y ago
> and it will be trivial to trace the location of their servers and of their offices You're very naive if you think that SilkRoad is not running on servers rented anonymously with bitcoins, in a country outside of US/European jurisdiction.
- olefoo 14y ago
  Actually I sort of assume that they are running the servers in a jurisdiction that is less than cooperative with US authorities. But at some point that becomes immaterial. If the operators are ID'd that's when they get in difficulties. If they are smart, they have multiple "real" identities set up to be ID'd first, and a plan to sterilize, evac and start over when the cover is blown. But they have accomplished something that few people ever get to do. Pioneer a new kind of crime.

schrodinger 14y ago

To me the problem is the delivery system. Everything is completely untraceable up until the very second you enter your home address. Is there really a feasible way to evade this liability? Maybe there is a market for truly anonymous "po boxes" or something? How else do you keep the last step anonymous?

olefoo 14y ago
Your options are: 1. A layer of indirection a.k.a. finding someone who will receive mail for you without giving up your name. 2. Owning the distribution channel, and using addresses that are downstream of you while diverting your packages to their intended destination. Note that if the USPS is involved, both of these are federal crimes...
jaggederest 14y ago
If I was going to do this kind of thing, which I'm not since none of these grey market items has much appeal to me, I would go online and find a listing of houses which are vacant (foreclosures, or for-sale houses) and use their address. You would not be able to use USPS, though, since those places have their mail stopped. I don't believe this directly violates any laws but IANAL. Alternately, if you were alert enough at your mail fraud you could find a neighbor who is out of the house during the day and use their name and address, and intercept the package from their mailbox. This is, of course, a felony.
rorrr 14y ago
Private PO Boxes exist already. NZ: https://www.privatebox.co.nz https://www.privatebox.co.nz Canada: https://www.bufferbox.com/ https://www.bufferbox.com/
robinh 14y ago
1. Let the package be delivered to a certain address in an apartment building (preferably not too close to your home), say Building X Apartment 123. 2. Once the package is delivered, get to the apartment and tell the owner "Oh, I'm so sorry, I accidentally entered Apartment 123 in my order, instead of Apartment 223, which is where I actually live! I can haz package nao?" Most likely, they will not know the residents at Apartment 223. 3. In most cases, you will now have your package. (If they ask for some ID, you could always go "Sure, do you want me to get that first?", most people will then give you the package right there. If not, just leave and don't come back.) Yes, this is a purely hypothetical idea, but it seems to me that it's pretty easy to come up with something relatively secure.

betterunix 14y ago

"It's only small because bitcoins are a pain in the ass to get, and haven't spread yet. Once they become mainstream" In other words, it will always be small. Bitcoin has almost no chance of becoming mainstream.