5 ms·
This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here
by xiaoma 14y ago
This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.
- swah 14y agoWhoever solves this — i.e. whoever creates AOL for real people, or whatever the heck this thing turns out to be — is going to be really, really rich.
- thedudemabry 14y agoI'm similarly impressed. While we can argue about the specificity of several predictions, I can say that I would not have predicted any of them in 2004 other than Programmers Will Be Average and We Will Have A New Online Meeting Place.
- jwdunne 14y agoThat really stood out for me too. Even more so, the fact Paul Graham is referred to in the prediction just before. PG forms the conclusion of Steve's lisp prediction and also founded a type of community mentioned in the prediction after it.
- S4M 14y agoWhen reading the article, I had the feeling that prediction #6 was actually FaceBook.
- ipedrazas 14y agosame here... Facebook trumps Aol
- rdrey 14y agoor Reddit.
- ganarajpr 14y agoI think its twitter more than facebook.. Facebook is oriented towards connecting friends.. while twitter is oriented towards people with similiar interests..
- kristaps 14y agoThat point was one of the easier predictions and vague enough to fit a number of currently popular services, but I'd have to agree that Facebook fits it best.
- Samuel_Michon 14y agoFacebook already existed when this was written. HN was just around the corner and fits a lot better, imo. I figured "you and I" referred to developers and entrepeneurs, not the general public.
- yen223 14y agoI don't think Facebook was big at the time, was it?
- stinky613 14y agoIf you were in college in 2004 it was pretty unavoidable
- bruceboughton 14y agoFacebook didn't launch 'til February 2004. Initially it was only available at US Ivy League colleges and, then, in 2005 at some international universities, but it was not "unavoidable" in 2004. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Facebook http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Facebook
- Semaphor 14y ago> then, in 2005 at some international universities Every, if you bothered to get your university internal mail unlocked. I had to send them a mail with the website of my German university and how our e-mail addresses looked, about 6 weeks later I was able tor register.
- stinky613 14y agoPerhaps I spoke too broadly, but I signed up (according to my Facebook account) September 6, 2004 and only did so after being nagged by friends and acquaintances. So, for me when I look back, it felt unavoidable. Note: I went to a university in the US but not an Ivy
- StevenXC 14y ago
- oinksoft 14y agoPrediction #6 is not very ambitious. The only way several new "internet hangouts" would not emerge would be if the internet suddenly had ceased to exist.
- theycallmemorty 14y agoFunny, HackerNews is what came to my mind for that point. I assumed by 'you and I' he meant developers/entrepreneurs/hackers. If he was in fact referring to the mainstream, then Twitter would be another great example.
- GhotiFish 14y agoThe ambiguity is helping that prediction quiet a bit, wouldn't you say?