4 ms·

> I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous"is coming from. In 2012Q3, 122 million Android devices were sold http://news.cnet.com/8301-

> I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous"is coming from. In 2012Q3, 122 million Android devices were sold http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sales-up-47-percent-as-android-increases-its-lead/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sale... Over the same time period, about 75 million PCs and laptops were sold, mostly running Windows. Android is already beating Windows in terms of rate at which devices are shipped running it. If people start using Android devices for more stuff, and consequently use Windows devices less, Microsoft is in big trouble.

shanelja 14y ago
But the issue here is that you are comparing fundamentally different pieces of technology, and yes, yes, a smart phone is a computer too, but I don't see anyone using them for general purpose computing right now and to be honest, I don't see it any time in the future. Go in to any office, literally, any office, and you won't find anyone working on an iPad or their Samsung Galaxy, they will be working on a PC or a laptop, most likely running Windows and for the most part they are happy with it. Comparing the sales of Windows against the sales of Android is like comparing the sales of Toasters against the sales of Microwaves, sure, they might be at some level similar appliances but they are used for completely different reasons. A smartphone is used for consumption, it is a luxury most people have or aspire to have and while the PC or Laptop may fall in to that department at home, in the office, they are used for creation (except from when we are bored of course...) and for the foreseeable future, that's how things will remain until the space is completely "disrupted" (whatever that means.) I'm going to put it like this, I don't live in Silicone Valley, I live in a small town in the north of the UK, and every person I know and who's house I have been to. Every single one has both a smart phone and a PC, that's not just me saying it, that's every single person. The reason why the numbers are so different is something crucial and so simple that we always seem to overlook it: Normal people[1] only need one computer for their home and they share it, but they want to be in contact with their family via phones at all times, and the kids these days don't want a Nokia 3310, they want the newest, most expensive model, because they are COOL. You can attribute it to whatever merely visible swing in the market you want to, but that is the simple truth. [1] - By which I mean people who aren't in the tech industry.
- DeepDuh 14y ago
  You're missing something big here: Software support. In the past it was completely reasonable to develop all your stuff Win-only. Hence the lock-in, hence the market share. Nowadays, even in forward looking big corps, when new software projects are planned, Android and iOS support is usually not only considered but a priority. That's why we see more and more software becoming POSIX compatible. And once this is all done, the OS becomes completely interchangable, at which point MS looses big time, they basically loose their long time business model of domination through Windows market share. Once this transition has been completed, MS will become a Software company like all the others, they won't have any home turf advantage anymore. For this reason I'm very skeptical whether MS will allow the Office port. It would basically show that they have accepted their fate (which would be a good sign for their management however).
- jsmeaton 14y ago
  Thanks for writing this up. Too often I hear the numbers quoted in sales and think this exact thing. How often do you buy a PC? Every 3 years or so (probably more for most families)? A phone though.. Every 2? The price points of phones and tablets allow a total upgrade a lot quicker than a desktop/laptop.
- gnaffle 14y ago
  "A smartphone is used for consumption" is just a bad generalization. Is making calls, sending emails and text messages "consumption"? No. And for tablets it's an even worse generalization. But still, _most_ computer usage _is_ consumption! And most of it that is not (like word processing) can be done by attaching a keyboard to a tablet. The office workers that actually need a workstation (like graphics designers, engineers and programmers) is only a small fraction of the workforce that uses a computer today. Business use is one thing (and changes there always happen a a glacial pace). But my parents and my girlfriend now rarely uses their PC. They either use a tablet, or their smartphone if the tablet isn't nearby! So the key here is convenience, which incidentally is why the laptop became so popular in the consumer market. When that PC dies, they will take a hard look at whether they really need to replace it.
  - 14y ago
kaolinite 14y ago
A lot of people are still getting their first smartphone. They already have a Windows laptop or desktop at home. Also, desktops and laptops tend to last longer (for regular users, I'd suggest around 3-5 years) than a smartphone (lifespan of which is usually about 2 years, after which you're upgraded). Finally, a smartphone is "free". Well, not really, but it can certainly feel like it - you can go into a store, pay nothing up front and walk out with a £600 smartphone. People tend to pay up front for desktops and laptops, however.
mens_rea 14y ago
There were also more loaves of bread sold than window machines in 2012Q3. Oh, sorry, I thought we were just comparing unrelated things to 'prove' Microsoft is in trouble...

shanelja 14y ago

But the issue here is that you are comparing fundamentally different pieces of technology, and yes, yes, a smart phone is a computer too, but I don't see anyone using them for general purpose computing right now and to be honest, I don't see it any time in the future. Go in to any office, literally, any office, and you won't find anyone working on an iPad or their Samsung Galaxy, they will be working on a PC or a laptop, most likely running Windows and for the most part they are happy with it. Comparing the sales of Windows against the sales of Android is like comparing the sales of Toasters against the sales of Microwaves, sure, they might be at some level similar appliances but they are used for completely different reasons. A smartphone is used for consumption, it is a luxury most people have or aspire to have and while the PC or Laptop may fall in to that department at home, in the office, they are used for creation (except from when we are bored of course...) and for the foreseeable future, that's how things will remain until the space is completely "disrupted" (whatever that means.) I'm going to put it like this, I don't live in Silicone Valley, I live in a small town in the north of the UK, and every person I know and who's house I have been to. Every single one has both a smart phone and a PC, that's not just me saying it, that's every single person. The reason why the numbers are so different is something crucial and so simple that we always seem to overlook it: Normal people[1] only need one computer for their home and they share it, but they want to be in contact with their family via phones at all times, and the kids these days don't want a Nokia 3310, they want the newest, most expensive model, because they are COOL. You can attribute it to whatever merely visible swing in the market you want to, but that is the simple truth. [1] - By which I mean people who aren't in the tech industry.

DeepDuh 14y ago
You're missing something big here: Software support. In the past it was completely reasonable to develop all your stuff Win-only. Hence the lock-in, hence the market share. Nowadays, even in forward looking big corps, when new software projects are planned, Android and iOS support is usually not only considered but a priority. That's why we see more and more software becoming POSIX compatible. And once this is all done, the OS becomes completely interchangable, at which point MS looses big time, they basically loose their long time business model of domination through Windows market share. Once this transition has been completed, MS will become a Software company like all the others, they won't have any home turf advantage anymore. For this reason I'm very skeptical whether MS will allow the Office port. It would basically show that they have accepted their fate (which would be a good sign for their management however).
jsmeaton 14y ago
Thanks for writing this up. Too often I hear the numbers quoted in sales and think this exact thing. How often do you buy a PC? Every 3 years or so (probably more for most families)? A phone though.. Every 2? The price points of phones and tablets allow a total upgrade a lot quicker than a desktop/laptop.
gnaffle 14y ago
"A smartphone is used for consumption" is just a bad generalization. Is making calls, sending emails and text messages "consumption"? No. And for tablets it's an even worse generalization. But still, _most_ computer usage _is_ consumption! And most of it that is not (like word processing) can be done by attaching a keyboard to a tablet. The office workers that actually need a workstation (like graphics designers, engineers and programmers) is only a small fraction of the workforce that uses a computer today. Business use is one thing (and changes there always happen a a glacial pace). But my parents and my girlfriend now rarely uses their PC. They either use a tablet, or their smartphone if the tablet isn't nearby! So the key here is convenience, which incidentally is why the laptop became so popular in the consumer market. When that PC dies, they will take a hard look at whether they really need to replace it.
- 14y ago

kaolinite 14y ago

A lot of people are still getting their first smartphone. They already have a Windows laptop or desktop at home. Also, desktops and laptops tend to last longer (for regular users, I'd suggest around 3-5 years) than a smartphone (lifespan of which is usually about 2 years, after which you're upgraded). Finally, a smartphone is "free". Well, not really, but it can certainly feel like it - you can go into a store, pay nothing up front and walk out with a £600 smartphone. People tend to pay up front for desktops and laptops, however.

mens_rea 14y ago

There were also more loaves of bread sold than window machines in 2012Q3. Oh, sorry, I thought we were just comparing unrelated things to 'prove' Microsoft is in trouble...