15 ms·

I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous" is coming from. Maybe market share has dropped a bit, but, Microsoft still rules the basicall

I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous" is coming from. Maybe market share has dropped a bit, but, Microsoft still rules the basically the whole desktop market. Sometimes in the startup world with all the glowing Apple logos, we lose sense of the rest of the world (heck, even the rest of the United States).

pwthornton 14y ago
I'm referring to operating systems as a whole. People are spending less time using Windows devices and more time using smartphones and tablets. I'd love to use Office with syncing on my iPad, but that's not an option, so I have to find other ways to do these tasks. OS X market share is growing, but that's not what I'm referring to. Ten years ago, almost everyone's computing time was spent on Windows. Now even people who use Windows desktops/laptops have iPads, Android phones, etc.
- dhaivatpandya 14y ago
  That makes sense.
- shurcooL 14y ago
  If you're in US, you could use OnLive Desktop for Office on tablets.
  - josteink 14y ago
    That's a workaround, and a US-only one so, for those who are very, very eager to run Office. It's not a natural first option for writing documents if you're on a device which already has Google Docs, Polaris Office, Kingsoft Office or anything like that. In fact, most people will probably never even consider it an option. At least not until Microsoft provides a native version of Office for their preferred procrastination platform. And kids growing up these days spend more (most?) of their time on mobile devices, running iOS or Android, or when on a laptop, 99% of the time in a browser. The time when people grew up and learnt Microsoft by default is definitely over. These days you can actually grow up, learn computers and internet without ever once using Microsoft software. It's not that far fetched. This is Microsoft's problem. They can no longer claim to be the one default everyone knows, uses and are familiar with (and hence prefer).
derrida 14y ago
I've never visited San Franscisco & seen this 'start-up world' you speak of, but the widespread use of Macs surprises me a bit. In all my IRL interactions with developers, it's always free software variants of *nix with a minority of Macs. I guess I interact with the FOSS/Security/Privacy community a lot though. I guess if your customers use them it's good to use them.
hnriot 14y ago
One word: smartphones
shmerl 14y ago
Linux usage is rising. Microsoft rules yet, but it's already losing ground.
- thepirateway 14y ago
  As per statistics... Mac OS is rising faster than Linux. No doubt Windows is ruler in this market but soon Mac OS and Linux will gain good market share..
sysop073 14y ago
> Maybe market share has dropped a bit This is the definition of "becoming less ubiquitous". It doesn't have to mean they're falling apart and about to be irrelevant, they just have less of a market share than they did
- pyre 14y ago
  Just the be clear, market share != install base. Market share is basically the percentage of new computers being sold (presumably limited to desktop computers). Things to note: - This could just mean that sales of new Windows computers fell relative to computers with other operating systems, but the sales of Windows computers in absolute numbers still grew. - This could mean Window users are buying fewer new computers, but Apple users are more prone to upgrade their computers to get the next new shiny model (or upgrade to escape some Rev 1.0 issues that Apple refuses to acknowledge/fix).
  - gnaffle 14y ago
    Actually the opposite is true, apparently Mac users keep their computers for much longer than Windows users. A key reason is probably the price of a new Mac, another that time and OS upgrades generally don't make a Mac much slower (the exception being Lion). Many Windows PCs are simply thrown away because it's cheaper for a non-techie to buy a new one than to reinstall the OS an all their apps.
    - pyre 14y ago
      In the early 2000's, I knew a number of people that would upgrade every cycle or so by reselling their old Mac and buying the shiny new one.
InclinedPlane 14y ago
Inflection points and mind share. Microsoft no longer has the mind share of either the public or the development community. The "cool kids" tend not to develop on MS platforms these days by choice. Look at Jeff Atwood, he was a prominant asp.net mvc dev (stackoverflow) and he has chosen to use rails for his next project (discourse). This trend is all the more troublesome because C# is really a fanstastic language. But the downsides of being tied to the Windows/MSSQL/IIS platform is like have a boat anchor around your ankle. Similarly, how many people are excited about windows 8 vs. iOS or android? Also, look at Microsoft's big pushes, bing and winphone 7+. Both have been at best partial successes, and they need more than that for a company their size. The exact moment in time that is the biggest problem for a company facing potential decline like Microsoft is not when they have ceded the majority of marketshare to a competitor, nor is it when their revenues and marketshare being to contract. The key moment is the inflection point in their growth rate, when the 2nd derivative turns from positive to negative. That's the point where if nothing is done then eventually the peak will be reached and decline will set in. That's the point where there is still the opportunity to turn things around, it's the point where the resources are still available and the least work needs to be done to make a change.
- danabramov 14y ago
  >C# is really a fanstastic language. But the downsides of being tied to the Windows/MSSQL/IIS platform is like have a boat anchor around your ankle. Similarly, how many people are excited about windows 8 vs. iOS or android? Great times for Xamarin.
  - wsc981 14y ago
    As an iOS developer, I'm interested in Windows Phone. In my past I programmed a bit with the .NET API's (mainly VB, later on a little bit of C#). I've recently dabbled in Android, and personally I don't like the tooling (Eclipse, emulator slow). Just last week I downloaded the MonoTouch toolkit and will experiment a bit with creating a multi-platform (iOS / Android) app with a partially shared codebase in C#. So far I like the following things about the MonoTouch toolkit: a) UIKit methods / classes are called more or less the same. Don't need to look up the API much. b) from what I understand, it should be possible to create my own wrappers around Obj-C (iOS) or Java (Android) objects. c) Create optimised user interfaces for each platform. This is the part where the code will differ mostly. d) MonoDevelop is a nice, though somewhat sparse / limited IDE. I really hate the future creep of Eclipse and imo Visual Studio could also use a little trimming in the UI - otherwise a fine product though. I love Xcode.
cabalamat 14y ago
> I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous"is coming from. In 2012Q3, 122 million Android devices were sold http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sales-up-47-percent-as-android-increases-its-lead/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sale... Over the same time period, about 75 million PCs and laptops were sold, mostly running Windows. Android is already beating Windows in terms of rate at which devices are shipped running it. If people start using Android devices for more stuff, and consequently use Windows devices less, Microsoft is in big trouble.
- shanelja 14y ago
  But the issue here is that you are comparing fundamentally different pieces of technology, and yes, yes, a smart phone is a computer too, but I don't see anyone using them for general purpose computing right now and to be honest, I don't see it any time in the future. Go in to any office, literally, any office, and you won't find anyone working on an iPad or their Samsung Galaxy, they will be working on a PC or a laptop, most likely running Windows and for the most part they are happy with it. Comparing the sales of Windows against the sales of Android is like comparing the sales of Toasters against the sales of Microwaves, sure, they might be at some level similar appliances but they are used for completely different reasons. A smartphone is used for consumption, it is a luxury most people have or aspire to have and while the PC or Laptop may fall in to that department at home, in the office, they are used for creation (except from when we are bored of course...) and for the foreseeable future, that's how things will remain until the space is completely "disrupted" (whatever that means.) I'm going to put it like this, I don't live in Silicone Valley, I live in a small town in the north of the UK, and every person I know and who's house I have been to. Every single one has both a smart phone and a PC, that's not just me saying it, that's every single person. The reason why the numbers are so different is something crucial and so simple that we always seem to overlook it: Normal people[1] only need one computer for their home and they share it, but they want to be in contact with their family via phones at all times, and the kids these days don't want a Nokia 3310, they want the newest, most expensive model, because they are COOL. You can attribute it to whatever merely visible swing in the market you want to, but that is the simple truth. [1] - By which I mean people who aren't in the tech industry.
Spooky23 14y ago
They do, but large companies are no longer investing in the Wintel PC + Windows. Windows 8 trepedation will put the nail in the coffin, as Enterprise IT is afraid of Windows 8, and the key new PC form factors (Ultrabook, Tablet) are going to require it. So companies are looking at landing Windows 7 in Citrix and VMWare VDI environments. This is scary for Microsoft, as both companies are looking at breaking up the Windows platform into layers, and injecting their own platform tools. Microsoft needs a landing place for Office that isn't completely controlled by VMWare/Citrix, which is the true cash cow now that the OS is becoming commoditized. So they are finally investing in VDI with Server 2012, and supporting Office via HTTP and alternate platforms. If you think about 1983 vs. 2013, VDI is the green screen, and tablets are the PCs.
ConceptJunkie 14y ago
I think the parent has a point. The thing that would stop 90% of business users from being able to use Linux is Microsoft Office. In the past several years, I've come to believe that Office is a much more potent monopoly than Windows itself. Of course, I also think Office is a blight on the software world and the sooner it dies, the better for everyone, but that's another topic. The fact is, Microsoft can only maintain the status quo (and this has been true for the better part of two decades) by milking their monopoly so it makes great business sense to get Office on as many platforms as possible. I imagine this wouldn't be happening if Android weren't around, but this move would allow a lot of people to migrate to Linux and remain with Microsoft Office, and I suspect that's exactly what will happen for a lot of folks. Let's face it. No one wants Windows 8, and a lot of people would choose an alternative but the elephant in the room has always been Office. I'm all for supporting competitors to Office, but they will continue to fight an uphill battle against an entrenched and corrupt foe who does everything in its power to undermine competition, DoJ notwithstanding. Given that people are not so much abandoning Windows for other choices on the desktop, but many are abandoning the desktop itself - Windows is essentially non-existent in the mobile market and its success in the tablet realm remains to be seen - this is another reason Microsoft should make this move.

pwthornton 14y ago

I'm referring to operating systems as a whole. People are spending less time using Windows devices and more time using smartphones and tablets. I'd love to use Office with syncing on my iPad, but that's not an option, so I have to find other ways to do these tasks. OS X market share is growing, but that's not what I'm referring to. Ten years ago, almost everyone's computing time was spent on Windows. Now even people who use Windows desktops/laptops have iPads, Android phones, etc.

dhaivatpandya 14y ago
That makes sense.
shurcooL 14y ago
If you're in US, you could use OnLive Desktop for Office on tablets.
- josteink 14y ago
  That's a workaround, and a US-only one so, for those who are very, very eager to run Office. It's not a natural first option for writing documents if you're on a device which already has Google Docs, Polaris Office, Kingsoft Office or anything like that. In fact, most people will probably never even consider it an option. At least not until Microsoft provides a native version of Office for their preferred procrastination platform. And kids growing up these days spend more (most?) of their time on mobile devices, running iOS or Android, or when on a laptop, 99% of the time in a browser. The time when people grew up and learnt Microsoft by default is definitely over. These days you can actually grow up, learn computers and internet without ever once using Microsoft software. It's not that far fetched. This is Microsoft's problem. They can no longer claim to be the one default everyone knows, uses and are familiar with (and hence prefer).

derrida 14y ago

I've never visited San Franscisco & seen this 'start-up world' you speak of, but the widespread use of Macs surprises me a bit. In all my IRL interactions with developers, it's always free software variants of *nix with a minority of Macs. I guess I interact with the FOSS/Security/Privacy community a lot though. I guess if your customers use them it's good to use them.

hnriot 14y ago

One word: smartphones

shmerl 14y ago

Linux usage is rising. Microsoft rules yet, but it's already losing ground.

thepirateway 14y ago
As per statistics... Mac OS is rising faster than Linux. No doubt Windows is ruler in this market but soon Mac OS and Linux will gain good market share..

sysop073 14y ago

> Maybe market share has dropped a bit This is the definition of "becoming less ubiquitous". It doesn't have to mean they're falling apart and about to be irrelevant, they just have less of a market share than they did

pyre 14y ago
Just the be clear, market share != install base. Market share is basically the percentage of new computers being sold (presumably limited to desktop computers). Things to note: - This could just mean that sales of new Windows computers fell relative to computers with other operating systems, but the sales of Windows computers in absolute numbers still grew. - This could mean Window users are buying fewer new computers, but Apple users are more prone to upgrade their computers to get the next new shiny model (or upgrade to escape some Rev 1.0 issues that Apple refuses to acknowledge/fix).
- gnaffle 14y ago
  Actually the opposite is true, apparently Mac users keep their computers for much longer than Windows users. A key reason is probably the price of a new Mac, another that time and OS upgrades generally don't make a Mac much slower (the exception being Lion). Many Windows PCs are simply thrown away because it's cheaper for a non-techie to buy a new one than to reinstall the OS an all their apps.
  - pyre 14y ago
    In the early 2000's, I knew a number of people that would upgrade every cycle or so by reselling their old Mac and buying the shiny new one.

InclinedPlane 14y ago

Inflection points and mind share. Microsoft no longer has the mind share of either the public or the development community. The "cool kids" tend not to develop on MS platforms these days by choice. Look at Jeff Atwood, he was a prominant asp.net mvc dev (stackoverflow) and he has chosen to use rails for his next project (discourse). This trend is all the more troublesome because C# is really a fanstastic language. But the downsides of being tied to the Windows/MSSQL/IIS platform is like have a boat anchor around your ankle. Similarly, how many people are excited about windows 8 vs. iOS or android? Also, look at Microsoft's big pushes, bing and winphone 7+. Both have been at best partial successes, and they need more than that for a company their size. The exact moment in time that is the biggest problem for a company facing potential decline like Microsoft is not when they have ceded the majority of marketshare to a competitor, nor is it when their revenues and marketshare being to contract. The key moment is the inflection point in their growth rate, when the 2nd derivative turns from positive to negative. That's the point where if nothing is done then eventually the peak will be reached and decline will set in. That's the point where there is still the opportunity to turn things around, it's the point where the resources are still available and the least work needs to be done to make a change.

danabramov 14y ago
>C# is really a fanstastic language. But the downsides of being tied to the Windows/MSSQL/IIS platform is like have a boat anchor around your ankle. Similarly, how many people are excited about windows 8 vs. iOS or android? Great times for Xamarin.
- wsc981 14y ago
  As an iOS developer, I'm interested in Windows Phone. In my past I programmed a bit with the .NET API's (mainly VB, later on a little bit of C#). I've recently dabbled in Android, and personally I don't like the tooling (Eclipse, emulator slow). Just last week I downloaded the MonoTouch toolkit and will experiment a bit with creating a multi-platform (iOS / Android) app with a partially shared codebase in C#. So far I like the following things about the MonoTouch toolkit: a) UIKit methods / classes are called more or less the same. Don't need to look up the API much. b) from what I understand, it should be possible to create my own wrappers around Obj-C (iOS) or Java (Android) objects. c) Create optimised user interfaces for each platform. This is the part where the code will differ mostly. d) MonoDevelop is a nice, though somewhat sparse / limited IDE. I really hate the future creep of Eclipse and imo Visual Studio could also use a little trimming in the UI - otherwise a fine product though. I love Xcode.

cabalamat 14y ago

> I don't see where this whole "Windows is becoming less ubiquitous"is coming from. In 2012Q3, 122 million Android devices were sold http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sales-up-47-percent-as-android-increases-its-lead/ http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57549482-94/smartphone-sale... Over the same time period, about 75 million PCs and laptops were sold, mostly running Windows. Android is already beating Windows in terms of rate at which devices are shipped running it. If people start using Android devices for more stuff, and consequently use Windows devices less, Microsoft is in big trouble.

shanelja 14y ago
But the issue here is that you are comparing fundamentally different pieces of technology, and yes, yes, a smart phone is a computer too, but I don't see anyone using them for general purpose computing right now and to be honest, I don't see it any time in the future. Go in to any office, literally, any office, and you won't find anyone working on an iPad or their Samsung Galaxy, they will be working on a PC or a laptop, most likely running Windows and for the most part they are happy with it. Comparing the sales of Windows against the sales of Android is like comparing the sales of Toasters against the sales of Microwaves, sure, they might be at some level similar appliances but they are used for completely different reasons. A smartphone is used for consumption, it is a luxury most people have or aspire to have and while the PC or Laptop may fall in to that department at home, in the office, they are used for creation (except from when we are bored of course...) and for the foreseeable future, that's how things will remain until the space is completely "disrupted" (whatever that means.) I'm going to put it like this, I don't live in Silicone Valley, I live in a small town in the north of the UK, and every person I know and who's house I have been to. Every single one has both a smart phone and a PC, that's not just me saying it, that's every single person. The reason why the numbers are so different is something crucial and so simple that we always seem to overlook it: Normal people[1] only need one computer for their home and they share it, but they want to be in contact with their family via phones at all times, and the kids these days don't want a Nokia 3310, they want the newest, most expensive model, because they are COOL. You can attribute it to whatever merely visible swing in the market you want to, but that is the simple truth. [1] - By which I mean people who aren't in the tech industry.

Spooky23 14y ago

They do, but large companies are no longer investing in the Wintel PC + Windows. Windows 8 trepedation will put the nail in the coffin, as Enterprise IT is afraid of Windows 8, and the key new PC form factors (Ultrabook, Tablet) are going to require it. So companies are looking at landing Windows 7 in Citrix and VMWare VDI environments. This is scary for Microsoft, as both companies are looking at breaking up the Windows platform into layers, and injecting their own platform tools. Microsoft needs a landing place for Office that isn't completely controlled by VMWare/Citrix, which is the true cash cow now that the OS is becoming commoditized. So they are finally investing in VDI with Server 2012, and supporting Office via HTTP and alternate platforms. If you think about 1983 vs. 2013, VDI is the green screen, and tablets are the PCs.

ConceptJunkie 14y ago

I think the parent has a point. The thing that would stop 90% of business users from being able to use Linux is Microsoft Office. In the past several years, I've come to believe that Office is a much more potent monopoly than Windows itself. Of course, I also think Office is a blight on the software world and the sooner it dies, the better for everyone, but that's another topic. The fact is, Microsoft can only maintain the status quo (and this has been true for the better part of two decades) by milking their monopoly so it makes great business sense to get Office on as many platforms as possible. I imagine this wouldn't be happening if Android weren't around, but this move would allow a lot of people to migrate to Linux and remain with Microsoft Office, and I suspect that's exactly what will happen for a lot of folks. Let's face it. No one wants Windows 8, and a lot of people would choose an alternative but the elephant in the room has always been Office. I'm all for supporting competitors to Office, but they will continue to fight an uphill battle against an entrenched and corrupt foe who does everything in its power to undermine competition, DoJ notwithstanding. Given that people are not so much abandoning Windows for other choices on the desktop, but many are abandoning the desktop itself - Windows is essentially non-existent in the mobile market and its success in the tablet realm remains to be seen - this is another reason Microsoft should make this move.