5 ms·

Apple's churning of the gut

37 points by eliajf 14y ago

ronnier 14y ago
>What interests me more is why does this stuff keep happening in Apple’s name? It's very similar to politics. Apple are the Republicans of tech in that every minor story is major news, all dirty laundry aired by journalists, bloggers, and tweets, and mockery where possible.
- vor_ 14y ago
  Strange analogy. That happens for all politicians regardless of party. Example: Anthony Weiner
chucknelson 14y ago
The author forgets one other factor that has become significant: the death of Steve Jobs. So it's the "law or large numbers" and the "doomed without Steve" arguments that impact the news of Apple these days, but hopefully some of that will fade with time.
- technoslut 14y ago
  AAPL has seen serious fluctuations during the Jobs era as well when everyone thought he was healthy. The day that Jobs showed off the iPad the stock had a serious drop as well. The same goes for the day he shoed off the Macbook Air as well. In fact, Apple has better The Streets for most of the past six years.
technoslut 14y ago
This article is the opposite of what I think it should be. >I think the right answer is that Apple just fails to pass the gut test for most people. This is no surprise. Apple holds no significant monopoly so AAPL is volatile. The stock is ripe for manipulation with a P/E that is far lower than many other tech companies while almost one-third of the company's value is in cash on hand. The bigger issue for me is why this story has been so well covered by Daring Fireball, The Loop, MG Siegler and the rest of the Apple blogosphere? Do they really believe that they will affect general opinion of the stock or force an investigation? What screams out to me is that this is about favoritismm but coming from intelligent people whom can deny it in a way that sounds reasonable to the average person.
- ceejayoz 14y ago
  > The bigger issue for me is why this story has been so well covered by Daring Fireball, The Loop, MG Siegler and the rest of the Apple blogosphere? Do they really believe that they will affect general opinion of the stock or force an investigation? You're surprised that bloggers who blog about Apple are blogging about Apple? What's the issue here, again?
  - technoslut 14y ago
    No, it's one thing to talk about technology. It's another to mount a campaign about how the WSJ got the story wrong about stock prices when it will all be settled within a few days. There are other issues that exist at Apple which are far more important. I could say the same for any tech company but I expect more from those who pretended to be above it all.
    - ceejayoz 14y ago
      > No, it's one thing to talk about technology. It's another to mount a campaign about how the WSJ got the story wrong about stock prices when it will all be settled within a few days. Daring Fireball isn't a technology blog, it's an Apple blog. Apple's stock price is entirely relevant. > There are other issues that exist at Apple which are far more important. Are these issues being ignored? These bloggers tend to post more than once a day on a variety of Apple-related topics. > I could say the same for any tech company but I expect more from those who pretended to be above it all. When have folks like Gruber ever pretended to be above covering Apple news and stock prices?
jsnell 14y ago
You're stating as fact that this kind of reporting happens to Apple and not to other tech companies. But that has hardly been established. I often see dubious news stories about several of the companies on your list, and back and forth discussion about those stories. So I'd add a fifth explanation: You're seeing lots of these stories because you're following people who blog about Apple. If you're bored of bogus Apple controversies and want to see fewer of them, just stop reading the blogs of Apple pundits.
- w0utert 14y ago
  >> So I'd add a fifth explanation: You're seeing lots of these stories because you're following people who blog about Apple. Is this your gut saying it can't possibly be true that Apple attracts lots of negative press mainly because it has been King of the Hill for so long, when it comes to fat profit margins and popularity? I couldn't disagree with you more. Sure enough other companies get unjustified bad press every now and then, but you have to be blind to deny the fact that each and every website, even if it's only remotely related to technology, appears to be populated with people who can't resist the urge to slam Apple for whatever is the popular Apple-fail-du-jour. It's not unlike the 90', when Microsoft was in the position that Apple is now. No matter what they did, it was bad, evil, anti-competitive, it sucked, they stole the idea, whatever. I'm was guilty of irrational Microsoft hate myself back then. Today, people almost feel pity for poor Microsoft, finally trying to innovate in the smartphone and tablet space, but failing spectacularly to attract people to their platform. There's really nothing surprising here. In dutch, we have this saying that goes along the lines of 'higher trees catch most of the wind'. I think it has something to do with human nature. People envy success, especially when they don't understand it. Combined with a tendency to herd around the popular opinion, it's not hard to see how successful companies attract most of the bad press. In the last few years I've seen some of the most nonsensical arguments against Apple products you couldn't even make up yourself, almost go viral on the internet. At some point in time some other company will take Apple's place as the big evil technology corporation that can't do anything right. Facebook would be a pretty obvious candidate, the moment they start getting more successful at monetizing their service, I predict they will become the centre of attention for haters and trolls.
addlepate 14y ago
An interesting argument. I've thought for years that the reason why this stuff happens with Apple and nowhere else is their vaunted secrecy. Nobody else clams up like Apple does, which leaves a void for tech-press dummies to gleefully fill up with whatever silly shit they invent, which of course is exactly what they do. But more generally, Apple is different from any other company near its size. The secrecy is one big difference, but there are others such as their approach to product development. These fundamental differences cause cognitive dissonance in the people the article talks about. These people are taught to think that Apple products are the same as what everyone else makes, just better-marketed and way more expensive, therefore Apple customers are status-seekers, not rational consumers. But Apple's incredible success makes it difficult to seriously hold that viewpoint anymore. You could think that when Apple's customer base was a handful of people who worked in movies and graphic design, but not anymore.
cooldeal 14y ago
>What interests me more is why does this stuff keep happening in Apple’s name? No one comes out and says this crap about Samsung, Google, Nokia, RIM, Microsoft or any other big name in technology. It’s all Apple, all the time. Err what? I've seen this happen to every company on that list. For example, lets take Nokia. Three months after launching the Lumia 900, they discounted the price on contract at AT&T from $99 to $49. This led to a huge cacophony all over the internet with a lot of publications reporting "Nokia discounts phone by half", totally ignoring the fact that it was on contract price, so the price discount was closer to 10% and was totally normal. There was no such hype when other Samsung, HTC etc. phones were dropped in price as part of the normal pricing cycle of such phones. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/telecoms/9402618/Nokia-cuts-Lumia-900-price-in-half-just-three-months-after-launch.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnol... Nokia, RIM and Microsoft are some of the most beat down companies in analysis and news. The "news" is universally junk and has more to do with attention grabbing headlines and flamebait, regardless of the companies involved. I think the author is suffering from a huge selection bias.
- seanalltogether 14y ago
  Given the age of the blogger, I'm kinda surprised he so easily dismisses all those years of M$ bashing in the press.
bparsons 14y ago
The only option that the author doesn't explore, is the possibility that the WSJ author may be correct in saying that the more robust Android ecosystem is gobbling up market share.
- ajross 14y ago
  Or even more blandly: Apple overshot estimates for the holidays and has stock on hand they have to sell. There doesn't need to be any "falling off a cliff" or "gobbling up" to explain this. Orders in the just-in-time manufacturing world have always been volatile. That they haven't for Apple is simply because of Apple's extremely rapid growth. Extremely rapid growth isn't sustainable long term. And they're finally leveling off.
tatsuke95 14y ago
>" There is no way, the gut tells folks, that Apple can continue growing at the current rate. There’s no way! " Apple's stock price was on a parabolic growth trend. Sure, this time could be different, but history says that such growth is unsustainable. Combine that with the "intangibles" (Jobs' death) and the recent price correction isn't shocking. Why is every movement in Apple news? Because it's one of the planet's most recognizable brands and biggest companies. Those are things that make news.
PaulHoule 14y ago
So far as the stock value is concerned, Apple's peak stock value assumed a continued high rate of growth. I don't know if that's possible. In the last few years, Apple dominated (practically created) two product categories: digital music players and smartphones. If Apple is going to keep growing like this it needs something bigger than the iPhone. What's it gonna be? An iTV? An iCar, a complete line of iKitchen appliances? A Buckminister Fuller-style iHouse? I just don't see how they can find an opportunity like that without losing focus.
- mikeash 14y ago
  Did it assume growth, though? Even at its peak, their P/E ratio was similar to companies like Microsoft, GE, and IBM. If they just sustained their current profitability they'd still be well worth the peak price and more. One can certainly make arguments about whether they can even sustain, but that peak price didn't require continuing levels of growth similar to the 2007-2012 period.
mcantelon 14y ago
>Apple was the underdog for so long and now that it is one of the biggest and most successful companies in the world, well, we can’t root for them anymore. Uh... I think the patent abuse, App Store censorship, and attempting to normalize a paradigm where one needs the hardware vendor's permission to run software have something to do with antipathy towards Apple.
dannyr 14y ago
It goes both ways. Until recently, there were an avalanche of positive stories about Apple. Some of it are overstated. What did the author think of too much positive news about Apple back then? He's only reacting now because it's negative.
cmsj 14y ago
blogger complains about linkbait apple stories in a linkbait apple story :)
Tycho 14y ago
This thought just occurred to me. Most companies in the world, the people who care about mundane reports on the company are a subset of the people who own shares in them. With Apple, it's the other way about - the share owners are a small subset of the people who care about these news reports.

37 points by eliajf 14y ago

>What interests me more is why does this stuff keep happening in Apple’s name? It's very similar to politics. Apple are the Republicans of tech in that every minor story is major news, all dirty laundry aired by journalists, bloggers, and tweets, and mockery where possible.

vor_ 14y ago
Strange analogy. That happens for all politicians regardless of party. Example: Anthony Weiner

chucknelson 14y ago

The author forgets one other factor that has become significant: the death of Steve Jobs. So it's the "law or large numbers" and the "doomed without Steve" arguments that impact the news of Apple these days, but hopefully some of that will fade with time.

technoslut 14y ago
AAPL has seen serious fluctuations during the Jobs era as well when everyone thought he was healthy. The day that Jobs showed off the iPad the stock had a serious drop as well. The same goes for the day he shoed off the Macbook Air as well. In fact, Apple has better The Streets for most of the past six years.

technoslut 14y ago

This article is the opposite of what I think it should be. >I think the right answer is that Apple just fails to pass the gut test for most people. This is no surprise. Apple holds no significant monopoly so AAPL is volatile. The stock is ripe for manipulation with a P/E that is far lower than many other tech companies while almost one-third of the company's value is in cash on hand. The bigger issue for me is why this story has been so well covered by Daring Fireball, The Loop, MG Siegler and the rest of the Apple blogosphere? Do they really believe that they will affect general opinion of the stock or force an investigation? What screams out to me is that this is about favoritismm but coming from intelligent people whom can deny it in a way that sounds reasonable to the average person.

ceejayoz 14y ago
> The bigger issue for me is why this story has been so well covered by Daring Fireball, The Loop, MG Siegler and the rest of the Apple blogosphere? Do they really believe that they will affect general opinion of the stock or force an investigation? You're surprised that bloggers who blog about Apple are blogging about Apple? What's the issue here, again?
- technoslut 14y ago
  No, it's one thing to talk about technology. It's another to mount a campaign about how the WSJ got the story wrong about stock prices when it will all be settled within a few days. There are other issues that exist at Apple which are far more important. I could say the same for any tech company but I expect more from those who pretended to be above it all.
  - ceejayoz 14y ago
    > No, it's one thing to talk about technology. It's another to mount a campaign about how the WSJ got the story wrong about stock prices when it will all be settled within a few days. Daring Fireball isn't a technology blog, it's an Apple blog. Apple's stock price is entirely relevant. > There are other issues that exist at Apple which are far more important. Are these issues being ignored? These bloggers tend to post more than once a day on a variety of Apple-related topics. > I could say the same for any tech company but I expect more from those who pretended to be above it all. When have folks like Gruber ever pretended to be above covering Apple news and stock prices?

jsnell 14y ago

You're stating as fact that this kind of reporting happens to Apple and not to other tech companies. But that has hardly been established. I often see dubious news stories about several of the companies on your list, and back and forth discussion about those stories. So I'd add a fifth explanation: You're seeing lots of these stories because you're following people who blog about Apple. If you're bored of bogus Apple controversies and want to see fewer of them, just stop reading the blogs of Apple pundits.

w0utert 14y ago
>> So I'd add a fifth explanation: You're seeing lots of these stories because you're following people who blog about Apple. Is this your gut saying it can't possibly be true that Apple attracts lots of negative press mainly because it has been King of the Hill for so long, when it comes to fat profit margins and popularity? I couldn't disagree with you more. Sure enough other companies get unjustified bad press every now and then, but you have to be blind to deny the fact that each and every website, even if it's only remotely related to technology, appears to be populated with people who can't resist the urge to slam Apple for whatever is the popular Apple-fail-du-jour. It's not unlike the 90', when Microsoft was in the position that Apple is now. No matter what they did, it was bad, evil, anti-competitive, it sucked, they stole the idea, whatever. I'm was guilty of irrational Microsoft hate myself back then. Today, people almost feel pity for poor Microsoft, finally trying to innovate in the smartphone and tablet space, but failing spectacularly to attract people to their platform. There's really nothing surprising here. In dutch, we have this saying that goes along the lines of 'higher trees catch most of the wind'. I think it has something to do with human nature. People envy success, especially when they don't understand it. Combined with a tendency to herd around the popular opinion, it's not hard to see how successful companies attract most of the bad press. In the last few years I've seen some of the most nonsensical arguments against Apple products you couldn't even make up yourself, almost go viral on the internet. At some point in time some other company will take Apple's place as the big evil technology corporation that can't do anything right. Facebook would be a pretty obvious candidate, the moment they start getting more successful at monetizing their service, I predict they will become the centre of attention for haters and trolls.

addlepate 14y ago

An interesting argument. I've thought for years that the reason why this stuff happens with Apple and nowhere else is their vaunted secrecy. Nobody else clams up like Apple does, which leaves a void for tech-press dummies to gleefully fill up with whatever silly shit they invent, which of course is exactly what they do. But more generally, Apple is different from any other company near its size. The secrecy is one big difference, but there are others such as their approach to product development. These fundamental differences cause cognitive dissonance in the people the article talks about. These people are taught to think that Apple products are the same as what everyone else makes, just better-marketed and way more expensive, therefore Apple customers are status-seekers, not rational consumers. But Apple's incredible success makes it difficult to seriously hold that viewpoint anymore. You could think that when Apple's customer base was a handful of people who worked in movies and graphic design, but not anymore.

cooldeal 14y ago

>What interests me more is why does this stuff keep happening in Apple’s name? No one comes out and says this crap about Samsung, Google, Nokia, RIM, Microsoft or any other big name in technology. It’s all Apple, all the time. Err what? I've seen this happen to every company on that list. For example, lets take Nokia. Three months after launching the Lumia 900, they discounted the price on contract at AT&T from $99 to $49. This led to a huge cacophony all over the internet with a lot of publications reporting "Nokia discounts phone by half", totally ignoring the fact that it was on contract price, so the price discount was closer to 10% and was totally normal. There was no such hype when other Samsung, HTC etc. phones were dropped in price as part of the normal pricing cycle of such phones. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/telecoms/9402618/Nokia-cuts-Lumia-900-price-in-half-just-three-months-after-launch.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnol... Nokia, RIM and Microsoft are some of the most beat down companies in analysis and news. The "news" is universally junk and has more to do with attention grabbing headlines and flamebait, regardless of the companies involved. I think the author is suffering from a huge selection bias.

seanalltogether 14y ago
Given the age of the blogger, I'm kinda surprised he so easily dismisses all those years of M$ bashing in the press.

bparsons 14y ago

The only option that the author doesn't explore, is the possibility that the WSJ author may be correct in saying that the more robust Android ecosystem is gobbling up market share.

ajross 14y ago
Or even more blandly: Apple overshot estimates for the holidays and has stock on hand they have to sell. There doesn't need to be any "falling off a cliff" or "gobbling up" to explain this. Orders in the just-in-time manufacturing world have always been volatile. That they haven't for Apple is simply because of Apple's extremely rapid growth. Extremely rapid growth isn't sustainable long term. And they're finally leveling off.

tatsuke95 14y ago

>" There is no way, the gut tells folks, that Apple can continue growing at the current rate. There’s no way! " Apple's stock price was on a parabolic growth trend. Sure, this time could be different, but history says that such growth is unsustainable. Combine that with the "intangibles" (Jobs' death) and the recent price correction isn't shocking. Why is every movement in Apple news? Because it's one of the planet's most recognizable brands and biggest companies. Those are things that make news.

PaulHoule 14y ago

So far as the stock value is concerned, Apple's peak stock value assumed a continued high rate of growth. I don't know if that's possible. In the last few years, Apple dominated (practically created) two product categories: digital music players and smartphones. If Apple is going to keep growing like this it needs something bigger than the iPhone. What's it gonna be? An iTV? An iCar, a complete line of iKitchen appliances? A Buckminister Fuller-style iHouse? I just don't see how they can find an opportunity like that without losing focus.

mikeash 14y ago
Did it assume growth, though? Even at its peak, their P/E ratio was similar to companies like Microsoft, GE, and IBM. If they just sustained their current profitability they'd still be well worth the peak price and more. One can certainly make arguments about whether they can even sustain, but that peak price didn't require continuing levels of growth similar to the 2007-2012 period.

mcantelon 14y ago

>Apple was the underdog for so long and now that it is one of the biggest and most successful companies in the world, well, we can’t root for them anymore. Uh... I think the patent abuse, App Store censorship, and attempting to normalize a paradigm where one needs the hardware vendor's permission to run software have something to do with antipathy towards Apple.

dannyr 14y ago

It goes both ways. Until recently, there were an avalanche of positive stories about Apple. Some of it are overstated. What did the author think of too much positive news about Apple back then? He's only reacting now because it's negative.

cmsj 14y ago

blogger complains about linkbait apple stories in a linkbait apple story :)

Tycho 14y ago

This thought just occurred to me. Most companies in the world, the people who care about mundane reports on the company are a subset of the people who own shares in them. With Apple, it's the other way about - the share owners are a small subset of the people who care about these news reports.