5 ms·

That people are no longer purchasing new computers every two years sounds very likely, but I think Microsoft (though not their partners) has realised this alrea

by Zirro 14y ago

That people are no longer purchasing new computers every two years sounds very likely, but I think Microsoft (though not their partners) has realised this already. That's why they've been pushing the new "design language" so hard, to the point of including it on non-tablets where it (arguably) doesn't belong. At least among the people around me, the money which would previously be spent on a new computer is used to buy a tablet (mainly iPad) instead. While I'm not sure if the way Microsoft is approaching the tablet-market is right, I don't think they're wrong if they're betting on tablets overtaking desktop/laptop computers in a not so distant future.

CamperBob2 14y ago
I don't think they're wrong if they're betting on tablets overtaking desktop/laptop computers in a not so distant future. Sigh. Yes, when that future includes cerebral neuroimplants, tablets will replace desktop PCs. Until then, that's as ridiculous a notion as believing that tractors will replace steam shovels, or that motorcycles will replace cars. Touchscreens, and by extension tablets, are not useful for desktop computing. It ranges from amusing to mildly annoying when people in online comment threads believe otherwise, but it's a cause for full-blown market panic when Microsoft executives believe otherwise.
- Zirro 14y ago
  "Touchscreens, and by extension tablets, are not useful for desktop computing. It ranges from amusing to mildly annoying when people in online comment threads believe otherwise..." I can't tell for sure if it's what you are implying, but I don't believe tablets comes close to replacing desktop computers in terms of functionality, nor do I think they should be used for "desktop computing". However, I believe they have the potential to cover the needs of most people. Saying that tablet-sales will overtake other kinds of devices, and saying that tablets are fully capable of replacing such devices are very different things.
  - CamperBob2 14y ago
    True, I think I see where you're coming from, in that your use of "overtaking" wasn't synonymous with "replacing." I'm mostly making fun of the Windows 8 school of thought that argues that tablet and desktop usage patterns are similar enough to warrant a one-size-fits-all GUI. I think tablets are a threat to a large portion of the laptop PC market, but laptops have already replaced desktops in most applications that can benefit from portability. If someone is using a desktop, chances are they need a desktop, running an OS that's well-suited to it.
    - Zirro 14y ago
      I can see that my usage of "overtaking" was quite ambiguous, sorry about that. I also realise that I may have come off as positive to the path Microsoft is heading with Windows 8. This is not the case, as I do not think the "Metro"-style UI belongs on a desktop computer or that desktop computers should be used the same way you use a tablet. With that said, you make a good point about laptops and I should probably not consider them to be equally threatened in this situation, the way I did in my first post.
  - ams6110 14y ago
    Yes. Large numbers of home users use their PC for email, Facebook, browsing/shopping, and maybe skype/Facetime. Tablets are perfectly good for that and easy to use while sitting on the couch. Those users are likely never again buying a standard desktop or laptop.
    - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
      Kids will grow up on iPads and might...perhaps...graduate to macbooks when they go off to college. Then they'll use a PC at work and come home at night to their tablets/devices... Alas, there will be no one to program these PCs/devices in the future because kids won't grow up with code capable environments (well, maybe they'll be able to code on the web ala Kahn's academy).
- rayiner 14y ago
  No, it's more like Chinese manufacturing replacing American manufacturing. Yes, we still build a lot of sophisticated stuff here, but we build simple things like garments in China and those jobs aren't coming back. We don't even really produce less than we used to, but it's not a growth industry even though it grew hugely in the last 30 years because all that growth was captured by China. A tablet (maybe with a keyboard dock) can replace PC's for a huge amount of the type of work people used to do on home PC's. E-mail, surfing the net, movies, music, chat, photos, typing up school papers etc, are all that is needed by a large portion of computer users. People are still going to have their work PC's, but the size of that industry is going to shrink relative to the overall market for personal computing devices.
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by Zirro 14y ago

CamperBob2 14y ago

I don't think they're wrong if they're betting on tablets overtaking desktop/laptop computers in a not so distant future. Sigh. Yes, when that future includes cerebral neuroimplants, tablets will replace desktop PCs. Until then, that's as ridiculous a notion as believing that tractors will replace steam shovels, or that motorcycles will replace cars. Touchscreens, and by extension tablets, are not useful for desktop computing. It ranges from amusing to mildly annoying when people in online comment threads believe otherwise, but it's a cause for full-blown market panic when Microsoft executives believe otherwise.

Zirro 14y ago
"Touchscreens, and by extension tablets, are not useful for desktop computing. It ranges from amusing to mildly annoying when people in online comment threads believe otherwise..." I can't tell for sure if it's what you are implying, but I don't believe tablets comes close to replacing desktop computers in terms of functionality, nor do I think they should be used for "desktop computing". However, I believe they have the potential to cover the needs of most people. Saying that tablet-sales will overtake other kinds of devices, and saying that tablets are fully capable of replacing such devices are very different things.
- CamperBob2 14y ago
  True, I think I see where you're coming from, in that your use of "overtaking" wasn't synonymous with "replacing." I'm mostly making fun of the Windows 8 school of thought that argues that tablet and desktop usage patterns are similar enough to warrant a one-size-fits-all GUI. I think tablets are a threat to a large portion of the laptop PC market, but laptops have already replaced desktops in most applications that can benefit from portability. If someone is using a desktop, chances are they need a desktop, running an OS that's well-suited to it.
  - Zirro 14y ago
    I can see that my usage of "overtaking" was quite ambiguous, sorry about that. I also realise that I may have come off as positive to the path Microsoft is heading with Windows 8. This is not the case, as I do not think the "Metro"-style UI belongs on a desktop computer or that desktop computers should be used the same way you use a tablet. With that said, you make a good point about laptops and I should probably not consider them to be equally threatened in this situation, the way I did in my first post.
- ams6110 14y ago
  Yes. Large numbers of home users use their PC for email, Facebook, browsing/shopping, and maybe skype/Facetime. Tablets are perfectly good for that and easy to use while sitting on the couch. Those users are likely never again buying a standard desktop or laptop.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    Kids will grow up on iPads and might...perhaps...graduate to macbooks when they go off to college. Then they'll use a PC at work and come home at night to their tablets/devices... Alas, there will be no one to program these PCs/devices in the future because kids won't grow up with code capable environments (well, maybe they'll be able to code on the web ala Kahn's academy).
rayiner 14y ago
No, it's more like Chinese manufacturing replacing American manufacturing. Yes, we still build a lot of sophisticated stuff here, but we build simple things like garments in China and those jobs aren't coming back. We don't even really produce less than we used to, but it's not a growth industry even though it grew hugely in the last 30 years because all that growth was captured by China. A tablet (maybe with a keyboard dock) can replace PC's for a huge amount of the type of work people used to do on home PC's. E-mail, surfing the net, movies, music, chat, photos, typing up school papers etc, are all that is needed by a large portion of computer users. People are still going to have their work PC's, but the size of that industry is going to shrink relative to the overall market for personal computing devices.

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