My view on this: >>SpaceX, meanwhile, trades at 16 times that year’s revenue. Take that as the benchmark — they are both companies with wild aspirations and ch

My view on this: >>SpaceX, meanwhile, trades at 16 times that year’s revenue. Take that as the benchmark — they are both companies with wild aspirations and charismatic leaders — and Anthropic could in future be worth $5tn. SpaceX has a humongous moat in significant part of their business: launch and Starlink. They are so far ahead other players barely register. There are a lot of options connected to that moat. They also are good at building things fast and already have good infrastructure and are in position to build more. This is not the case at all with Anthropic. Anthropic is very slightly ahead right now and some of their competitors have structural edges that are hard to overcome. For example Google has data and infra, SpaceX has infra an some unique data, Meta has a lot of data, infra and a cash machine to finance it all and operate at loss as long as they please. That I think is the biggest problem for Anthropic. There is very little moat and competition is already close and very motivated to catch-up. If I had to bet they will find buyers at 2T. Very liquid prediction markets are at 2.2T right now. I think they face uphill battle to justify that valuation even if AI sector continue to grow fast though.