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> It's going to happen very soon Why? You can't just assert it. There are very good reasons to think it won't happen soon, and you've given no reasons to think

• dwedge 6d ago
  You asserted that it was never going to happen first
  • geysersam 6d ago
    But he gave a reason for that. "Before that happens the frontier will move". Why do you think it will happen anyway? Do you think the frontier will not move fast enough that local models are unable to catch up, or do you think people will prefer local models at a point. Or something else?
• blurbleblurble 6d ago
  Because everything is converging on a backlog of huge efficiency gains established in research, waiting to be combined. Looped transformers, a whole host of diffusion techniques and new quantization techniques, maturation of ternary distillation and new ways to separate logic from stuff that can be looked up. It would surprise me if most frontier models were actually even that big at that point in terms of active params. I highly doubt it.