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Stock analysts have a success rate of 47% or lower for directional predictions. That's worse than a coin flip. All AI has to do is product fair 50/50 results an

Stock analysts have a success rate of 47% or lower for directional predictions. That's worse than a coin flip. All AI has to do is product fair 50/50 results and it can beat analysts. But you can do it too for the price of a quarter.

polalavik 15d ago
“We’re right 50.75 percent of the time… but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time. You can make billions that way.” - Robert Mercer, the former co-CEO of Renaissance Technologies
- pinkmuffinere 15d ago
  lol this is a great quote, it's like a couplet from a standup set. It's humorous, unexpected, on closer reading it's possibly true, and then you see the source and immediately realize it must be correct. Any article you'd recommend about Renaissance? I've always been curious but not curious enough to read "just anything"
  - greeneggs 15d ago
    This is a pretty good article on Mercer and Renaissance: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-hedge-fund-tycoon-behind-the-trump-presidency https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-... https://archive.ph/8Iuyh https://archive.ph/8Iuyh > Magerman told me, “Bob believes that human beings have no inherent value other than how much money they make. A cat has value, he’s said, because it provides pleasure to humans. But if someone is on welfare they have negative value. If he earns a thousand times more than a schoolteacher, then he’s a thousand times more valuable.” Magerman added, “He thinks society is upside down—that government helps the weak people get strong, and makes the strong people weak by taking their money away, through taxes.” … Another former high-level Renaissance employee said, “Bob thinks the less government the better. He’s happy if people don’t trust the government. And if the President’s a bozo? He’s fine with that. He wants it to all fall down.”
    - dTal 14d ago
      People are scared of inhuman AIs taking over but maybe they should be more scared of the inhuman humans who've already done so. How many of the world's billionaires are emotionally stunted misanthropes like this? What do we do when we find ourselves in a system where someone with no emotional intelligence, empathy, or interpersonal skills can make themselves a gigantic pile of cash by pushing buttons on a screen without ever having to interact with another human, and then decides to find a sense of purpose by hurling their wealth around according to some seriously misguided views? It seems obvious to me that a core component of the problem is the fungibility of money, which over time absorbs all other figures of merit and rolls them into one, called "power", which subverts any system designed to contain it.
szundi 15d ago
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tomjakubowski 15d ago
I don't think analyzing just the directional correctness is enough. Magnitudes shouldn't just be ignored. A trader can still make money even if more than half of their trades were wrong directionally, and can still lose money (or even go bankrupt) even if more than half of their trades were correct directionally.

polalavik 15d ago

“We’re right 50.75 percent of the time… but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time. You can make billions that way.” - Robert Mercer, the former co-CEO of Renaissance Technologies

pinkmuffinere 15d ago
lol this is a great quote, it's like a couplet from a standup set. It's humorous, unexpected, on closer reading it's possibly true, and then you see the source and immediately realize it must be correct. Any article you'd recommend about Renaissance? I've always been curious but not curious enough to read "just anything"
- greeneggs 15d ago
  This is a pretty good article on Mercer and Renaissance: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-hedge-fund-tycoon-behind-the-trump-presidency https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-... https://archive.ph/8Iuyh https://archive.ph/8Iuyh > Magerman told me, “Bob believes that human beings have no inherent value other than how much money they make. A cat has value, he’s said, because it provides pleasure to humans. But if someone is on welfare they have negative value. If he earns a thousand times more than a schoolteacher, then he’s a thousand times more valuable.” Magerman added, “He thinks society is upside down—that government helps the weak people get strong, and makes the strong people weak by taking their money away, through taxes.” … Another former high-level Renaissance employee said, “Bob thinks the less government the better. He’s happy if people don’t trust the government. And if the President’s a bozo? He’s fine with that. He wants it to all fall down.”
  - dTal 14d ago
    People are scared of inhuman AIs taking over but maybe they should be more scared of the inhuman humans who've already done so. How many of the world's billionaires are emotionally stunted misanthropes like this? What do we do when we find ourselves in a system where someone with no emotional intelligence, empathy, or interpersonal skills can make themselves a gigantic pile of cash by pushing buttons on a screen without ever having to interact with another human, and then decides to find a sense of purpose by hurling their wealth around according to some seriously misguided views? It seems obvious to me that a core component of the problem is the fungibility of money, which over time absorbs all other figures of merit and rolls them into one, called "power", which subverts any system designed to contain it.

szundi 15d ago

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tomjakubowski 15d ago

I don't think analyzing just the directional correctness is enough. Magnitudes shouldn't just be ignored. A trader can still make money even if more than half of their trades were wrong directionally, and can still lose money (or even go bankrupt) even if more than half of their trades were correct directionally.