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They aren't guessing heads or tails, they give odds for each event. It's more like eyeballing a thousand coins to guess how fair they are, and then flipping eac
by adleyjulian 18d ago
They aren't guessing heads or tails, they give odds for each event. It's more like eyeballing a thousand coins to guess how fair they are, and then flipping each one just once.
Some are weighted to be 99% heads, others are 10% heads etc.
You could have 1,000,000 people guess random percentages for each coin, but suppose 10 of the coins are weighted 100% heads. To guess within 25% of the true value for all 10 of those coins would be roughly 1 in a million.
So a lucky guy guesses within 25% for all 10, he'd have another 990 coins he's being judged on.