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While time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either. Obviously the best humans are better than average, b
by bpt3 15d ago
While time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either.
Obviously the best humans are better than average, but this isn't all that surprising to me?
- ddp26 15d agoRight. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too. We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.