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For statistical time series forecasting, yes. This is for judgment-based forecasting, a somewhat different problem. It often involves, e.g. estimating the proba
by tfehring 9d ago
For statistical time series forecasting, yes. This is for judgment-based forecasting, a somewhat different problem. It often involves, e.g. estimating the probabilities of one-off future events, which time series forecasting models aren’t suited for.
- bpt3 9d agoWhile time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either. Obviously the best humans are better than average, but this isn't all that surprising to me?
- ddp26 9d agoRight. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too. We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.