4 ms·

The other day in a Dutch geopolitics podcast (Boekestijn en de Wijk) it was mentioned that if there's one country that could be added to the EU "at the stroke o

by rapnie 12d ago

The other day in a Dutch geopolitics podcast (Boekestijn en de Wijk) it was mentioned that if there's one country that could be added to the EU "at the stroke of a pen", it would be Canada. In terms of state of the democracy, shared values, etc. And I agree with that perspective. But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it. It would be like a mirror image of Russia feeling encroached by NATO, but then in the Western hemisphere. And perhaps a red cloth invitation to the frothing bull(ies) of the Trump administration to invade their neighbor.

hardbass 12d ago
Then that means Canada must build overwhelming firepower clearly and mine the border to hell, build anti aircraft systems everywhere and take whatever steps needed to prevent and repel an unprovoked invasion, just like it is logical for Ukraine to do the same to protect itself from Russia.
- ocd 12d ago
  This seems to be what Canada and Europe want from each other. Both have interests in repelling other powers that deserve to have their economic and military capabilities weakened, and both seem to be able to help each other on expanding economic base, energy security, food supply, and resource availability/manufacturing capability with existing intellectual and trade property that will distance them from the US MIC.
WinstonSmith84 12d ago
The US-Iran war is very unpopular and it's not even that the US is winning it. Going against Canada would mean .. what? Having tanks roll in Toronto downtown? Assuming it would be a military success, which isn't guaranteed after what happens in Iran,that would be unpopular beyond anything we've seen. Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically.
- rapnie 12d ago
  > Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically. Trade wars and sanctions can get very nasty too. I don't know about Canada, but most of the EU runs on US Big Tech to name just one sensitive sector.
  - nolok 12d ago
    It's a two way street; sanction on big tech is also the big weapon the EU has against the US if need be and that we kept threatening but never activating. Which doesn't mean it's easy or won't hurt like hell, but this is a continent that just cut most of the gas cord lines in record times despite massive pain and cost, if it came down to it we would simply because if it comes down to this and we don't then we're done. Short time it would damage us pretty hard, but long term it would be another net loss for the US.
  - Tomte 12d ago
    America is a big importer of toilet paper from Canada. :-)
    - jjgreen 12d ago
      The UK could sell them Izal instead, they'll fold in months ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2we30p661o https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2we30p661o
      - Lio 12d ago
        How? They stopped making that stuff years ago. They whole point of that article is that it's a weird, curious thing from the past that doesn't exist any more.
  - Lio 12d ago
    > I don't know about Canada, but most of the EU runs on US Big Tech to name just one sensitive sector. That's true, right now. The way things are going though the EU is spurred to finally cut the cord with US Big Tech because of the security risk. It didn't used to be like that before Trump got into power. Trump is bad for business because he's an unreliable partner that's turning on his allies.
gizajob 12d ago
This “at the stroke of the pen” idea is fantastical. Actual Canadians would have next to no interest in this. Whole provinces of Canada don’t even want to be part of Canada so their appetite for having the EU parliament and Commission anywhere near them would be slim to none. Having 250million Europeans eligible to migrate to Canada would similarly be dead in the water even if a few people in Toronto and Quebec might warm to the idea of going the other way.
- ocd 12d ago
  This is not really true. It's an extreme fringe minority in Canada that is massively misrepresented in US media, and largely propagated by AI bots.
  - gizajob 12d ago
    Totally agree that it’s fringe. But joining the EU even as an associate member was on the lips of literally nobody in Canada until today.
    - Tomte 12d ago
      Months ago: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadians-support-becoming-member-european-union-nanos-poll/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadians-s...
    - defrost 12d ago
      It was the same way with Australia becoming eligible to enter the Eurovision Song Contest, .. and yet here we are today with that thoroughly normalised.
      - deleted 12d ago
        [deleted]
- rapnie 12d ago
  The context in the podcast was that EU was too picky in their reform criteria for inclusion for current candidates on the European continent, but that Canada as a modern country would sail past and pass the exam. The ease with which these experts concluded it would make sense for Canada to join struck me, because impact on geopolitical relationship with US was imho too easily overlooked. It is a sentiment I hear more often now, in the news.
nutjob2 12d ago
> But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it. That would be the icing on the cake.

by rapnie 12d ago

hardbass 12d ago

Then that means Canada must build overwhelming firepower clearly and mine the border to hell, build anti aircraft systems everywhere and take whatever steps needed to prevent and repel an unprovoked invasion, just like it is logical for Ukraine to do the same to protect itself from Russia.

ocd 12d ago
This seems to be what Canada and Europe want from each other. Both have interests in repelling other powers that deserve to have their economic and military capabilities weakened, and both seem to be able to help each other on expanding economic base, energy security, food supply, and resource availability/manufacturing capability with existing intellectual and trade property that will distance them from the US MIC.

WinstonSmith84 12d ago

The US-Iran war is very unpopular and it's not even that the US is winning it. Going against Canada would mean .. what? Having tanks roll in Toronto downtown? Assuming it would be a military success, which isn't guaranteed after what happens in Iran,that would be unpopular beyond anything we've seen. Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically.

rapnie 12d ago
> Tough words, that's the worse we may expect from the US gov realistically. Trade wars and sanctions can get very nasty too. I don't know about Canada, but most of the EU runs on US Big Tech to name just one sensitive sector.
- nolok 12d ago
  It's a two way street; sanction on big tech is also the big weapon the EU has against the US if need be and that we kept threatening but never activating. Which doesn't mean it's easy or won't hurt like hell, but this is a continent that just cut most of the gas cord lines in record times despite massive pain and cost, if it came down to it we would simply because if it comes down to this and we don't then we're done. Short time it would damage us pretty hard, but long term it would be another net loss for the US.
- Tomte 12d ago
  America is a big importer of toilet paper from Canada. :-)
  - jjgreen 12d ago
    The UK could sell them Izal instead, they'll fold in months ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2we30p661o https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2we30p661o
    - Lio 12d ago
      How? They stopped making that stuff years ago. They whole point of that article is that it's a weird, curious thing from the past that doesn't exist any more.
- Lio 12d ago
  > I don't know about Canada, but most of the EU runs on US Big Tech to name just one sensitive sector. That's true, right now. The way things are going though the EU is spurred to finally cut the cord with US Big Tech because of the security risk. It didn't used to be like that before Trump got into power. Trump is bad for business because he's an unreliable partner that's turning on his allies.

gizajob 12d ago

This “at the stroke of the pen” idea is fantastical. Actual Canadians would have next to no interest in this. Whole provinces of Canada don’t even want to be part of Canada so their appetite for having the EU parliament and Commission anywhere near them would be slim to none. Having 250million Europeans eligible to migrate to Canada would similarly be dead in the water even if a few people in Toronto and Quebec might warm to the idea of going the other way.

ocd 12d ago
This is not really true. It's an extreme fringe minority in Canada that is massively misrepresented in US media, and largely propagated by AI bots.
- gizajob 12d ago
  Totally agree that it’s fringe. But joining the EU even as an associate member was on the lips of literally nobody in Canada until today.
  - Tomte 12d ago
    Months ago: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadians-support-becoming-member-european-union-nanos-poll/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadians-s...
  - defrost 12d ago
    It was the same way with Australia becoming eligible to enter the Eurovision Song Contest, .. and yet here we are today with that thoroughly normalised.
    - deleted 12d ago
      [deleted]
rapnie 12d ago
The context in the podcast was that EU was too picky in their reform criteria for inclusion for current candidates on the European continent, but that Canada as a modern country would sail past and pass the exam. The ease with which these experts concluded it would make sense for Canada to join struck me, because impact on geopolitical relationship with US was imho too easily overlooked. It is a sentiment I hear more often now, in the news.

nutjob2 12d ago

> But at the same time I thought that if there's one way to get into conflict with the current US administration - who declared EU their only adversary in the US National Security Plan - this is it. That would be the icing on the cake.