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The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, w

by Fordec 17d ago

The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, will take three years to repair. Oil prices don't get "cheap" again this side of 2030. Not to mention that there is a bunch of Russian infrastructure that is still on the chopping block to be destroyed by Ukraine as that war continues. Which has the same time it takes to rebuild issues.

bix6 17d ago
Is that the timeline in general for any repairs in the region? 3 years?
- Fordec 16d ago
  When people have an incentive to build that fast and cut corners (which they will). Under normal circumstances dotting the i's and crossing they t's, it's 5 to 7 years. Remember, the US is temporarily running low on missiles because of how much explosives Trump dropped on Iran. They blew up a petrostate level of petroleum infrastructure to the tune of $58B in damages of specialized engineering, about 15% of the country's total GDP. If recreating that in a quarter was possible, everyone with a drop of oil under their toes would do it.
bluGill 17d ago
Iran infrastructure is a non-issue, they have been heavily sanctioned for years. The issue with Iran is they are stopping everybody else in the region from exporting oil.
- lordgilman 17d ago
  There is a global market for energy, a country X that would have bought from Iran but couldn't because of refinery damage has to buy it from someone else, pushing up the price at the margin for everyone.
- perks_12 17d ago
  Iran still exported, and the nations that bought will now buy where we buy as well.
- kabes 17d ago
  Iran was still selling oil to China and others. Those now have to buy somewhere else, so it does affect our prices.
- Ajedi32 17d ago
  That's the main issue, yes. But where was all that oil Iran was producing going before their infrastructure was destroyed? Are you claiming they only ever used it domestically and didn't export any of it? That seems unlikely.
- larkost 17d ago
  While they have been under heavy sanctions, they have largely gotten around this, for example by trading with China (who have just said they will not abide by our "unilateral sanctions"). So their oil has still been going to service global needs, and its lack will still have an effect (as will the missing Russian oil products). Oddly, since the Iranians (and Russians) have been selling their oil products at a discount, they were actually having the effect of holding down the price of petroleum prior to the war. No idea about how much in real terms, but...
  - bluGill 17d ago
    I wouldn't say largely, but yes the sanctions were never absolute. Enough to make Iran alone not a big issue.
toyg 17d ago
And it's not just Iran now: Saudi pipelines and facilities are being hit too. The longer this stupid war continues, the worse off everyone will get (well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess).
- toasty228 17d ago
  > well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess They should be sued by governments, they can only make more money if they artificially increase their margin, if they simply passed the cost down to the consumers they shouldn't have record profits
  - toyg 17d ago
    Even if they didn't react to the natural demand/offer dynamic, American refineries are processing 30-40% more volume than before; that means US oil companies are making money that someone else was making before.
- deleted 16d ago
  [deleted]
XorNot 17d ago
Russian infrastructure isn't affecting oil prices. The Russians are losing refineries, not oil fields. The Russian crude trade to countries like India pushes the price down globally, but limits Russian access to refined fuels and products. It also limits their ability to fund the war.
- bryanlarsen 17d ago
  Russian infrastructure losses are affecting global diesel prices, pushing up the cost of everything.
  - pbkompasz 17d ago
    Source?
    - bryanlarsen 17d ago
      Basic supply & demand. Russia has banned the export of gas & diesel, and is buying gas from India.
      - pbkompasz 15d ago
        That's not a source
    - toasty228 17d ago
      All the petrol processed in the world is consumed virtually on the spot, take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll create all kind of nasty side effects, now take down multiple major actors/transport roads and you get the current situation
      - XorNot 16d ago
        That's not a source. And it also directly contradicts your assertion. Petroleum products are refined and consumed near the point of use because they're not very shelf stable. Petrol is not shipped internationally in any significant quantity, neither is diesel for these reasons. Take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll have shortages locally but crude oil supplies will divert to other refining capacity and fall in price. Conversely take down crude oil supply...

by Fordec 17d ago

bix6 17d ago

Is that the timeline in general for any repairs in the region? 3 years?

Fordec 16d ago
When people have an incentive to build that fast and cut corners (which they will). Under normal circumstances dotting the i's and crossing they t's, it's 5 to 7 years. Remember, the US is temporarily running low on missiles because of how much explosives Trump dropped on Iran. They blew up a petrostate level of petroleum infrastructure to the tune of $58B in damages of specialized engineering, about 15% of the country's total GDP. If recreating that in a quarter was possible, everyone with a drop of oil under their toes would do it.

bluGill 17d ago

Iran infrastructure is a non-issue, they have been heavily sanctioned for years. The issue with Iran is they are stopping everybody else in the region from exporting oil.

lordgilman 17d ago
There is a global market for energy, a country X that would have bought from Iran but couldn't because of refinery damage has to buy it from someone else, pushing up the price at the margin for everyone.
perks_12 17d ago
Iran still exported, and the nations that bought will now buy where we buy as well.
kabes 17d ago
Iran was still selling oil to China and others. Those now have to buy somewhere else, so it does affect our prices.
Ajedi32 17d ago
That's the main issue, yes. But where was all that oil Iran was producing going before their infrastructure was destroyed? Are you claiming they only ever used it domestically and didn't export any of it? That seems unlikely.
larkost 17d ago
While they have been under heavy sanctions, they have largely gotten around this, for example by trading with China (who have just said they will not abide by our "unilateral sanctions"). So their oil has still been going to service global needs, and its lack will still have an effect (as will the missing Russian oil products). Oddly, since the Iranians (and Russians) have been selling their oil products at a discount, they were actually having the effect of holding down the price of petroleum prior to the war. No idea about how much in real terms, but...
- bluGill 17d ago
  I wouldn't say largely, but yes the sanctions were never absolute. Enough to make Iran alone not a big issue.

toyg 17d ago

And it's not just Iran now: Saudi pipelines and facilities are being hit too. The longer this stupid war continues, the worse off everyone will get (well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess).

toasty228 17d ago
> well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess They should be sued by governments, they can only make more money if they artificially increase their margin, if they simply passed the cost down to the consumers they shouldn't have record profits
- toyg 17d ago
  Even if they didn't react to the natural demand/offer dynamic, American refineries are processing 30-40% more volume than before; that means US oil companies are making money that someone else was making before.
deleted 16d ago
[deleted]

XorNot 17d ago

Russian infrastructure isn't affecting oil prices. The Russians are losing refineries, not oil fields. The Russian crude trade to countries like India pushes the price down globally, but limits Russian access to refined fuels and products. It also limits their ability to fund the war.

bryanlarsen 17d ago
Russian infrastructure losses are affecting global diesel prices, pushing up the cost of everything.
- pbkompasz 17d ago
  Source?
  - bryanlarsen 17d ago
    Basic supply & demand. Russia has banned the export of gas & diesel, and is buying gas from India.
    - pbkompasz 15d ago
      That's not a source
  - toasty228 17d ago
    All the petrol processed in the world is consumed virtually on the spot, take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll create all kind of nasty side effects, now take down multiple major actors/transport roads and you get the current situation
    - XorNot 16d ago
      That's not a source. And it also directly contradicts your assertion. Petroleum products are refined and consumed near the point of use because they're not very shelf stable. Petrol is not shipped internationally in any significant quantity, neither is diesel for these reasons. Take down any production capacity anywhere and you'll have shortages locally but crude oil supplies will divert to other refining capacity and fall in price. Conversely take down crude oil supply...