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They should just give up at this point, it's just embarrassing to watch. As PrimeTime said; these are the guys that invented the 'T' in 'GPT', that deployed th

They should just give up at this point, it's just embarrassing to watch. As PrimeTime said; these are the guys that invented the 'T' in 'GPT', that deployed their first TPU in 2015, that is using billions on AI - and they are beaten by 300 people startup named Moonshot AI even. People are going to write books about this complete fumble.

fileeditview 18d ago
And yet they might become one of the winners "in the end" because they have near infinite money and others have not. I will drink tea and watch the show.
- tonfa 18d ago
  > they have near infinite money and others have not Given the very high margins on inference, once volume is large enough the other can also start printing enough money.
password54321 18d ago
None of the startups are profitable. What exactly are they getting beaten at? My advice is to listen less to brainrot 'influencers' that optimise for engagement through sensationalism.
- bronlund 18d ago
  Intelligence. They have "unlimited" resources and has researched AI since the very beginning - PageRank is a form of AI even. And still, Gemini is behind Claude, GPT, Grok, Muse, GLM, Kimi and is maybe on par with DeepSeek? As I said, it is embarrassing.
  - Forgeties79 18d ago
    > Grok No one is behind grok. It literally has "be funny and irreverent when appropriate" (whatever the hell "when appropriate" means for them) baked into the system prompt. To me, that is all you need to know about how useful it is. No serious people use it and the numbers bear it out tbh. It has the smallest market share of the "big companies" for a reason - and it's by a very, very large margin (~2.5% last I checked).
  - deleted 18d ago
    [deleted]
  - password54321 18d ago
    If RSI is achievable, it will leapfrog everything produced so far and so it will make sense to focus on RSI instead of incremental improvements for your top model. Startups need investment and need to show progress. Google does not at the moment need to take lead in the current race.
    - Forgeties79 17d ago
      And yet they are burning through their famous cash on hand and taking on debt for data centers like everyone else.
  - no_carrier 17d ago
    Their Flash model is going head to head with the SOTA models. It's completely the opposite of embarrassing.
dude250711 18d ago
It makes Meta look not that bad.
mchusma 18d ago
Their live models have been and continue to be at the frontier. I like them a lot!
mattlondon 18d ago
Have you used Google search at all on the past few months? Every single search brings up a live chat prompt. They're serving fast AI to billions of users at huge scale everyday And they're making money doing it. Perhaps they don't have the best coding model right now (although 3.8 flash is arguably SOTA at some benchmarks), but is that the be-all and end-all of AI? Only coding matters?
- thereitgoes456 18d ago
  It’s so annoying that everyone just points to the Artificial Analysis index (or even worse, Epoch AI, where part of the score is how good the AI is at chess) as a proxy for “how good” the model is.
  - owebmaster 17d ago
    Most people talking about Gemini quality do so by experience.
    - verdverm 17d ago
      sounds vibes and bias laden
      - brazukadev 17d ago
        what's your solution? force people to use gemini until they like it? or hire them as googlers?
        verdverm 17d ago
        my approach is to not use closed weight models, I'm not trying to solve for how to get people to use gemini, quite the opposite actually
  - dbbk 18d ago
    At least AA have a dedicated speech model index, of which this is now the leader: https://artificialanalysis.ai/speech-to-speech https://artificialanalysis.ai/speech-to-speech
arw0n 18d ago
Strongly disagree with that take. Kimi K3 is a distilled model. I'm not saying that as a moral judgement, or to disparage the team behind it, but distilling and building on that is significantly easier and cheaper than building from the ground up. And Gemini is kinda good enough at everything. Never the top, but it is decent at every task, and it is much faster than Kimi K3 and significantly cheaper. Kimi is very focussed on coding, Gemini isn't. More importantly, it natively understands text, audio and video. If/when we are able to make the jump to robotics, this becomes essential. As you say, Google has a lot of deep background and deep pockets, they are able to make more of a long play. No idea if it will pay off, but it is way to early in the game to count them out.
- bronlund 18d ago
  You have some good points there.
- verdverm 17d ago
  Distillation does not make a model. There is so much more that goes into creating LLM Ai, traces from better models alone is insufficient. You need a good pre training run as foundation, a great RL reward function to make the other model's traces useful, and serious engineering chops to manage training runs at that scale. (non-exhaustive list)
dbbk 18d ago
Uh, what? This is SOTA for a live model. What are you talking about?
Dardalus 17d ago
Yeah, you should definitely sell all Google stock you may hold, immediately, to me, before it's too late. I'm just a sucker, I'm happy to buy from you.

fileeditview 18d ago

And yet they might become one of the winners "in the end" because they have near infinite money and others have not. I will drink tea and watch the show.

tonfa 18d ago
> they have near infinite money and others have not Given the very high margins on inference, once volume is large enough the other can also start printing enough money.

password54321 18d ago

None of the startups are profitable. What exactly are they getting beaten at? My advice is to listen less to brainrot 'influencers' that optimise for engagement through sensationalism.

bronlund 18d ago
Intelligence. They have "unlimited" resources and has researched AI since the very beginning - PageRank is a form of AI even. And still, Gemini is behind Claude, GPT, Grok, Muse, GLM, Kimi and is maybe on par with DeepSeek? As I said, it is embarrassing.
- Forgeties79 18d ago
  > Grok No one is behind grok. It literally has "be funny and irreverent when appropriate" (whatever the hell "when appropriate" means for them) baked into the system prompt. To me, that is all you need to know about how useful it is. No serious people use it and the numbers bear it out tbh. It has the smallest market share of the "big companies" for a reason - and it's by a very, very large margin (~2.5% last I checked).
- deleted 18d ago
  [deleted]
- password54321 18d ago
  If RSI is achievable, it will leapfrog everything produced so far and so it will make sense to focus on RSI instead of incremental improvements for your top model. Startups need investment and need to show progress. Google does not at the moment need to take lead in the current race.
  - Forgeties79 17d ago
    And yet they are burning through their famous cash on hand and taking on debt for data centers like everyone else.
- no_carrier 17d ago
  Their Flash model is going head to head with the SOTA models. It's completely the opposite of embarrassing.

dude250711 18d ago

It makes Meta look not that bad.

mchusma 18d ago

Their live models have been and continue to be at the frontier. I like them a lot!

mattlondon 18d ago

Have you used Google search at all on the past few months? Every single search brings up a live chat prompt. They're serving fast AI to billions of users at huge scale everyday And they're making money doing it. Perhaps they don't have the best coding model right now (although 3.8 flash is arguably SOTA at some benchmarks), but is that the be-all and end-all of AI? Only coding matters?

thereitgoes456 18d ago
It’s so annoying that everyone just points to the Artificial Analysis index (or even worse, Epoch AI, where part of the score is how good the AI is at chess) as a proxy for “how good” the model is.
- owebmaster 17d ago
  Most people talking about Gemini quality do so by experience.
  - verdverm 17d ago
    sounds vibes and bias laden
    - brazukadev 17d ago
      what's your solution? force people to use gemini until they like it? or hire them as googlers?
      - verdverm 17d ago
        my approach is to not use closed weight models, I'm not trying to solve for how to get people to use gemini, quite the opposite actually
- dbbk 18d ago
  At least AA have a dedicated speech model index, of which this is now the leader: https://artificialanalysis.ai/speech-to-speech https://artificialanalysis.ai/speech-to-speech

arw0n 18d ago

Strongly disagree with that take. Kimi K3 is a distilled model. I'm not saying that as a moral judgement, or to disparage the team behind it, but distilling and building on that is significantly easier and cheaper than building from the ground up. And Gemini is kinda good enough at everything. Never the top, but it is decent at every task, and it is much faster than Kimi K3 and significantly cheaper. Kimi is very focussed on coding, Gemini isn't. More importantly, it natively understands text, audio and video. If/when we are able to make the jump to robotics, this becomes essential. As you say, Google has a lot of deep background and deep pockets, they are able to make more of a long play. No idea if it will pay off, but it is way to early in the game to count them out.

bronlund 18d ago
You have some good points there.
verdverm 17d ago
Distillation does not make a model. There is so much more that goes into creating LLM Ai, traces from better models alone is insufficient. You need a good pre training run as foundation, a great RL reward function to make the other model's traces useful, and serious engineering chops to manage training runs at that scale. (non-exhaustive list)

dbbk 18d ago

Uh, what? This is SOTA for a live model. What are you talking about?

Dardalus 17d ago

Yeah, you should definitely sell all Google stock you may hold, immediately, to me, before it's too late. I'm just a sucker, I'm happy to buy from you.