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I’m guessing their solution is for us to be even more dependent upon oil? The issue here is that we based our entire economy around a substance that is incredi

by dabinat 11d ago

I’m guessing their solution is for us to be even more dependent upon oil? The issue here is that we based our entire economy around a substance that is incredibly price-volatile, run by a cartel, and is plentiful mostly in places that are unstable or hostile to us. I think it’s crazy that we’ve completely normalized the idea that fuel needs to have prices listed outside a gas station because it changes so frequently. Imagine if supermarkets had to list the price of a loaf of bread outside because it kept changing so often. And it’s really our own fault (or at least the fault of politicians bought by oil companies) because the dangers of oil dependence were obvious at least back in the 70s.

oatmeal1 11d ago
Braess's/Pigou's Paradox that more car lanes cause more traffic was found in the 1920's. We massively overbuilt for the car regardless and keep getting worse traffic to this day.
- kadoban 11d ago
  > Braess's/Pigou's Paradox that more car lanes cause more traffic was found in the 1920's. The paradox is that it _can_ cause worse traffic, not that it always does. American cities are built like shit for transport, but it's not as simple as "roads too big, therefore traffic". Sprawl is a much bigger (and more difficult to do ~anything about) issue.
  - Eddy_Viscosity2 11d ago
    There is a strong interdependency between sprawl, big roads, and traffic. They are not separate problems.
- bgexhtach 11d ago
  Faster CPUs cause people to run larger programs. Egad! Nobody needs more than 100 MHz! Ban FLOP inflation now before Big Silicon makes us burn any more electricity.
  - 28304283409234 11d ago
    inFLOPtion?
RobotToaster 11d ago
> and is plentiful mostly in places that are unstable or hostile to us. Plentiful in places we keep making unstable and hostile to us by bombing.
- Leonard_of_Q 11d ago
  A little history goes a long way: https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/barbary-wars.html https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-... The enmity between "the West" and "the middle east" goes back to the islamic colonisation era which created a religious incentive to "fight the infidels" and/or plunder and enslave them.
  - soco 11d ago
    I challenge you to find one time period or some states/tribes which did not plunder and enslave each other throughout history. I'm fed up with all this "oh but they did it first" - everybody did it first and that's still no reason to continue doing it with the children of their children.
    - Byvrsakjo10 11d ago
      In ancient times everyone plundered each other unless they were allies, it was just how the world operated at the time I think it was probably more of a survival tactic "plunder or get plundered".
      - treapassing-sil 11d ago
        Then came the next stage of plunder. 'Pay a tax and you'll be protected' Some it was true, but most times it also cost your life. Never simple.
        Byvrsakjo10 11d ago
        If universal basic income becomes a thing, meaning no tax what we'll be the next stage of plunder?
JumpCrisscross 11d ago
> guessing their solution is for us to be even more dependent upon oil? They're competent enough to be able to model the demand destruction occuring globally. In the meantime, given "Canada supplied the U.S. with more than 60 per cent of its crude oil imports last year," Canada's oil bonanza may not only make up for their tariff losses but actually put them into a net surplus [1]. [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-oil-prices-trump-iran-trade-war-tariffs-9.7341298 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-oil-prices-trump-ira...
xbar 11d ago
Their solution is to drive demand for domestically-produced oil at ever increasing volumes and prices.
- spwa4 11d ago
  Really. When answering the "Qui Bono?" question the lion's share of the profits go to ... the governments of countries where the oil is sold (ie. EU governments, US, ...). 2/3 of the price is pure taxes, (of those taxes 1/3 producer country, 2/3 oil using country) which adds nothing to the product. Pretty sure at the moment their solution is to shout about this far and wide so when it actually happens they don't get lynched by the crowd. This has never worked before. Why not? Because the government, who are responsible this time and previous times, are going to blame them because they "set the price" (except of course they set the last 1% or so of the price, which makes them a very nice profit, the 99% is the government, for example, there isn't a single EU country that doesn't levy a 80% tax on fuel, so the government could just halve the price. Could ... but won't. This is disregarding that obviously one way to look both wars, in Ukraine, the problem is EU governments failing to come to a workable relationship with Russia, and Iran and Trump, well does it even need to be said? Despite the news, I will say that the Ukraine war in Europe is by far the bigger factor. Obviously both wars fundamentally are failures of politicians to do what they're supposedly good at, come to acceptable solutions for everyone. And this accounts for ~60% of the price of oil before any other tax ... These taxes are part of the reason Russia and Iran are making war and every other oil nation complains constantly. They find this unfair, given that it's their oil that's being sold. They're still bound by market forces, meaning the price is determined by supply and demand like any other product, BUT supply is artificially and drastically made more expensive than it really is, and that money doesn't benefit who it benefits for every other product (ie. not the producer, not even the producer country's government). Per liter the costs are about: €0.02 Saudi lifting €0.04 Saudi upstream investment €0.52 crude resource/market value €0.05–0.07 physical refining €0.02–0.04 refinery capital/maintenance/compliance ~€0.25 exceptional current refining/product scarcity spread ~€0.05 ethanol/blending/product logistics/etc. €0.23 Belgian distribution €0.014 strategic stocks €0.60 excise €0.382 VAT Who profits? Saudi government (much better than almost all other producers): 0.46 euro per liter (of that, you can never be absolutely sure, but arguably about 0.3 euro per liter is due to EU and US politicians not managing to prevent wars with oil producers) Oil companies REVENUE (of which 6% or so is profit): 0.25 (this 0.25 is ENTIRELY due to the wars as well, not because supply is limited but because oil companies are forced to start from inferior products) + 0.23 + 0.05 = 0.52 The total amount of the 2 above is constant, because global market, but the split between oil companies and governments varies, and is generally much worse to oil producer governments. Standard EU government cut, taking Belgium example (because Brussels = Belgium): 0.60 + 0.382 + 0.014 The "real" oil price RIGHT NOW (with the war price hikes) is about 0.5 euros per liter. That includes the massive oil company profits. 0.46 (or less) goes to governments of oil producing nations, 0.99 goes to the government where the oil is sold as fuel. And this is being nice, counting the 0.05 ethanol as oil company revenue when this is only done because of government demands. A great gesture would be to, say, limit the excise tax to 0.4 (which is still more than the government got 1st Jan 2023, before the governments' failures) On the plus side, this is probably the "last hurrah" for the oil market. If/when these wars end, oil price will halve (gas prices will only come down to like 1.6, 1.7 per liter though, because excise tax never goes down). Despite that, this will still kill the energy tax for governments ... which they'll need to make up. Hence an obvious but counterintuitive prediction: when the Ukraine war ends, EU and US governments will start taxing solar power.
Aurornis 11d ago
> run by a cartel, and is plentiful mostly in places that are unstable or hostile to us. If by "we" you mean the United States, it's worth noting that the US is a net exporter of fuel products and our net imports of crude oil have dropped a lot. > Imagine if supermarkets had to list the price of a loaf of bread outside because it kept changing so often. This actually happens when prices become volatile. Not long ago I could see the prices of eggs posted outside different stores on my drive home.
georgemcbay 11d ago
> Imagine if supermarkets had to list the price of a loaf of bread outside because it kept changing so often. I don't think they'll post bread prices outside when the hyper inflation starts, they'll just use e-ink digital price tags. But you won't have to wait long for food prices to become wildly volatile in the upward direction... As the price of diesel fuel continues to skyrocket, so will the the price of bread (and every other physical item you buy). People think inflation is bad now, later this year and in 2027 it is going to be so, so much worse on the current trajectory.
downrightmike 11d ago
They are just setting up for even larger profits this year than last.
dzhiurgis 11d ago
OK you got 4 years of tenure to rebase economy on something else. First step - you'll need copper so we can have enough generators, power for DCs, EVs, etc. Current world capacity 23 million tones per year and supplies are shaky due to concentration in rocks going down, but we need additional 10 million tons of capacity by 2035. How many copper mines are you opening? Are you going to subsidize the workers to a tune of $100 per hour?
- ozlikethewizard 11d ago
  Ah yea, because the problem is hard we shouldn't try to fix it we should all just burn instead
  - cindyllm 11d ago
    [dead]

by dabinat 11d ago

oatmeal1 11d ago

Braess's/Pigou's Paradox that more car lanes cause more traffic was found in the 1920's. We massively overbuilt for the car regardless and keep getting worse traffic to this day.

kadoban 11d ago
> Braess's/Pigou's Paradox that more car lanes cause more traffic was found in the 1920's. The paradox is that it _can_ cause worse traffic, not that it always does. American cities are built like shit for transport, but it's not as simple as "roads too big, therefore traffic". Sprawl is a much bigger (and more difficult to do ~anything about) issue.
- Eddy_Viscosity2 11d ago
  There is a strong interdependency between sprawl, big roads, and traffic. They are not separate problems.
bgexhtach 11d ago
Faster CPUs cause people to run larger programs. Egad! Nobody needs more than 100 MHz! Ban FLOP inflation now before Big Silicon makes us burn any more electricity.
- 28304283409234 11d ago
  inFLOPtion?

RobotToaster 11d ago

> and is plentiful mostly in places that are unstable or hostile to us. Plentiful in places we keep making unstable and hostile to us by bombing.

Leonard_of_Q 11d ago
A little history goes a long way: https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/barbary-wars.html https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-... The enmity between "the West" and "the middle east" goes back to the islamic colonisation era which created a religious incentive to "fight the infidels" and/or plunder and enslave them.
- soco 11d ago
  I challenge you to find one time period or some states/tribes which did not plunder and enslave each other throughout history. I'm fed up with all this "oh but they did it first" - everybody did it first and that's still no reason to continue doing it with the children of their children.
  - Byvrsakjo10 11d ago
    In ancient times everyone plundered each other unless they were allies, it was just how the world operated at the time I think it was probably more of a survival tactic "plunder or get plundered".
    - treapassing-sil 11d ago
      Then came the next stage of plunder. 'Pay a tax and you'll be protected' Some it was true, but most times it also cost your life. Never simple.
      - Byvrsakjo10 11d ago
        If universal basic income becomes a thing, meaning no tax what we'll be the next stage of plunder?

JumpCrisscross 11d ago

> guessing their solution is for us to be even more dependent upon oil? They're competent enough to be able to model the demand destruction occuring globally. In the meantime, given "Canada supplied the U.S. with more than 60 per cent of its crude oil imports last year," Canada's oil bonanza may not only make up for their tariff losses but actually put them into a net surplus [1]. [1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-oil-prices-trump-iran-trade-war-tariffs-9.7341298 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-oil-prices-trump-ira...

xbar 11d ago

Their solution is to drive demand for domestically-produced oil at ever increasing volumes and prices.

spwa4 11d ago
Really. When answering the "Qui Bono?" question the lion's share of the profits go to ... the governments of countries where the oil is sold (ie. EU governments, US, ...). 2/3 of the price is pure taxes, (of those taxes 1/3 producer country, 2/3 oil using country) which adds nothing to the product. Pretty sure at the moment their solution is to shout about this far and wide so when it actually happens they don't get lynched by the crowd. This has never worked before. Why not? Because the government, who are responsible this time and previous times, are going to blame them because they "set the price" (except of course they set the last 1% or so of the price, which makes them a very nice profit, the 99% is the government, for example, there isn't a single EU country that doesn't levy a 80% tax on fuel, so the government could just halve the price. Could ... but won't. This is disregarding that obviously one way to look both wars, in Ukraine, the problem is EU governments failing to come to a workable relationship with Russia, and Iran and Trump, well does it even need to be said? Despite the news, I will say that the Ukraine war in Europe is by far the bigger factor. Obviously both wars fundamentally are failures of politicians to do what they're supposedly good at, come to acceptable solutions for everyone. And this accounts for ~60% of the price of oil before any other tax ... These taxes are part of the reason Russia and Iran are making war and every other oil nation complains constantly. They find this unfair, given that it's their oil that's being sold. They're still bound by market forces, meaning the price is determined by supply and demand like any other product, BUT supply is artificially and drastically made more expensive than it really is, and that money doesn't benefit who it benefits for every other product (ie. not the producer, not even the producer country's government). Per liter the costs are about: €0.02 Saudi lifting €0.04 Saudi upstream investment €0.52 crude resource/market value €0.05–0.07 physical refining €0.02–0.04 refinery capital/maintenance/compliance ~€0.25 exceptional current refining/product scarcity spread ~€0.05 ethanol/blending/product logistics/etc. €0.23 Belgian distribution €0.014 strategic stocks €0.60 excise €0.382 VAT Who profits? Saudi government (much better than almost all other producers): 0.46 euro per liter (of that, you can never be absolutely sure, but arguably about 0.3 euro per liter is due to EU and US politicians not managing to prevent wars with oil producers) Oil companies REVENUE (of which 6% or so is profit): 0.25 (this 0.25 is ENTIRELY due to the wars as well, not because supply is limited but because oil companies are forced to start from inferior products) + 0.23 + 0.05 = 0.52 The total amount of the 2 above is constant, because global market, but the split between oil companies and governments varies, and is generally much worse to oil producer governments. Standard EU government cut, taking Belgium example (because Brussels = Belgium): 0.60 + 0.382 + 0.014 The "real" oil price RIGHT NOW (with the war price hikes) is about 0.5 euros per liter. That includes the massive oil company profits. 0.46 (or less) goes to governments of oil producing nations, 0.99 goes to the government where the oil is sold as fuel. And this is being nice, counting the 0.05 ethanol as oil company revenue when this is only done because of government demands. A great gesture would be to, say, limit the excise tax to 0.4 (which is still more than the government got 1st Jan 2023, before the governments' failures) On the plus side, this is probably the "last hurrah" for the oil market. If/when these wars end, oil price will halve (gas prices will only come down to like 1.6, 1.7 per liter though, because excise tax never goes down). Despite that, this will still kill the energy tax for governments ... which they'll need to make up. Hence an obvious but counterintuitive prediction: when the Ukraine war ends, EU and US governments will start taxing solar power.

Aurornis 11d ago

> run by a cartel, and is plentiful mostly in places that are unstable or hostile to us. If by "we" you mean the United States, it's worth noting that the US is a net exporter of fuel products and our net imports of crude oil have dropped a lot. > Imagine if supermarkets had to list the price of a loaf of bread outside because it kept changing so often. This actually happens when prices become volatile. Not long ago I could see the prices of eggs posted outside different stores on my drive home.

georgemcbay 11d ago

> Imagine if supermarkets had to list the price of a loaf of bread outside because it kept changing so often. I don't think they'll post bread prices outside when the hyper inflation starts, they'll just use e-ink digital price tags. But you won't have to wait long for food prices to become wildly volatile in the upward direction... As the price of diesel fuel continues to skyrocket, so will the the price of bread (and every other physical item you buy). People think inflation is bad now, later this year and in 2027 it is going to be so, so much worse on the current trajectory.

downrightmike 11d ago

They are just setting up for even larger profits this year than last.

dzhiurgis 11d ago

OK you got 4 years of tenure to rebase economy on something else. First step - you'll need copper so we can have enough generators, power for DCs, EVs, etc. Current world capacity 23 million tones per year and supplies are shaky due to concentration in rocks going down, but we need additional 10 million tons of capacity by 2035. How many copper mines are you opening? Are you going to subsidize the workers to a tune of $100 per hour?

ozlikethewizard 11d ago
Ah yea, because the problem is hard we shouldn't try to fix it we should all just burn instead
- cindyllm 11d ago
  [dead]