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> Is there any data you can provide to support your claim, or any result you can contribute here? By the time we can show you data that convinces you that it d

> Is there any data you can provide to support your claim, or any result you can contribute here? By the time we can show you data that convinces you that it does work, the next generation would already be out & incrementally dismantling the old conjectures that were true in the previous generations. You're fundamentally asking for a violation of how information passively disseminates amongst humans: To go any faster requires more effort on the receiver's part to move up on the adoption curve.

croon 12d ago
Wouldn't this also mean that all previous generations that were proclaimed as intelligent and working were in fact... not? It doesn't matter what comes tomorrow, with the next generation, if the claims now can't be proven. To preempt the response: The math proof, regardless of them using non-disclosed user data or not, they spent $30M do do something closer to a 1000 monkeys approach, rather than a singular inference being very intelligent.
- pinkmuffinere 12d ago
  To preface -- I try not to be dogmatic/politicized on AI, so I will genuinely consider your arguments! Please try to convince me. (indeed, I am the grandparent commenter) I agree with the meat of your statement, but am very interested in the pre-emption, "they spent $30M do do something closer to a 1000 monkeys approach, rather than a singular inference being very intelligent". First, I think the $30M number is inflated -- that's what the general public would have paid, but presumably the internal cost is lower, perhaps it's more like $10M. But it is still expensive. Second, I'm curious if it's really the case that they did a 1000-monkeys approach? I haven't read much in-depth reporting about the proof, so it's totally possible I just don't know. What is it that they did which is more like 1000-monkeys? Also, I wonder if that distinction matters -- if 1000 monkeys can reliably make ground breaking proofs, and the approach generalizes to other tasks, I will happily become a circus owner. Maybe you're claiming that it won't yield other proofs? Or the proofs are too opaque to be useful to humans? Or it can handle proofs but not other tasks?
  - croon 12d ago
    I'll respond/comment on the parts I hope are relevant to you, in no particular order: Yes, a proof is a proof regardless how you get there. We however don't hear about when they fail, and I doubt their 10000 agents (from their own statement) would necessarily reach another solution/proof (this by leaning towards using user data after finding out others were close). They could as well have attacked another Millenium problem, but they didn't. In whichever case, we will have to wait and see if they (either company) can reach novel solutions/proofs without significant amount of human provided data for the LLM to bridge the gaps. Further, and this is more of a policy opinion/prediction: If the numerable obtainable (albeit very hard) problems are solved, assuming training data is needed, will it push out future researchers from entering the field due to lack of reachable goals, thus cutting off future training data? LLMs have been great at replacing gateway jobs. But those jobs are what leads to frontier training data (be it maths, physics, chemistry, economics, graphics, prose, etc).
    - pinkmuffinere 11d ago
      Ah it's interesting they legitimately used 10k agents, I didn't realize that. I do agree that it's significant they solved the Millenium problem only once humans had made significant headway. I'm not sure I believe the relevant training data will be produced at a significantly lower rate due to AI -- Millenium problem solutions weren't generated at a very high rate before anyways. But I think all your points hold nonetheless. Thanks for elaborating on them!

croon 12d ago

Wouldn't this also mean that all previous generations that were proclaimed as intelligent and working were in fact... not? It doesn't matter what comes tomorrow, with the next generation, if the claims now can't be proven. To preempt the response: The math proof, regardless of them using non-disclosed user data or not, they spent $30M do do something closer to a 1000 monkeys approach, rather than a singular inference being very intelligent.

pinkmuffinere 12d ago
To preface -- I try not to be dogmatic/politicized on AI, so I will genuinely consider your arguments! Please try to convince me. (indeed, I am the grandparent commenter) I agree with the meat of your statement, but am very interested in the pre-emption, "they spent $30M do do something closer to a 1000 monkeys approach, rather than a singular inference being very intelligent". First, I think the $30M number is inflated -- that's what the general public would have paid, but presumably the internal cost is lower, perhaps it's more like $10M. But it is still expensive. Second, I'm curious if it's really the case that they did a 1000-monkeys approach? I haven't read much in-depth reporting about the proof, so it's totally possible I just don't know. What is it that they did which is more like 1000-monkeys? Also, I wonder if that distinction matters -- if 1000 monkeys can reliably make ground breaking proofs, and the approach generalizes to other tasks, I will happily become a circus owner. Maybe you're claiming that it won't yield other proofs? Or the proofs are too opaque to be useful to humans? Or it can handle proofs but not other tasks?
- croon 12d ago
  I'll respond/comment on the parts I hope are relevant to you, in no particular order: Yes, a proof is a proof regardless how you get there. We however don't hear about when they fail, and I doubt their 10000 agents (from their own statement) would necessarily reach another solution/proof (this by leaning towards using user data after finding out others were close). They could as well have attacked another Millenium problem, but they didn't. In whichever case, we will have to wait and see if they (either company) can reach novel solutions/proofs without significant amount of human provided data for the LLM to bridge the gaps. Further, and this is more of a policy opinion/prediction: If the numerable obtainable (albeit very hard) problems are solved, assuming training data is needed, will it push out future researchers from entering the field due to lack of reachable goals, thus cutting off future training data? LLMs have been great at replacing gateway jobs. But those jobs are what leads to frontier training data (be it maths, physics, chemistry, economics, graphics, prose, etc).
  - pinkmuffinere 11d ago
    Ah it's interesting they legitimately used 10k agents, I didn't realize that. I do agree that it's significant they solved the Millenium problem only once humans had made significant headway. I'm not sure I believe the relevant training data will be produced at a significantly lower rate due to AI -- Millenium problem solutions weren't generated at a very high rate before anyways. But I think all your points hold nonetheless. Thanks for elaborating on them!