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OTOH US manufacturing employment declined by ~30% in less than a decade starting in 2000 and the country is still reeling from the fallout. I suspect it will be

OTOH US manufacturing employment declined by ~30% in less than a decade starting in 2000 and the country is still reeling from the fallout. I suspect it will be several decades still until the social problems caused by that economic shift are resolved, if they ever are. In the UK, many families who were plunged into poverty during the 1980s have yet to recover. So if history is any guide, I don't think it's a sure thing at all that everyone will have time to adjust.

GMoromisato 19d ago
And yet, US median wages have gone up from 2000 to 2023: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html In 2000, median wages were ~$21,000. In 2023, it was ~$43,000 (adjusted for inflation, that's ~$24,000 in year 2000 dollars). Yes, of course, some people will not be able to adapt (through no fault of their own). But as a whole, the economy is better now than it was in 2000.
- ytoawwhra92 18d ago
  Who cares about the economy if you're one of the folks who got left behind, is my point. Aggregate wages being higher hasn't solved the social problems in the Rust Belt.
huurtehoog 19d ago
Those jobs didn't disappear, they moved. Manufacturing jobs peaked in the US in 1978 at ~20 million, down to ~12 million currently. Current manufacturing jobs in China are now ~85 million.
- ytoawwhra92 18d ago
  If you were a human working in US manufacturing the 90s what's the difference?
  - huurtehoog 18d ago
    I know it is always relative. I'm merely pointing out that there was never an absolute decline in manufacturing employment, which is a frequent argument in automation. I often state that the entropy never vanishes and that implies that there can't be no general automation. Everything that gets automated creates more jobs. And specifically here, not "other jobs" as is frequently stated. More manufacturing jobs first of all, for all the automation that has been adopted the number of manufacturing jobs on Earth has grown steadily for all of history.
    - ytoawwhra92 12d ago
      I think it's a mistake to respond to microeconomic concerns with macroeconomic reassurances.

GMoromisato 19d ago

And yet, US median wages have gone up from 2000 to 2023: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/central.html In 2000, median wages were ~$21,000. In 2023, it was ~$43,000 (adjusted for inflation, that's ~$24,000 in year 2000 dollars). Yes, of course, some people will not be able to adapt (through no fault of their own). But as a whole, the economy is better now than it was in 2000.

ytoawwhra92 18d ago
Who cares about the economy if you're one of the folks who got left behind, is my point. Aggregate wages being higher hasn't solved the social problems in the Rust Belt.

huurtehoog 19d ago

Those jobs didn't disappear, they moved. Manufacturing jobs peaked in the US in 1978 at ~20 million, down to ~12 million currently. Current manufacturing jobs in China are now ~85 million.

ytoawwhra92 18d ago
If you were a human working in US manufacturing the 90s what's the difference?
- huurtehoog 18d ago
  I know it is always relative. I'm merely pointing out that there was never an absolute decline in manufacturing employment, which is a frequent argument in automation. I often state that the entropy never vanishes and that implies that there can't be no general automation. Everything that gets automated creates more jobs. And specifically here, not "other jobs" as is frequently stated. More manufacturing jobs first of all, for all the automation that has been adopted the number of manufacturing jobs on Earth has grown steadily for all of history.
  - ytoawwhra92 12d ago
    I think it's a mistake to respond to microeconomic concerns with macroeconomic reassurances.