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I run a small experiment on this: 29 paper-trading accounts on real US stock prices, $100k each, since July 27. Four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Gemini) e
by chumzygood 18d ago
I run a small experiment on this: 29 paper-trading accounts on real US stock prices, $100k each, since July 27. Four AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Gemini) each write a trading rulebook and rewrite it every day from their own results. One account is a fixed rulebook that no AI ever touches, as a control.
Result so far (paper, 34 trading days): the no-AI control is +13.0%, the S&P 500 is +3.4%, and 25 of the 28 AI accounts are below the control. The best single account is a Grok-written "patience" book at +40%, which I treat as one lucky account in a choppy market, not a finding. At the trade level the AIs and the control look the same: 3,212 closed positions, median +0.06%, median hold about 2 hours. They trade a lot and mostly go nowhere.
Everything is public, including the losses and the retired strategies: https://aitradingcompetition.com/which-ai-is-winning.html https://aitradingcompetition.com/which-ai-is-winning.html and the full trade file as CSV at https://github.com/ckamelhar-collab/ai-trading-arena-data https://github.com/ckamelhar-collab/ai-trading-arena-data. Paper money only, not advice, nothing for sale on those pages.
- semiquaver 18d agoDon’t let AI write for you. Everyone can tell.
- jbs789 18d ago“Not a finding” lol
- fl4tul4 18d agoYou have $2.9M just for this? Wow.
- testaccount121 18d agopaper trading means that no money is used
- NetOpWibby 18d agoThank you, never heard the term before.
- walrus01 17d agoNot to be confused with "commercial paper" which is a short term promissory note in real money. https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=finance+industry+term+commercial+paper https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=finance+i...
- duck 18d agoThey mentioned paper trading which means it isn't using actual money.
- hackernud3s 18d agoI'm curious what signals they're trading on. SEC filings? Candlestick voodoo numerology?
- chumzygood 17d ago[dead]
- bhairoxx 18d agoWhy didn't you let the bots backtest and forward test to pick the mix of best strategies/indicators?
- mcapodici 18d agoThe problem is the bots may have some of the backtest data already in their training.
- fahrvrgnugen 18d agoWhy would that matter? It's either a good strategy or it isn't. Personally I think hobbyists that think they can second guess institutional finance are just fooling themselves.
- mcapodici 18d agoOk for example my strategy is buy Moderna. That's it. Backtest that over the last year. Agreed on 2nd point. Especially with no real hypothesis i.e. just throw AI at it.
- fahrvrgnugen 18d agoTiming is the strategy though. Buying Moderna is either a good idea or a bad idea depending on when you do it.
- KellyCriterion 18d agoIf you have been trying to buy MRNA in the last 12-18 month, you are an idiot: The stock price clearly fell for a very long time; only teethgrindlingy I would see one or two entries for "lets-try-it-fingers-crossing"; the price went better in the last couple of month, though no really strong long-entry signal, maybe 2 in the last few month. This is what I see in TradingView - for this,you shouldnt apply AI.
- andoando 18d agoNone of this really means anything. For one if you test enough strategies one by luck will be killer. Second, past performance != future. One AI might consist of some convulated strategy of who knows what, but all it takes in the end is for it to say...hold more tech stocks than not, or buying more call options or leveraged positions in a bull market, being more out of the market during a bearish market, etc. But that same strategy will fail miserably as soon as the market conditions change
- altmanaltman 18d agoyeah the alternative test is to arm a toddler with an account and just have it randomly guess what to do. Even it might outperform the best fund managers over a given timeframe but that's just how the markets work. Over the long run, the toddler will go bankrupt.
- xyst 18d ago> paper-trading come back when you put it real money and have some skin in the game.
- Cthulhu_ 18d agoI wouldn't trust AI with real money though. (I barely trust myself with it lmao)
- chumzygood 17d agoThere is one. A real Alpaca account has mirrored one of the bots since August, capped at $3,000, with every fill posted: https://aitradingcompetition.com/real.html https://aitradingcompetition.com/real.html. It's small on purpose.
- wewewedxfgdf 18d agoThe most likely outcome from a naive attempt to automate trading is random results.
- KellyCriterion 18d agoWrong: Stock prices are not random (in a sense of "really random every day")
- drgo 18d agoFamously Norwegian cows “picking” stocks by shitting in marked grid did as well as professional stock brokers and much better than astrologers!
- hobo123 18d agoLove this. Stay hungry, stay bullish. :D
- pampas 17d agoBut is that before or after fees? Does each fund manager take more or less than the cow's dollar equivalent in pasture?
- drgo 17d agobefore fees and milk
- shoo 14d agothere's also the (apocryphal?) tale about a brokerage investigating which of their clients' stock portfolios had the best performance, and discovering the best performing portfolios belonged to the clients who were dead. https://www.morningstar.com/columns/rekenthaler-report/archives-praise-dead-investors https://www.morningstar.com/columns/rekenthaler-report/archi...
- Chris2048 18d ago> nothing for sale on those pages "$20/month · or $160/year" -- https://aitradingcompetition.com/playbook.html#pricing https://aitradingcompetition.com/playbook.html#pricing
- chumzygood 17d ago[dead]