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I'm not making an affirmative case - I'm looking for others to introspect about this, and anchor their expectations. If we have a bioweapon close call, would y

I'm not making an affirmative case - I'm looking for others to introspect about this, and anchor their expectations. If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get? You don't need to answer here, or disclose anything publicly - just think and remember.

dullcrisp 12d ago
I don’t really understand this exercise of predicting what I’ll be thinking in the future.
- cowthulhu 12d ago
  To avoid shifting goalposts
  - dullcrisp 12d ago
    There are no goalposts. No one is trying to score points except you.
    - cowthulhu 12d ago
      I think I'm coming across as confrontational, which is genuinely not my intention - sorry about that. Not trying to score points or anything, just encourage people to introspect a bit :) I think your viewpoint is totally valid, and I'm not trying to argue against it.
      - dullcrisp 12d ago
        Not confrontational, but proselytizing.
        cowthulhu 12d ago
        Is there truly nothing an AI system could do (no matter how outlandish it seems today) that would give you pause?
        dullcrisp 12d ago
        Yes, just like that. What would it take for you to accept Our Lord into your heart?
        cowthulhu 12d ago
        The bar is high, but there's probably some combination of events (combined with a high confidence in my own lucidity over an extended period of time) that would convince me.
        dullcrisp 12d ago
        Same same.
        cowthulhu 12d ago
        :\
  - timr 12d ago
    But it doesn't do that. "Imagine how you'll be wrong in the future" is just as shiftable as anything else, and has the distinct rhetorical advantage of being unfalsifiable. The substantive difference is that you're asking me to dream up ridiculously improbable scenarios, which is probably the actual point. Just like "The End is Near Accept Jesus" guy on the street corner gets what he wants as soon as I engage. To quote a famous movie about doomy AI scenarios: "the only winning move is not to play."
emil-lp 12d ago
> If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get? The thing is, this doesn't really mean anything. What is a bioweapon close call? What is the process in which a bioweapon close call happens? An AI that hacks all cell phones to emitt anthrax?
- cowthulhu 12d ago
  It can be subjective, because it's internal to you and not something that gets litigated or whatever. A close call is anything that you personally consider to be a close call. I'm not asking you to post it here, I'm asking you to think about it and then remember it in the future, should the event ever occur.

dullcrisp 12d ago

I don’t really understand this exercise of predicting what I’ll be thinking in the future.

cowthulhu 12d ago
To avoid shifting goalposts
- dullcrisp 12d ago
  There are no goalposts. No one is trying to score points except you.
  - cowthulhu 12d ago
    I think I'm coming across as confrontational, which is genuinely not my intention - sorry about that. Not trying to score points or anything, just encourage people to introspect a bit :) I think your viewpoint is totally valid, and I'm not trying to argue against it.
    - dullcrisp 12d ago
      Not confrontational, but proselytizing.
      - cowthulhu 12d ago
        Is there truly nothing an AI system could do (no matter how outlandish it seems today) that would give you pause?
        dullcrisp 12d ago
        Yes, just like that. What would it take for you to accept Our Lord into your heart?
        cowthulhu 12d ago
        The bar is high, but there's probably some combination of events (combined with a high confidence in my own lucidity over an extended period of time) that would convince me.
        dullcrisp 12d ago
        Same same.
        cowthulhu 12d ago
        :\
- timr 12d ago
  But it doesn't do that. "Imagine how you'll be wrong in the future" is just as shiftable as anything else, and has the distinct rhetorical advantage of being unfalsifiable. The substantive difference is that you're asking me to dream up ridiculously improbable scenarios, which is probably the actual point. Just like "The End is Near Accept Jesus" guy on the street corner gets what he wants as soon as I engage. To quote a famous movie about doomy AI scenarios: "the only winning move is not to play."

emil-lp 12d ago

> If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get? The thing is, this doesn't really mean anything. What is a bioweapon close call? What is the process in which a bioweapon close call happens? An AI that hacks all cell phones to emitt anthrax?

cowthulhu 12d ago
It can be subjective, because it's internal to you and not something that gets litigated or whatever. A close call is anything that you personally consider to be a close call. I'm not asking you to post it here, I'm asking you to think about it and then remember it in the future, should the event ever occur.