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Things are really about to hit the fan. The world has been surviving off of strategic petroleum reserves, but those are quickly hitting the bottom. The US last

Things are really about to hit the fan. The world has been surviving off of strategic petroleum reserves, but those are quickly hitting the bottom. The US last reported at 285M barrels[0]. There is a legal floor of ~250M, after which it is reserved for government national defense. Usage has been all over the place, but the drawdown has been somewhere in the region of 1M barrels per day. Public analyses have said that the cavern integrity becomes threatened once levels fall below 300M. Current government claims the "real" floor is at 70M, but I believe this is a transparent ploy to assuage markets. The Saudi pipeline that was attacked had a capacity of 7M barrels per day. Gone for who knows how long. That 7MBPD that needs to come from somewhere. Edit: Should add - the big tankers require ~month to move oil to most consumers. So, there is one month of breathing room before the new pipeline loss materializes. [0] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W...

spicypixel 13d ago
It’s doubly bad now China is back buying oil.
- toomuchtodo 13d ago
  Not at volume yet. How quickly they return and what volumes will determine how fast oil prices go up. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49368661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49368661 (oil futures market participant)
- shoobiedoo 13d ago
  [dead]
WarmWash 13d ago
Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. Congress won't stop him either.
- dools 13d ago
  Expect many “court finds that Trump …” headlines with zero consequence.
- georgemcbay 13d ago
  > Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. I'd love to see someone try to refute this as the obvious outcome given every decision Trump has made, especially in his second term where he has far less sane babysitters around him. This is the "If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any" guy. This is the guy calling for steep rate cuts in the midst of a serious inflation problem. This is the guy that sabotages solar and wind power, intent on keeping us on oil and "clean coal" (lmao). He's 80 years old and a malignant narcissist, he doesn't give a single fuck what happens to anyone after he's dead (and he knows that'll be pretty soon) as long as he gets what he thinks he wants today. > Congress won't stop him either. Also something that proves out daily.
  - dofm 12d ago
    FWIW if I understand correctly what people say about Trump’s psychology, which if he is a malignant narcissist is a pretty complex maelstrom of instincts, he is actually at a disadvantage in imagining ever dying. He will not be able to cope with the idea, or be able to rationally plan for it. Unlike other eighty year olds he is not thinking of a future without him in it; rather nobody else has any future without him. So he is not acting nihilistically but desperately and grandiosely, as a way to deflect from the whole concept. I think there are many examples of this in recent months, but they are moderated by his inability to stay awake.
ndiddy 13d ago
> There is a legal floor of ~250M, after which it is reserved for government national defense. There is no "government national defense floor". As far as I can tell, this originates from someone misreading the SPR drawdown laws and then a bunch of people parroting it. The ~250M "floor" (really 252.4M) only applies for SPR drawdowns that aren't required by a severe energy supply interruption or to meet US obligations under the international energy program. Deciding what qualifies as a "severe energy supply interruption" is left up to the president. Essentially there's nothing stopping the president from emptying the reserve entirely. See sections d and h here: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title%3A42+section%3A6241+edition%3Aprelim) https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title%3A42+section%... > Public analyses have said that the cavern integrity becomes threatened once levels fall below 300M. This isn't how the SPR works. They withdraw oil from it by pumping in water (oil floats on water, so the oil goes to the top). This means that the caverns won't cave in or something if there's too little oil, since they'll have the same volume inside them. What does wear out the SPR is drawing down at all, since the water erodes the caverns. The problem is cumulative, not caused by levels going below a certain point. There's a good article that goes over how the SPR works and its current status here if you're interested: https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-106918/index.html https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-106918/index.html
- fc417fc802 13d ago
  Either way it seems the US has somewhere from 1 to 8 months before accounting for reductions due to national considerations. That's concerning no matter how you frame it. What's the outlook for the other major economies?
  - disgruntledphd2 12d ago
    Much, much worse for the EU, probably about the same for China (based on their actions so far).
- omgwtfbyobbq 13d ago
  The problem with drawdowns is they can and have compromised the structural integrity of the caverns used in the SPR. Like oil, they're a finite resource and should be used judiciously. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2585591 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2585591
sandworm101 12d ago
What a great time to start a trade war with the largest oil exporter. Think there is a shortage now? Just think what happens when canada turns off the taps. Even the threat could trigger covid-style hoarding.
- goalieca 12d ago
  Our oil travels across our country via the USA. We also depend heavily on USA refining in certain provinces. This will never happen.
  - xethos 12d ago
    The trade war was claimed to be in part kicked off by a trade deficit - meaning Alberta is simultaneously a major cause of the trade war (by moving so much of their oil south for things refinement, and contributing to the trade imbalance), and a stumbling block for Canada to effectively fight back. Tariffs on Albertan oil will be looked at (by Albertans) as the Liberal PM hurting them out of malice, instead of a cudgel to fight back against Goliath
    - goalieca 12d ago
      The trade war tarrifs are punishing Alberta the least. Ontario and Quebec are taking more of it.
      - xethos 12d ago
        Precisely - Carney can't tariff Albertan oil without stoking seperatist rhetoric, which Smith is using as a political tool instead of stating outright Alberta will always be part of a Canada, and shutting down the [real or manufactured] movement
        goalieca 12d ago
        What I meant to say is the USA didn’t care about Alberta. They’re about supply management, subsidies in manufacturing and lumber and dairy and that. Alberta has their hands clean in this one.
bawolff 12d ago
> The Saudi pipeline that was attacked had a capacity of 7M barrels per day. Gone for who knows how long. That 7MBPD that needs to come from somewhere. it probably depends on what exactly happened to the pipeline, but normally i'd expect this to be a short term disruption, as replacing a small segment isn't really that hard. The real question is will it be struck over and over again.
- pseudohadamard 12d ago
  The Houthis destroyed a pumping station, you don't just plug in a new one of those in a week or two. Also given the length of the pipeline they can just take out more parts of it at their leisure.
  - bawolff 12d ago
    I'd disagree, i think a single pumping station can be fixed relatively quickly. The real problem is your second sentence - if Houthis just keep blowing it up every time the Saudis fix it.
    - pseudohadamard 11d ago
      A fault at a pumping station, for example a broken valve, can be fixed relatively quickly, you pull a spare out of storage and install it, taking maybe a couple of days if it's a critical-path component that can't be bypassed and you need to shut down and commission-test afterwards. This isn't a fault though, what the Houthis have done is turned the whole site into a blackened pile of twisted metal, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline-drone-attack-houthis-global-oil-supply-prices https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline.... The remedy isn't to replace a part, it's to clear the entire site of debris and rebuild it from the ground up. And that's assuming the material to build a complete pumping station is just lying around in a yard somewhere and doesn't need to be manufactured on demand with an 18-month lead time - the story quotes 1 1/2 months to repair, but who knows what it'll actually be.

spicypixel 13d ago

It’s doubly bad now China is back buying oil.

toomuchtodo 13d ago
Not at volume yet. How quickly they return and what volumes will determine how fast oil prices go up. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49368661 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49368661 (oil futures market participant)
shoobiedoo 13d ago
[dead]

WarmWash 13d ago

Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. Congress won't stop him either.

dools 13d ago
Expect many “court finds that Trump …” headlines with zero consequence.
georgemcbay 13d ago
> Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. I'd love to see someone try to refute this as the obvious outcome given every decision Trump has made, especially in his second term where he has far less sane babysitters around him. This is the "If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any" guy. This is the guy calling for steep rate cuts in the midst of a serious inflation problem. This is the guy that sabotages solar and wind power, intent on keeping us on oil and "clean coal" (lmao). He's 80 years old and a malignant narcissist, he doesn't give a single fuck what happens to anyone after he's dead (and he knows that'll be pretty soon) as long as he gets what he thinks he wants today. > Congress won't stop him either. Also something that proves out daily.
- dofm 12d ago
  FWIW if I understand correctly what people say about Trump’s psychology, which if he is a malignant narcissist is a pretty complex maelstrom of instincts, he is actually at a disadvantage in imagining ever dying. He will not be able to cope with the idea, or be able to rationally plan for it. Unlike other eighty year olds he is not thinking of a future without him in it; rather nobody else has any future without him. So he is not acting nihilistically but desperately and grandiosely, as a way to deflect from the whole concept. I think there are many examples of this in recent months, but they are moderated by his inability to stay awake.

ndiddy 13d ago

> There is a legal floor of ~250M, after which it is reserved for government national defense. There is no "government national defense floor". As far as I can tell, this originates from someone misreading the SPR drawdown laws and then a bunch of people parroting it. The ~250M "floor" (really 252.4M) only applies for SPR drawdowns that aren't required by a severe energy supply interruption or to meet US obligations under the international energy program. Deciding what qualifies as a "severe energy supply interruption" is left up to the president. Essentially there's nothing stopping the president from emptying the reserve entirely. See sections d and h here: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title%3A42+section%3A6241+edition%3Aprelim) https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title%3A42+section%... > Public analyses have said that the cavern integrity becomes threatened once levels fall below 300M. This isn't how the SPR works. They withdraw oil from it by pumping in water (oil floats on water, so the oil goes to the top). This means that the caverns won't cave in or something if there's too little oil, since they'll have the same volume inside them. What does wear out the SPR is drawing down at all, since the water erodes the caverns. The problem is cumulative, not caused by levels going below a certain point. There's a good article that goes over how the SPR works and its current status here if you're interested: https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-106918/index.html https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-106918/index.html

fc417fc802 13d ago
Either way it seems the US has somewhere from 1 to 8 months before accounting for reductions due to national considerations. That's concerning no matter how you frame it. What's the outlook for the other major economies?
- disgruntledphd2 12d ago
  Much, much worse for the EU, probably about the same for China (based on their actions so far).
omgwtfbyobbq 13d ago
The problem with drawdowns is they can and have compromised the structural integrity of the caverns used in the SPR. Like oil, they're a finite resource and should be used judiciously. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2585591 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2585591

sandworm101 12d ago

What a great time to start a trade war with the largest oil exporter. Think there is a shortage now? Just think what happens when canada turns off the taps. Even the threat could trigger covid-style hoarding.

goalieca 12d ago
Our oil travels across our country via the USA. We also depend heavily on USA refining in certain provinces. This will never happen.
- xethos 12d ago
  The trade war was claimed to be in part kicked off by a trade deficit - meaning Alberta is simultaneously a major cause of the trade war (by moving so much of their oil south for things refinement, and contributing to the trade imbalance), and a stumbling block for Canada to effectively fight back. Tariffs on Albertan oil will be looked at (by Albertans) as the Liberal PM hurting them out of malice, instead of a cudgel to fight back against Goliath
  - goalieca 12d ago
    The trade war tarrifs are punishing Alberta the least. Ontario and Quebec are taking more of it.
    - xethos 12d ago
      Precisely - Carney can't tariff Albertan oil without stoking seperatist rhetoric, which Smith is using as a political tool instead of stating outright Alberta will always be part of a Canada, and shutting down the [real or manufactured] movement
      - goalieca 12d ago
        What I meant to say is the USA didn’t care about Alberta. They’re about supply management, subsidies in manufacturing and lumber and dairy and that. Alberta has their hands clean in this one.

bawolff 12d ago

> The Saudi pipeline that was attacked had a capacity of 7M barrels per day. Gone for who knows how long. That 7MBPD that needs to come from somewhere. it probably depends on what exactly happened to the pipeline, but normally i'd expect this to be a short term disruption, as replacing a small segment isn't really that hard. The real question is will it be struck over and over again.

pseudohadamard 12d ago
The Houthis destroyed a pumping station, you don't just plug in a new one of those in a week or two. Also given the length of the pipeline they can just take out more parts of it at their leisure.
- bawolff 12d ago
  I'd disagree, i think a single pumping station can be fixed relatively quickly. The real problem is your second sentence - if Houthis just keep blowing it up every time the Saudis fix it.
  - pseudohadamard 11d ago
    A fault at a pumping station, for example a broken valve, can be fixed relatively quickly, you pull a spare out of storage and install it, taking maybe a couple of days if it's a critical-path component that can't be bypassed and you need to shut down and commission-test afterwards. This isn't a fault though, what the Houthis have done is turned the whole site into a blackened pile of twisted metal, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline-drone-attack-houthis-global-oil-supply-prices https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline.... The remedy isn't to replace a part, it's to clear the entire site of debris and rebuild it from the ground up. And that's assuming the material to build a complete pumping station is just lying around in a yard somewhere and doesn't need to be manufactured on demand with an 18-month lead time - the story quotes 1 1/2 months to repair, but who knows what it'll actually be.