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This is about consolidation of power. Open weight models are catching up to the frontier. It also seems like frontier models reached some limit, whether this i

This is about consolidation of power. Open weight models are catching up to the frontier. It also seems like frontier models reached some limit, whether this is capex related, business model related or something else. Nobody knows but it's happening to all frontier labs it seems. It's been fear mongered many times that ai will kill us all. But this time, a person with around 2-3 months of tenure at anthropic managed to go viral with no previous social media account activity, gets picked up by all news outlets and kicks off yet another round of fear mongering. So the real questions to ask * is all of this to increase the valuations before IPO? * what is the real barrier to entry for open weight models to be used by the public? * what is the Financials of these companies showing that's causing this outcry on safety? People need to think really critically about the things happening around them. Don't only just look at the face value of what's being presented here.

aroman 21d ago
> It also seems like frontier models reached some limit, whether this is capex related, business model related or something else. Nobody knows but it's happening to all frontier labs it seems. What’s your evidence of this? On the contrary, the large closed frontier models capability has advanced dramatically over the past 6 months… even the past 3 months…
- knollimar 21d ago
  So have the open weight ones but faster? I don't have a horse in this argument but catching up doesn't imply the one in the lead has stagnated
- aerhardt 21d ago
  I've used Astra, Fable 5.1, Sol 5.6, Opus 5. They're definitely making progress and the proof is in the pudding - I reach for the most advanced model as much as I can. But I wouldn't say their capabilities have increased dramatically. I use it for both coding and non-coding workloads and I don't feel I can do anything dramatically different. Again at the end of the day this is a debate on semantics because we can have very different definitions of "dramatic improvement". (I'm not factoring the benchmarks into the discussion, because I've never quite cared about them)

aroman 21d ago

> It also seems like frontier models reached some limit, whether this is capex related, business model related or something else. Nobody knows but it's happening to all frontier labs it seems. What’s your evidence of this? On the contrary, the large closed frontier models capability has advanced dramatically over the past 6 months… even the past 3 months…

knollimar 21d ago
So have the open weight ones but faster? I don't have a horse in this argument but catching up doesn't imply the one in the lead has stagnated
aerhardt 21d ago
I've used Astra, Fable 5.1, Sol 5.6, Opus 5. They're definitely making progress and the proof is in the pudding - I reach for the most advanced model as much as I can. But I wouldn't say their capabilities have increased dramatically. I use it for both coding and non-coding workloads and I don't feel I can do anything dramatically different. Again at the end of the day this is a debate on semantics because we can have very different definitions of "dramatic improvement". (I'm not factoring the benchmarks into the discussion, because I've never quite cared about them)