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The problem with your opinions is that you tend to state certain very quesitonable ideas with 100% confidence. Right now, we don't know if AI will be able to so

The problem with your opinions is that you tend to state certain very quesitonable ideas with 100% confidence. Right now, we don't know if AI will be able to solve bigger problems, or if they'll be so efficients that you no longer need a whole datacenter for running them. We don't even know how much of creative work they are able to do. We cannot make decisions that could destroy decades of progress just because of hype.

Dylan16807 23d ago
We don't know how good models will get, but the pattern of open weight models keeping up on a relatively short delay has been holding pretty well. And even among the proprietary models there's healthy competition. The concentration of resources is pretty well counteracted by these factors.
eru 23d ago
> Right now, we don't know if AI will be able to solve bigger problems, or if they'll be so efficients that you no longer need a whole datacenter for running them. For the latter: I assume that having a whole data centre will always be an advantage. I am saying that for a fixed target, like proving the Rieman hypothesis from scratch, the required hardware will shrink. And, yes, the Rieman hypothesis hasn't been proven yet. So to take your fears into account, replace my example with something they've already done, like constructing a solution to the Navier-Stokes-problem.
- robotpepi 22d ago
  > I am saying that for a fixed target, like proving the Rieman hypothesis from scratch, the required hardware will shrink. Yes, but to what point the hardware will shrink? There are several orders of magnitude of difference in what in your mind AI will become and what more conservative people believe. You take your view as granted...
  - eru 22d ago
    Exponential growth in hardware's capabilities, like we are used to, means that several orders of magnitude are a matter of a relatively short time.

Dylan16807 23d ago

We don't know how good models will get, but the pattern of open weight models keeping up on a relatively short delay has been holding pretty well. And even among the proprietary models there's healthy competition. The concentration of resources is pretty well counteracted by these factors.

eru 23d ago

> Right now, we don't know if AI will be able to solve bigger problems, or if they'll be so efficients that you no longer need a whole datacenter for running them. For the latter: I assume that having a whole data centre will always be an advantage. I am saying that for a fixed target, like proving the Rieman hypothesis from scratch, the required hardware will shrink. And, yes, the Rieman hypothesis hasn't been proven yet. So to take your fears into account, replace my example with something they've already done, like constructing a solution to the Navier-Stokes-problem.

robotpepi 22d ago
> I am saying that for a fixed target, like proving the Rieman hypothesis from scratch, the required hardware will shrink. Yes, but to what point the hardware will shrink? There are several orders of magnitude of difference in what in your mind AI will become and what more conservative people believe. You take your view as granted...
- eru 22d ago
  Exponential growth in hardware's capabilities, like we are used to, means that several orders of magnitude are a matter of a relatively short time.