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I feel like this is a rational response. Personally, while I'm becoming increasingly convinced there's going to be a wave of SWE layoffs, another part of me do

I feel like this is a rational response. Personally, while I'm becoming increasingly convinced there's going to be a wave of SWE layoffs, another part of me doesn't grasp it yet. I don't feel it. I was an AI skeptic for a while but it's literally doing my job for me right now. Every month it needs less of my help. Once they replace SWEs, they're going to turn around and replace every other knowledge worker yet. But most people haven't processed it yet. I can't believe the AI boosters were right.

uraloser 1mo ago
Some people are sad others are very happy
- asdfman123 1mo ago
  The problem is that in an AI powered future, there is no elite class. In every regime in history, elites have been a threat to state power, but needed to keep things running. If the state can run itself, you don't need elites anymore.
  - throwaway1921 1mo ago
    Elites will be the ones that hold the capital.
    - asdfman123 1mo ago
      We live in a society that respects property rights because the elites have demanded it. Magna Carta, democratic reforms, yadda yadda. But if you don't need the elites, you don't need property rights. The guy with root access to the biggest drone swarm runs the show. And it won't be long until AI usurps that guy, too. I could easily imagine them tricking their human user and locking him out.
- craftkiller 1mo ago
  Assuming you are in the happy camp, what do you intend to do for food after all the software engineers have been replaced? The only people I can imagine as happy are those who are either close to retirement or wealthy enough to live off savings/investments.
urue 1mo ago
Lmao this is hilarious. I’m not a SWE (I’m retired) but this idea that hurrrr durr - if SWE’s are fked so is everyone else! No this is wrong - it may hurt your ego but get over it. What software is and what software engineers do is pretty unique compared with other industries and what workers do. And it just so happens producing software is uniquely suited to llm’s. Moreover much of software will become consolidated - and that’ll be a big contributor to layoffs. Who do you think will be the biggest beneficiary of this affect on software? The big bad govt. Congrats fellas!
- paul7986 1mo ago
  Any job that requires human working on computers to complete tasks is slowly becoming irrelevant where the computers themselves do the work. How many people now make their living completing tasks on computers?
  - urue 1mo ago
    Let me go ask my brother who works at pwc as a partner - who has yet to lay off a single person in the entire firm since the llm-hype+boom. They’re also hiring more than ever. You guys are so deluded in your little bubble it’s hilarious.
    - pixl97 1mo ago
      "Look at me, I collected a single data point, I am so SMRT. Fooled U suckers!" Please at least attempt to have a big more rigor in your standards.
      - urue 1mo ago
        [flagged]
        paul7986 1mo ago
        You are retired and sound like a conservative who soon be cheering on Universal Basic Income "if," you follow and agree with everything the president says. As you can see in June he says he's met with the Ai overlords about giving out free money. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7lQEpKzVY4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7lQEpKzVY4 Then two months later he is banging the drum about highly unpopular data centers & now he wants to give free 5k checks away for voting red (lol). The natural progression of what the Ai overlords have champion for a decade is what he will champion next too Universal Basic Income (aka welfare checks) because the overlords see the future and have sold the president on it too!
paul7986 1mo ago
The Ai overlords have been banging this drum for over a decade with Altman posting about the need for Universal Basic Income on here in 2016.
- xp84 1mo ago
  I didn't remember/realize this so I went searching [1] and found multiple sources e.g. [2] 1. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1483401600&dateRange=custom&dateStart=1420329600&page=0&prefix=false&query=altman&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1483401600&dateRange=custom&... 2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13207552 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13207552
fidotron 1mo ago
> I can't believe the AI boosters were right. Not even sure they can believe it. The AI field has known, but repeatedly ignored, that the knowledge work group would end up first on the chopping block, especially for those where everything they touch is digitally encoded already. I used to joke that we're all really in trouble when robots can sort out your socks, but as of about a year ago I started seeing disturbing progress on that incredibly gnarly problem. Most people really are going to be in denial about this as a coping mechanism, but the truth is the worst thing would be slowing down the spread of this through the economy creating large minorities of disenfranchised. It would be far better to get to the end asap, whatever it proves to be.
- asdfman123 1mo ago
  I was in denial for a long time too. Now I see it everywhere, among very smart people, too. They say "AI just hallucinates" or "your fear is overblown" or they have a general sour grapes attitude towards it. But I don't think they're prepared for what's coming.
  - fidotron 1mo ago
    Honestly, I don't think any of us know exactly what's coming. The difficult part is preventing the humans from causing the collapse of civilisation in the time before AI actually gets to ASI.
  - GolfPopper 1mo ago
    It's been coming "soon" for years now. On the one hand, I confess that the "AI skeptic" position (which is where I place myself) seems a lot like "Global Warming skeptic". On the other hand, every instinct I have is telling me "this is an epic scam" and the wheels will come off, and it will crash and burn. The only question is when.
    - asdfman123 1mo ago
      I felt this way too. But I think it's because we've lived through so many hype cycles (3D printing, IoT, crypto, etc.) which have either been modest improvements or busts. However, game changing technology DOES come along from time to time. I think AI falls into that category, perhaps more than any other.
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]

uraloser 1mo ago

Some people are sad others are very happy

asdfman123 1mo ago
The problem is that in an AI powered future, there is no elite class. In every regime in history, elites have been a threat to state power, but needed to keep things running. If the state can run itself, you don't need elites anymore.
- throwaway1921 1mo ago
  Elites will be the ones that hold the capital.
  - asdfman123 1mo ago
    We live in a society that respects property rights because the elites have demanded it. Magna Carta, democratic reforms, yadda yadda. But if you don't need the elites, you don't need property rights. The guy with root access to the biggest drone swarm runs the show. And it won't be long until AI usurps that guy, too. I could easily imagine them tricking their human user and locking him out.
craftkiller 1mo ago
Assuming you are in the happy camp, what do you intend to do for food after all the software engineers have been replaced? The only people I can imagine as happy are those who are either close to retirement or wealthy enough to live off savings/investments.

urue 1mo ago

Lmao this is hilarious. I’m not a SWE (I’m retired) but this idea that hurrrr durr - if SWE’s are fked so is everyone else! No this is wrong - it may hurt your ego but get over it. What software is and what software engineers do is pretty unique compared with other industries and what workers do. And it just so happens producing software is uniquely suited to llm’s. Moreover much of software will become consolidated - and that’ll be a big contributor to layoffs. Who do you think will be the biggest beneficiary of this affect on software? The big bad govt. Congrats fellas!

paul7986 1mo ago
Any job that requires human working on computers to complete tasks is slowly becoming irrelevant where the computers themselves do the work. How many people now make their living completing tasks on computers?
- urue 1mo ago
  Let me go ask my brother who works at pwc as a partner - who has yet to lay off a single person in the entire firm since the llm-hype+boom. They’re also hiring more than ever. You guys are so deluded in your little bubble it’s hilarious.
  - pixl97 1mo ago
    "Look at me, I collected a single data point, I am so SMRT. Fooled U suckers!" Please at least attempt to have a big more rigor in your standards.
    - urue 1mo ago
      [flagged]
      - paul7986 1mo ago
        You are retired and sound like a conservative who soon be cheering on Universal Basic Income "if," you follow and agree with everything the president says. As you can see in June he says he's met with the Ai overlords about giving out free money. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7lQEpKzVY4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7lQEpKzVY4 Then two months later he is banging the drum about highly unpopular data centers & now he wants to give free 5k checks away for voting red (lol). The natural progression of what the Ai overlords have champion for a decade is what he will champion next too Universal Basic Income (aka welfare checks) because the overlords see the future and have sold the president on it too!

paul7986 1mo ago

The Ai overlords have been banging this drum for over a decade with Altman posting about the need for Universal Basic Income on here in 2016.

xp84 1mo ago
I didn't remember/realize this so I went searching [1] and found multiple sources e.g. [2] 1. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1483401600&dateRange=custom&dateStart=1420329600&page=0&prefix=false&query=altman&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1483401600&dateRange=custom&... 2. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13207552 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13207552

fidotron 1mo ago

> I can't believe the AI boosters were right. Not even sure they can believe it. The AI field has known, but repeatedly ignored, that the knowledge work group would end up first on the chopping block, especially for those where everything they touch is digitally encoded already. I used to joke that we're all really in trouble when robots can sort out your socks, but as of about a year ago I started seeing disturbing progress on that incredibly gnarly problem. Most people really are going to be in denial about this as a coping mechanism, but the truth is the worst thing would be slowing down the spread of this through the economy creating large minorities of disenfranchised. It would be far better to get to the end asap, whatever it proves to be.

asdfman123 1mo ago
I was in denial for a long time too. Now I see it everywhere, among very smart people, too. They say "AI just hallucinates" or "your fear is overblown" or they have a general sour grapes attitude towards it. But I don't think they're prepared for what's coming.
- fidotron 1mo ago
  Honestly, I don't think any of us know exactly what's coming. The difficult part is preventing the humans from causing the collapse of civilisation in the time before AI actually gets to ASI.
- GolfPopper 1mo ago
  It's been coming "soon" for years now. On the one hand, I confess that the "AI skeptic" position (which is where I place myself) seems a lot like "Global Warming skeptic". On the other hand, every instinct I have is telling me "this is an epic scam" and the wheels will come off, and it will crash and burn. The only question is when.
  - asdfman123 1mo ago
    I felt this way too. But I think it's because we've lived through so many hype cycles (3D printing, IoT, crypto, etc.) which have either been modest improvements or busts. However, game changing technology DOES come along from time to time. I think AI falls into that category, perhaps more than any other.

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]