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Do you think in the current situation they are more or less likely to try for a nuke than before?

by dalyons 21d ago

ericmay 21d ago
I don't think there's any change. But I think it's less possible.
- vjvjvjvjghv 21d ago
  I think they are more motivated than ever and other countries will follow. North Korea shows that Trump will kiss the ass of countries that have nuclear weapons, no matter how bad they are. And he will kick around countries that don’t have them. If I were Iran, I would put every possible effort into obtaining nuclear weapons. Probably from Trump’s best friend Kim Jong Un.
  - ericmay 21d ago
    > and other countries will follow You sound gleeful about the idea of nuclear proliferation. It's unfortunate that so many have stopped caring about the institutions and liberal world order we created. Oh well. If/once Iran gets one we'll give one to Saudi Arabia at least and make sure Israel's program is well supported. Then we can make sure Germany has them and Poland too if they want them. Korea and Japan will also get the green light. Anyone who opposes China/Russia will can get access to then and we can add a dozen or so countries to the nuclear armed states list. Why not?
    - m4rtink 21d ago
      Most of the countrues you name would be totally insane if they are not already running clendestine nuclear wepons programs, especially South Korea & Japan. They are not going to wait for uncertain handouts in the future.
    - vjvjvjvjghv 21d ago
      I am not gleeful at all about nuclear proliferation. Quite the opposite. It looks to me like the world order that has kept the western hemisphere peaceful and prosperous over the last 70 years is falling apart. And if AI and robotics take off, it's possible our capitalist model will also fall apart. Re: nuclear weapons. If the US gives up the role of protecting other friendly nations and NATO isn't viewed as reliable anymore, it makes sense to develop nuclear weapons. As a German I am starting to wonder if we should develop our own just in case Putin gets some ideas. And I am sure Japan and South Korea are having similar thoughts.
      - ericmay 21d ago
        > I am not gleeful at all about nuclear proliferation. Quite the opposite. It looks to me like the world order that has kept the western hemisphere peaceful and prosperous over the last 70 years is falling apart. And if AI and robotics take off, it's possible our capitalist model will also fall apart. Part of that preservation means a safe and stable Middle East and more countries not acquiring nuclear weapons. You simply cannot “negotiate” with Iran here. It’s no different than when Europeans (rightfully in my view) say there’s no negotiating with Putin and then go and complain about the US sending delegates to Russia trying to figure something out no matter how half-brained the Trump administration might be.
        defrost 21d ago
        > You simply cannot “negotiate” with Iran here. Likely not any more, not since Trump tore up US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). One bad faith act destroyed concerted effort by multiple countries that would have seen greater Iranian integration into the world and the falling off of internal extreme influence. Negotiation demonstrably worked, in the past, trust was destroyed .. who did that?
        ericmay 20d ago
        You're focusing on the JCPOA and what is clouding your judgement here is you are forgetting that even with the JCPOA Iran was loading up on ballistic missiles and drones, arming militias in Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon, and once Russia invaded Ukraine they immediately started working with the Russians to evade sanctions and supplied them with military hardware to prosecute their war. Are those the actions of a country that is really following the JCPOA? This is what a "negotiation" got us. The fact that Trump tore up the JCPOA isn't relevant because they shouldn't need to have an agreement to not build nuclear weapons in the first place! Is Vietnam or Brazil funding militias and loading up on military hardware and threatening to build a nuclear weapon unless they get some sort of special agreement to not do it? It wasn't "one bad faith act" there never needed to be an act in the first place and you're ignoring all of Iran's actions that themselves were bad faith!
- etchalon 21d ago
  There's zero evidence its less possible, including counter evidence it remains possible because we keep being told we have to attack Iran to prevent them from attaining a nuclear weapon. So apparently, we've yet to do anything to prevent them from doing it. We've just killed children.
  - ericmay 21d ago
    > We've just killed children. They killed more than 30,000 of their own people including children and support terrorist regimes in multiple countries that also kill children. > There's zero evidence its less possible On the other hand we bombed the nuclear facilities so what increase in nuclear weapons capability do they have that you are thinking about here? If there's something that has changed I'd be curious to read about it or your thoughts since that would change my opinion.
    - etchalon 21d ago
      So your argument is its cool that we killed children because they've also killed children? Hell of a take. The evidence we bombed their nuclear facilities is essentially this administration telling us we bombed their nuclear facilities. This administration does not have a track record of providing the public with honest assessments of their success. If we've successfully stopped them from developing a nuclear weapon, which was stated as the point of our preemptive aggression, I'd need a very good reason why we continue to spend billions attacking them.
      - ericmay 21d ago
        > So your argument is its cool that we killed children because they've also killed children? Hell of a take. No my take is we do it by accident and they do it on purpose and at a much larger scale and instead of pearl clutching about the US doing it on accident you should be pearl clutching about Iran doing it. I didn’t bring it up, but anytime someone brings up this whole “US killed kids” I’m happy to remind everyone that Iran is far worse. > The evidence we bombed their nuclear facilities is essentially this administration telling us we bombed their nuclear facilities. So? Do you not believe anything anyone says unless you see it for yourself? > If we've successfully stopped them from developing a nuclear weapon, which was stated as the point of our preemptive aggression, I'd need a very good reason why we continue to spend billions attacking them. Stopping the development of a nuclear weapon is an important goal but not the only one. We keep defending ourselves because they keep doing things like launching rockets at Kuwait, or shooting at American ships, or supporting those committing genocide or murder in Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. There is a very simple solution. Iran stops funding these groups, stops murdering their own people, stop launching rockets, and stops trying to build nuclear weapons. Once they do that and behave responsibility like just about every other country on the planet there aren’t any problems. Why is it that they can’t just stop doing these things?

Do you think in the current situation they are more or less likely to try for a nuke than before?

by dalyons 21d ago

Do you think in the current situation they are more or less likely to try for a nuke than before?

ericmay 21d ago

I don't think there's any change. But I think it's less possible.

vjvjvjvjghv 21d ago
I think they are more motivated than ever and other countries will follow. North Korea shows that Trump will kiss the ass of countries that have nuclear weapons, no matter how bad they are. And he will kick around countries that don’t have them. If I were Iran, I would put every possible effort into obtaining nuclear weapons. Probably from Trump’s best friend Kim Jong Un.
- ericmay 21d ago
  > and other countries will follow You sound gleeful about the idea of nuclear proliferation. It's unfortunate that so many have stopped caring about the institutions and liberal world order we created. Oh well. If/once Iran gets one we'll give one to Saudi Arabia at least and make sure Israel's program is well supported. Then we can make sure Germany has them and Poland too if they want them. Korea and Japan will also get the green light. Anyone who opposes China/Russia will can get access to then and we can add a dozen or so countries to the nuclear armed states list. Why not?
  - m4rtink 21d ago
    Most of the countrues you name would be totally insane if they are not already running clendestine nuclear wepons programs, especially South Korea & Japan. They are not going to wait for uncertain handouts in the future.
  - vjvjvjvjghv 21d ago
    I am not gleeful at all about nuclear proliferation. Quite the opposite. It looks to me like the world order that has kept the western hemisphere peaceful and prosperous over the last 70 years is falling apart. And if AI and robotics take off, it's possible our capitalist model will also fall apart. Re: nuclear weapons. If the US gives up the role of protecting other friendly nations and NATO isn't viewed as reliable anymore, it makes sense to develop nuclear weapons. As a German I am starting to wonder if we should develop our own just in case Putin gets some ideas. And I am sure Japan and South Korea are having similar thoughts.
    - ericmay 21d ago
      > I am not gleeful at all about nuclear proliferation. Quite the opposite. It looks to me like the world order that has kept the western hemisphere peaceful and prosperous over the last 70 years is falling apart. And if AI and robotics take off, it's possible our capitalist model will also fall apart. Part of that preservation means a safe and stable Middle East and more countries not acquiring nuclear weapons. You simply cannot “negotiate” with Iran here. It’s no different than when Europeans (rightfully in my view) say there’s no negotiating with Putin and then go and complain about the US sending delegates to Russia trying to figure something out no matter how half-brained the Trump administration might be.
      - defrost 21d ago
        > You simply cannot “negotiate” with Iran here. Likely not any more, not since Trump tore up US participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). One bad faith act destroyed concerted effort by multiple countries that would have seen greater Iranian integration into the world and the falling off of internal extreme influence. Negotiation demonstrably worked, in the past, trust was destroyed .. who did that?
        ericmay 20d ago
        You're focusing on the JCPOA and what is clouding your judgement here is you are forgetting that even with the JCPOA Iran was loading up on ballistic missiles and drones, arming militias in Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon, and once Russia invaded Ukraine they immediately started working with the Russians to evade sanctions and supplied them with military hardware to prosecute their war. Are those the actions of a country that is really following the JCPOA? This is what a "negotiation" got us. The fact that Trump tore up the JCPOA isn't relevant because they shouldn't need to have an agreement to not build nuclear weapons in the first place! Is Vietnam or Brazil funding militias and loading up on military hardware and threatening to build a nuclear weapon unless they get some sort of special agreement to not do it? It wasn't "one bad faith act" there never needed to be an act in the first place and you're ignoring all of Iran's actions that themselves were bad faith!
etchalon 21d ago
There's zero evidence its less possible, including counter evidence it remains possible because we keep being told we have to attack Iran to prevent them from attaining a nuclear weapon. So apparently, we've yet to do anything to prevent them from doing it. We've just killed children.
- ericmay 21d ago
  > We've just killed children. They killed more than 30,000 of their own people including children and support terrorist regimes in multiple countries that also kill children. > There's zero evidence its less possible On the other hand we bombed the nuclear facilities so what increase in nuclear weapons capability do they have that you are thinking about here? If there's something that has changed I'd be curious to read about it or your thoughts since that would change my opinion.
  - etchalon 21d ago
    So your argument is its cool that we killed children because they've also killed children? Hell of a take. The evidence we bombed their nuclear facilities is essentially this administration telling us we bombed their nuclear facilities. This administration does not have a track record of providing the public with honest assessments of their success. If we've successfully stopped them from developing a nuclear weapon, which was stated as the point of our preemptive aggression, I'd need a very good reason why we continue to spend billions attacking them.
    - ericmay 21d ago
      > So your argument is its cool that we killed children because they've also killed children? Hell of a take. No my take is we do it by accident and they do it on purpose and at a much larger scale and instead of pearl clutching about the US doing it on accident you should be pearl clutching about Iran doing it. I didn’t bring it up, but anytime someone brings up this whole “US killed kids” I’m happy to remind everyone that Iran is far worse. > The evidence we bombed their nuclear facilities is essentially this administration telling us we bombed their nuclear facilities. So? Do you not believe anything anyone says unless you see it for yourself? > If we've successfully stopped them from developing a nuclear weapon, which was stated as the point of our preemptive aggression, I'd need a very good reason why we continue to spend billions attacking them. Stopping the development of a nuclear weapon is an important goal but not the only one. We keep defending ourselves because they keep doing things like launching rockets at Kuwait, or shooting at American ships, or supporting those committing genocide or murder in Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. There is a very simple solution. Iran stops funding these groups, stops murdering their own people, stop launching rockets, and stops trying to build nuclear weapons. Once they do that and behave responsibility like just about every other country on the planet there aren’t any problems. Why is it that they can’t just stop doing these things?