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"mass-production of humanoid robots is now inevitable in the next five years" My take? Probably not. It takes immense capital (which i guess, arguably, there is
by I_dream_of_Geni 29d ago
"mass-production of humanoid robots is now inevitable in the next five years"
My take? Probably not. It takes immense capital (which i guess, arguably, there is), and immense time and manpower to set up factories, research materials, Research and Development, manufacturing new machines to build the "new machines", and on and on. As Elon Musk found, "Making cars is hard". And my take is that high precision "humanoid robots" are decades away. Yes, yes, I hear the arguments flowing in: "But China!!" yeah, China is making humanoid robots that are "skilled" in running and jumping and dancing. In limited numbers, and certainly not useful in high precision manufacturing areas. Plus, they aren't washing machines. There has to be a market worldwide for these to be made "by the billions". Unless China gives them away, the 'average person' won't be able to afford them, and even then, I doubt they'll be capable of tending your garden and doing dishes. The amount of power they will consume is currently WAY PAST the usefulness criteria. They will have to be charged every few hours or sooner, depending upon the tasks. When battery technology comes around, then you'll see an uptick in practical uses. Until then? Billions of robots?, nope.
- busymom0 28d agoTo be fair, what we have seen with the insane investments in AI so far, needing immense capital is no longer an issue.
- grebc 28d agoThe only insanity is the multiples applied to select people’s equity. Everyone is talking about contracted revenue like it’s money in the bank.
- charlieyu1 28d agoIt is much harder for robots. Raw materials and manufacturing is expensive. We already have some decent robots, just too expensive for daily tasks.
- m4rtink 28d agoHuge investment does not guarantee hunge profits - or actually any profits at all. Otherwise the whole surface of the Earth would be by this point fully covered by railway track, tulip seeds or fiber optic cable. Well, there are actually places where the third option is true...
- marginalia_nu 28d agoWhat would even be the point of mass producing humanoid robots? It's not a particularly practical shape for a robot. We have the shape we do because it's a local minimum that accommodates our biological needs (eating, digestion, blood oxygenation and purification, reproduction), all needs that a robot does not have. A humanoid robot is "horseless carriage" mentality if I ever saw one.
- david-gpu 28d agoThe world is full of places and devices that are specifically designed for the human form. A humanoid robot can seamlessly use all of that, without changing any of them. That massive economic incentive is why humanoid robots are being pursued, not because researchers lack imagination.
- marginalia_nu 28d agoWouldn't it be an even bigger economic incentive to not have to go through this inefficient humanoid interface? Anyway, even with the constraint of being able to operate human interfaces, a robot can look many different ways. Like most of the torso just doesn't make sense for a robot. There's also a ton of obvious improvements. 360 degree vision. Put a camera in each hand too while we're at it. CCD sensors and basic lenses costs next to nothing and it's very easy to replace.
- GlenTheMachine 28d agoI suspect that if/when we get to a world where it makes economic sense to manufacture billions of robots, it’ll be easier and cheaper to modify the infrastructure.
- preg_match 28d agoIt might just be cheaper to change the not-robot things to fit a robot shape rather than create humanoid robots. For example, spending ungodly amounts of money to develop a humanoid to flip burgers feels overkill. Probably cheaper to just… replace the flattop grill with an automatic cooker. Which do exist, right now, and have for decades.