4 ms·

It has bothered me for a while that something like 50% of retail sales happen in November and December. It really makes is seem like around 25% of the retail e

It has bothered me for a while that something like 50% of retail sales happen in November and December. It really makes is seem like around 25% of the retail economy is people buying stuff for others that the others did not value enough to buy for themselves. That's a pretty huge distortion in the market.

dalke 14y ago
50% is unbelievably high. The numbers are just under 20% (18.8% of retail sales), says http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1234 http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1234 . Jewelry stores are the highest, and they make under 30% of their sales during November and December. If evenly distributed, then the average sales for 2/12 months would be 17% of yearly sales. While still quite significant, it's not as enormous a disparity as you thought.
- corysama 14y ago
  That's good to hear. My numbers were from some retailers I knew. Their biz must have been pretty skewed towards the holiday. Thanks for digging out that report!
  - dalke 14y ago
    You may have heard them say "profit", and not "sales." Figure that those two months are 10% higher sales than the rest of the year (19%-17%=2%, and 2/16=12.5%), and that expenses are averaged out over the year while revenue is more seasonal. If normal profit is 5%, then 10 months at 5% and two months at 15% gives 30/(50+30) = 40% of the profit is made during November/December. Or, if it's break-even during 10 months, with $100 million in revenue and expenses, while during November/December it's $101 million in revenue and $100 million in expenses, then the entire yearly profit of $2 million is made during those two months. Although that's only 4/1200 = 0.3% of gross.
tomjen3 14y ago
That may happen for some of the gifts, but I have made a habit of buying things that the receiver wants, but doesn't know exists -- i am pretty good at it too.

dalke 14y ago

50% is unbelievably high. The numbers are just under 20% (18.8% of retail sales), says http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1234 http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1234 . Jewelry stores are the highest, and they make under 30% of their sales during November and December. If evenly distributed, then the average sales for 2/12 months would be 17% of yearly sales. While still quite significant, it's not as enormous a disparity as you thought.

corysama 14y ago
That's good to hear. My numbers were from some retailers I knew. Their biz must have been pretty skewed towards the holiday. Thanks for digging out that report!
- dalke 14y ago
  You may have heard them say "profit", and not "sales." Figure that those two months are 10% higher sales than the rest of the year (19%-17%=2%, and 2/16=12.5%), and that expenses are averaged out over the year while revenue is more seasonal. If normal profit is 5%, then 10 months at 5% and two months at 15% gives 30/(50+30) = 40% of the profit is made during November/December. Or, if it's break-even during 10 months, with $100 million in revenue and expenses, while during November/December it's $101 million in revenue and $100 million in expenses, then the entire yearly profit of $2 million is made during those two months. Although that's only 4/1200 = 0.3% of gross.

tomjen3 14y ago

That may happen for some of the gifts, but I have made a habit of buying things that the receiver wants, but doesn't know exists -- i am pretty good at it too.