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Yeah but they markets don't equilibrate. Again, the 2022 election pool just reflected the thought of a big whale.
by freejazz 1mo ago
Yeah but they markets don't equilibrate. Again, the 2022 election pool just reflected the thought of a big whale.
- nomilk 1mo agoA whale just means the market gets more mis-priced, creating greater incentive for correction, which typically occurs. Let's for a moment say you're right, and prediction markets do have a flaw (that if someone wants to spend a lot of money making an outcome look more/less likely), that's an imperfection vs the many biases in other information sources. tl;dr prediction markets financially penalise providing misleading information, whereas traditional media profit from misleading information
- freejazz 26d agoStill waiting for anyone to point to any good done by prediction markets