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A partisan bet makes the opposite position slightly more profitable, attracting bets which equilibrate the market back at fair prices (i.e. realistic probabilit
by nomilk 29d ago
A partisan bet makes the opposite position slightly more profitable, attracting bets which equilibrate the market back at fair prices (i.e. realistic probabilities)
- freejazz 29d agoYeah but they markets don't equilibrate. Again, the 2022 election pool just reflected the thought of a big whale.
- nomilk 29d agoA whale just means the market gets more mis-priced, creating greater incentive for correction, which typically occurs. Let's for a moment say you're right, and prediction markets do have a flaw (that if someone wants to spend a lot of money making an outcome look more/less likely), that's an imperfection vs the many biases in other information sources. tl;dr prediction markets financially penalise providing misleading information, whereas traditional media profit from misleading information
- freejazz 24d agoStill waiting for anyone to point to any good done by prediction markets